Recent ensemble forecasts from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, converge on a daily maximum near 26–28°C for Istanbul on July 5, 2026, driven by persistent high pressure, light northerly flow off the Black Sea, and mostly clear skies that moderate daytime heating. These conditions match typical early-July climatology, where average highs reach 27–28°C with low precipitation risk and limited warm advection. Slight model spread around this range, plus minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, supports the market-implied concentration on 26°C (40.5%) and adjacent outcomes at 25–27°C. Updated runs over the next 48 hours, along with any shifts in regional pressure gradients, remain the key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on July 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 5?
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$68,617 Обс.
$68,617 Обс.
Jul 5, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$68,617 Обс.
$68,617 Обс.
Jul 5, 2026
23°C or below
$4,318 Обс.
No
24°C
$3,898 Обс.
No
25°C
$15,807 Обс.
No
26°C
$13,329 Обс.
No
27°C
$11,442 Обс.
Yes
28°C
$4,286 Обс.
No
29°C
$4,179 Обс.
No
30°C
$3,859 Обс.
No
31°C
$2,586 Обс.
No
32°C
$2,433 Обс.
No
33°C or higher
$2,478 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, converge on a daily maximum near 26–28°C for Istanbul on July 5, 2026, driven by persistent high pressure, light northerly flow off the Black Sea, and mostly clear skies that moderate daytime heating. These conditions match typical early-July climatology, where average highs reach 27–28°C with low precipitation risk and limited warm advection. Slight model spread around this range, plus minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, supports the market-implied concentration on 26°C (40.5%) and adjacent outcomes at 25–27°C. Updated runs over the next 48 hours, along with any shifts in regional pressure gradients, remain the key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$68,617Дата завершення
Jul 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, converge on a daily maximum near 26–28°C for Istanbul on July 5, 2026, driven by persistent high pressure, light northerly flow off the Black Sea, and mostly clear skies that moderate daytime heating. These conditions match typical early-July climatology, where average highs reach 27–28°C with low precipitation risk and limited warm advection. Slight model spread around this range, plus minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, supports the market-implied concentration on 26°C (40.5%) and adjacent outcomes at 25–27°C. Updated runs over the next 48 hours, along with any shifts in regional pressure gradients, remain the key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$68,617Дата завершення
Jul 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, converge on a daily maximum near 26–28°C for Istanbul on July 5, 2026, driven by persistent high pressure, light northerly flow off the Black Sea, and mostly clear skies that moderate daytime heating. These conditions match typical early-July climatology, where average highs reach 27–28°C with low precipitation risk and limited warm advection. Slight model spread around this range, plus minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, supports the market-implied concentration on 26°C (40.5%) and adjacent outcomes at 25–27°C. Updated runs over the next 48 hours, along with any shifts in regional pressure gradients, remain the key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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