Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and ensemble models have solidified trader consensus around a 24°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, May 11, with persistent cloud cover and a trough pattern limiting solar heating to match the daily normal of 23.3°C. Observations throughout the day, including social reports of 17–24°C ranges under mostly cloudy skies, show temperatures peaking near this threshold without exceeding it, driving the market-implied 100% probability for 24°C. This positioning reflects low atmospheric instability and subdued insolation, aligning with early May climatology. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for brief radiative warming to 25°C, though model consensus gives this less than 2% odds; final JMA observations post-midnight will confirm resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 11?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 11?
24°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$157,797 Обс.
$157,797 Обс.
May 11, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$157,797 Обс.
$157,797 Обс.
May 11, 2026
15°C or below
$761 Обс.
No
16°C
$1,742 Обс.
No
17°C
$578 Обс.
No
18°C
$427 Обс.
No
19°C
$2,556 Обс.
No
20°C
$2,183 Обс.
No
21°C
$4,284 Обс.
No
22°C
$12,127 Обс.
No
23°C
$84,569 Обс.
No
24°C
$20,324 Обс.
Yes
25°C or higher
$28,245 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and ensemble models have solidified trader consensus around a 24°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, May 11, with persistent cloud cover and a trough pattern limiting solar heating to match the daily normal of 23.3°C. Observations throughout the day, including social reports of 17–24°C ranges under mostly cloudy skies, show temperatures peaking near this threshold without exceeding it, driving the market-implied 100% probability for 24°C. This positioning reflects low atmospheric instability and subdued insolation, aligning with early May climatology. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for brief radiative warming to 25°C, though model consensus gives this less than 2% odds; final JMA observations post-midnight will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 9, 2026, 3:37 AM ET
Обсяг
$157,797Дата завершення
May 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 9, 2026, 3:37 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and ensemble models have solidified trader consensus around a 24°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, May 11, with persistent cloud cover and a trough pattern limiting solar heating to match the daily normal of 23.3°C. Observations throughout the day, including social reports of 17–24°C ranges under mostly cloudy skies, show temperatures peaking near this threshold without exceeding it, driving the market-implied 100% probability for 24°C. This positioning reflects low atmospheric instability and subdued insolation, aligning with early May climatology. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for brief radiative warming to 25°C, though model consensus gives this less than 2% odds; final JMA observations post-midnight will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$157,797Дата завершення
May 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 9, 2026, 3:37 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and ensemble models have solidified trader consensus around a 24°C maximum temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, May 11, with persistent cloud cover and a trough pattern limiting solar heating to match the daily normal of 23.3°C. Observations throughout the day, including social reports of 17–24°C ranges under mostly cloudy skies, show temperatures peaking near this threshold without exceeding it, driving the market-implied 100% probability for 24°C. This positioning reflects low atmospheric instability and subdued insolation, aligning with early May climatology. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for brief radiative warming to 25°C, though model consensus gives this less than 2% odds; final JMA observations post-midnight will confirm resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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