Official NOAA observations from Istanbul Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 4 reached exactly 14°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome and reflecting traders' consensus on verified meteorological data. This unusually cool reading, 6–8°C below May seasonal norms of around 20–22°C, stems from a Black Sea-sourced low-pressure system that triggered a rare early-May cold snap across northwest Turkey, with cloudy skies, gusty northerlies, and scattered showers suppressing daytime heating. Turkish State Meteorological Service reports align with these station measurements, showing highs in the 12–15°C range regionally. Scenarios challenging this would require rare post-verification data corrections, such as sensor recalibrations, though official records rarely shift after initial reporting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 4?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 4?
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$84,525 Обс.
$84,525 Обс.
May 4, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$84,525 Обс.
$84,525 Обс.
May 4, 2026
10°C or below
$5,076 Обс.
No
11°C
$3,406 Обс.
No
12°C
$4,454 Обс.
No
13°C
$11,238 Обс.
No
14°C
$10,170 Обс.
Yes
15°C
$32,613 Обс.
No
16°C
$7,914 Обс.
No
17°C
$2,976 Обс.
No
18°C
$2,405 Обс.
No
19°C
$2,193 Обс.
No
20°C or higher
$2,081 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official NOAA observations from Istanbul Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 4 reached exactly 14°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome and reflecting traders' consensus on verified meteorological data. This unusually cool reading, 6–8°C below May seasonal norms of around 20–22°C, stems from a Black Sea-sourced low-pressure system that triggered a rare early-May cold snap across northwest Turkey, with cloudy skies, gusty northerlies, and scattered showers suppressing daytime heating. Turkish State Meteorological Service reports align with these station measurements, showing highs in the 12–15°C range regionally. Scenarios challenging this would require rare post-verification data corrections, such as sensor recalibrations, though official records rarely shift after initial reporting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$84,525Дата завершення
May 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official NOAA observations from Istanbul Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 4 reached exactly 14°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome and reflecting traders' consensus on verified meteorological data. This unusually cool reading, 6–8°C below May seasonal norms of around 20–22°C, stems from a Black Sea-sourced low-pressure system that triggered a rare early-May cold snap across northwest Turkey, with cloudy skies, gusty northerlies, and scattered showers suppressing daytime heating. Turkish State Meteorological Service reports align with these station measurements, showing highs in the 12–15°C range regionally. Scenarios challenging this would require rare post-verification data corrections, such as sensor recalibrations, though official records rarely shift after initial reporting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$84,525Дата завершення
May 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Official NOAA observations from Istanbul Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 4 reached exactly 14°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome and reflecting traders' consensus on verified meteorological data. This unusually cool reading, 6–8°C below May seasonal norms of around 20–22°C, stems from a Black Sea-sourced low-pressure system that triggered a rare early-May cold snap across northwest Turkey, with cloudy skies, gusty northerlies, and scattered showers suppressing daytime heating. Turkish State Meteorological Service reports align with these station measurements, showing highs in the 12–15°C range regionally. Scenarios challenging this would require rare post-verification data corrections, such as sensor recalibrations, though official records rarely shift after initial reporting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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