Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate models indicate a maximum temperature of 28–29°C on July 17 as the most probable outcome, driven by stable high-pressure systems, moderate northerly winds, and typical mid-July atmospheric patterns that limit extreme heating. These align with Istanbul’s climatological July average high of 28–29°C while accounting for urban heat island effects and low precipitation chances. Model consensus shows limited spread, with some runs suggesting brief warming to 30–31°C if winds shift, though current guidance favors the lower end. Updated ECMWF and local Turkish Meteorological Service runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could refine these market-implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on July 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 17?
28°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$41,768 Обс.
$41,768 Обс.
Jul 17, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$41,768 Обс.
$41,768 Обс.
Jul 17, 2026
24°C or below
$550 Обс.
No
25°C
$1,066 Обс.
No
26°C
$2,377 Обс.
No
27°C
$3,965 Обс.
No
28°C
$10,686 Обс.
Yes
29°C
$11,975 Обс.
No
30°C
$3,834 Обс.
No
31°C
$4,349 Обс.
No
32°C
$1,014 Обс.
No
33°C
$1,604 Обс.
No
34°C or higher
$347 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate models indicate a maximum temperature of 28–29°C on July 17 as the most probable outcome, driven by stable high-pressure systems, moderate northerly winds, and typical mid-July atmospheric patterns that limit extreme heating. These align with Istanbul’s climatological July average high of 28–29°C while accounting for urban heat island effects and low precipitation chances. Model consensus shows limited spread, with some runs suggesting brief warming to 30–31°C if winds shift, though current guidance favors the lower end. Updated ECMWF and local Turkish Meteorological Service runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could refine these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Обсяг
$41,768Дата завершення
Jul 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate models indicate a maximum temperature of 28–29°C on July 17 as the most probable outcome, driven by stable high-pressure systems, moderate northerly winds, and typical mid-July atmospheric patterns that limit extreme heating. These align with Istanbul’s climatological July average high of 28–29°C while accounting for urban heat island effects and low precipitation chances. Model consensus shows limited spread, with some runs suggesting brief warming to 30–31°C if winds shift, though current guidance favors the lower end. Updated ECMWF and local Turkish Meteorological Service runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could refine these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$41,768Дата завершення
Jul 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate models indicate a maximum temperature of 28–29°C on July 17 as the most probable outcome, driven by stable high-pressure systems, moderate northerly winds, and typical mid-July atmospheric patterns that limit extreme heating. These align with Istanbul’s climatological July average high of 28–29°C while accounting for urban heat island effects and low precipitation chances. Model consensus shows limited spread, with some runs suggesting brief warming to 30–31°C if winds shift, though current guidance favors the lower end. Updated ECMWF and local Turkish Meteorological Service runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could refine these market-implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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