Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C in Moscow on April 18, backed by real-time observational data from NOAA at Vnukovo International Airport—the market's official resolution source—which recorded a midday peak of 10°C under overcast skies and light precipitation. This positioning stems from a sharp cold snap triggered by an influx of Arctic air over European Russia, following unseasonably warm highs near 16°C on April 16, as confirmed by Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS anticipated subdued warming due to persistent cloud cover and northerly winds, aligning with historical April climatology where daily maxima rarely exceed forecasts amid such synoptic patterns. With sunset approaching and minimal diurnal heating potential remaining, only an improbable sudden clearing and solar surge could challenge this, though official hourly reports through evening will finalize the record.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Moscow on April 18?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 18?
10°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$83,389 Обс.
$83,389 Обс.
Apr 18, 2026
6°C or below
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C or higher
No
10°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$83,389 Обс.
$83,389 Обс.
Apr 18, 2026
6°C or below
$7,089 Обс.
No
7°C
$6,025 Обс.
No
8°C
$7,761 Обс.
No
9°C
$14,953 Обс.
No
10°C
$17,718 Обс.
Yes
11°C
$7,621 Обс.
No
12°C
$7,228 Обс.
No
13°C
$5,936 Обс.
No
14°C
$3,396 Обс.
No
15°C
$3,033 Обс.
No
16°C or higher
$2,629 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C in Moscow on April 18, backed by real-time observational data from NOAA at Vnukovo International Airport—the market's official resolution source—which recorded a midday peak of 10°C under overcast skies and light precipitation. This positioning stems from a sharp cold snap triggered by an influx of Arctic air over European Russia, following unseasonably warm highs near 16°C on April 16, as confirmed by Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS anticipated subdued warming due to persistent cloud cover and northerly winds, aligning with historical April climatology where daily maxima rarely exceed forecasts amid such synoptic patterns. With sunset approaching and minimal diurnal heating potential remaining, only an improbable sudden clearing and solar surge could challenge this, though official hourly reports through evening will finalize the record.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 16, 2026, 1:48 AM ET
Обсяг
$83,389Дата завершення
Apr 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 1:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C in Moscow on April 18, backed by real-time observational data from NOAA at Vnukovo International Airport—the market's official resolution source—which recorded a midday peak of 10°C under overcast skies and light precipitation. This positioning stems from a sharp cold snap triggered by an influx of Arctic air over European Russia, following unseasonably warm highs near 16°C on April 16, as confirmed by Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS anticipated subdued warming due to persistent cloud cover and northerly winds, aligning with historical April climatology where daily maxima rarely exceed forecasts amid such synoptic patterns. With sunset approaching and minimal diurnal heating potential remaining, only an improbable sudden clearing and solar surge could challenge this, though official hourly reports through evening will finalize the record.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$83,389Дата завершення
Apr 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 16, 2026, 1:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C in Moscow on April 18, backed by real-time observational data from NOAA at Vnukovo International Airport—the market's official resolution source—which recorded a midday peak of 10°C under overcast skies and light precipitation. This positioning stems from a sharp cold snap triggered by an influx of Arctic air over European Russia, following unseasonably warm highs near 16°C on April 16, as confirmed by Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS anticipated subdued warming due to persistent cloud cover and northerly winds, aligning with historical April climatology where daily maxima rarely exceed forecasts amid such synoptic patterns. With sunset approaching and minimal diurnal heating potential remaining, only an improbable sudden clearing and solar surge could challenge this, though official hourly reports through evening will finalize the record.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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