Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 30?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 30?
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$136,768 Обс.
$136,768 Обс.
Apr 30, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$136,768 Обс.
$136,768 Обс.
Apr 30, 2026
11°C or below
$2,284 Обс.
No
12°C
$1,918 Обс.
No
13°C
$14,289 Обс.
No
14°C
$29,558 Обс.
No
15°C
$15,355 Обс.
No
16°C
$16,848 Обс.
Yes
17°C
$16,899 Обс.
No
18°C
$14,025 Обс.
No
19°C
$9,406 Обс.
No
20°C
$7,826 Обс.
No
21°C or higher
$8,360 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$136,768Дата завершення
Apr 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$136,768Дата завершення
Apr 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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