Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 25?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 25?
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$109,028 Обс.
$109,028 Обс.
Apr 25, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$109,028 Обс.
$109,028 Обс.
Apr 25, 2026
12°C or below
$899 Обс.
No
13°C
$1,429 Обс.
No
14°C
$1,150 Обс.
No
15°C
$7,823 Обс.
No
16°C
$20,300 Обс.
No
17°C
$12,896 Обс.
No
18°C
$16,693 Обс.
Yes
19°C
$14,560 Обс.
No
20°C
$18,684 Обс.
No
21°C
$7,959 Обс.
No
22°C or higher
$6,637 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 23, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Обсяг
$109,028Дата завершення
Apr 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 23, 2026, 12:11 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$109,028Дата завершення
Apr 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 23, 2026, 12:11 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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