Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Istanbul's July 19 daily maximum near 28°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and modest northerly flow that limits extreme heating while allowing typical insolation. Bosphorus sea-breeze effects and variable boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty across the 27–29°C range, aligning with mid-July climatology of 28–30°C highs. Current conditions remain consistent with these projections, with no major synoptic shifts expected before the event. Trader consensus at 28°C (50%) reflects this model agreement, though updates from the Turkish Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs in the next 48 hours could adjust implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on July 19?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 19?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$27,578 Обс.
$27,578 Обс.
Jul 19, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$27,578 Обс.
$27,578 Обс.
Jul 19, 2026
23°C or below
$380 Обс.
No
24°C
$743 Обс.
No
25°C
$1,725 Обс.
No
26°C
$1,674 Обс.
No
27°C
$2,648 Обс.
No
28°C
$7,300 Обс.
Yes
29°C
$3,987 Обс.
No
30°C
$1,749 Обс.
No
31°C
$5,140 Обс.
No
32°C
$2,006 Обс.
No
33°C or higher
$225 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Istanbul's July 19 daily maximum near 28°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and modest northerly flow that limits extreme heating while allowing typical insolation. Bosphorus sea-breeze effects and variable boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty across the 27–29°C range, aligning with mid-July climatology of 28–30°C highs. Current conditions remain consistent with these projections, with no major synoptic shifts expected before the event. Trader consensus at 28°C (50%) reflects this model agreement, though updates from the Turkish Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs in the next 48 hours could adjust implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$27,578Дата завершення
Jul 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Istanbul's July 19 daily maximum near 28°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and modest northerly flow that limits extreme heating while allowing typical insolation. Bosphorus sea-breeze effects and variable boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty across the 27–29°C range, aligning with mid-July climatology of 28–30°C highs. Current conditions remain consistent with these projections, with no major synoptic shifts expected before the event. Trader consensus at 28°C (50%) reflects this model agreement, though updates from the Turkish Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs in the next 48 hours could adjust implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$27,578Дата завершення
Jul 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 17, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from global models position Istanbul's July 19 daily maximum near 28°C, driven by a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge and modest northerly flow that limits extreme heating while allowing typical insolation. Bosphorus sea-breeze effects and variable boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty across the 27–29°C range, aligning with mid-July climatology of 28–30°C highs. Current conditions remain consistent with these projections, with no major synoptic shifts expected before the event. Trader consensus at 28°C (50%) reflects this model agreement, though updates from the Turkish Meteorological Service or ECMWF runs in the next 48 hours could adjust implied probabilities ahead of official station resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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