Recent polling in late August shows the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains extremely close, with Yes support narrowing to roughly 48–51% against 49–52% opposed and 8–9% undecided, producing a statistical dead heat across Maskína and Gallup surveys. Traders price the margin of victory tightly because fisheries sovereignty, cost-of-living pressures, and Arctic security concerns continue to divide voters, while the two-step process—negotiations followed by a potential second referendum—keeps many undecided on whether to grant the initial mandate. High expected turnout and last-minute shifts among independents sustain the competitive pricing reflected in current outcome probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNo 9–12% 47%
Yes 3–6% 36%
Yes 6–9% 22%
No 12–15% 19%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
4%
Yes 12–15%
9%
Yes 9–12%
1%
Yes 6–9%
22%
Yes 3–6%
23%
Yes <3%
27%
No <3%
42%
No 3–6%
24%
No 6–9%
24%
No 9–12%
47%
No 12–15%
19%
No 15%+
19%
No 9–12% 47%
Yes 3–6% 36%
Yes 6–9% 22%
No 12–15% 19%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
$94 Обс.
4%
Yes 12–15%
$87 Обс.
9%
Yes 9–12%
$21 Обс.
1%
Yes 6–9%
$11 Обс.
22%
Yes 3–6%
$44 Обс.
23%
Yes <3%
$44 Обс.
27%
No <3%
$43 Обс.
42%
No 3–6%
$24 Обс.
24%
No 6–9%
$24 Обс.
24%
No 9–12%
$22 Обс.
47%
No 12–15%
$86 Обс.
19%
No 15%+
$16 Обс.
19%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polling in late August shows the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains extremely close, with Yes support narrowing to roughly 48–51% against 49–52% opposed and 8–9% undecided, producing a statistical dead heat across Maskína and Gallup surveys. Traders price the margin of victory tightly because fisheries sovereignty, cost-of-living pressures, and Arctic security concerns continue to divide voters, while the two-step process—negotiations followed by a potential second referendum—keeps many undecided on whether to grant the initial mandate. High expected turnout and last-minute shifts among independents sustain the competitive pricing reflected in current outcome probabilities.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Обсяг
$517Дата завершення
Aug 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polling in late August shows the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains extremely close, with Yes support narrowing to roughly 48–51% against 49–52% opposed and 8–9% undecided, producing a statistical dead heat across Maskína and Gallup surveys. Traders price the margin of victory tightly because fisheries sovereignty, cost-of-living pressures, and Arctic security concerns continue to divide voters, while the two-step process—negotiations followed by a potential second referendum—keeps many undecided on whether to grant the initial mandate. High expected turnout and last-minute shifts among independents sustain the competitive pricing reflected in current outcome probabilities.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Обсяг
$517Дата завершення
Aug 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in late August shows the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains extremely close, with Yes support narrowing to roughly 48–51% against 49–52% opposed and 8–9% undecided, producing a statistical dead heat across Maskína and Gallup surveys. Traders price the margin of victory tightly because fisheries sovereignty, cost-of-living pressures, and Arctic security concerns continue to divide voters, while the two-step process—negotiations followed by a potential second referendum—keeps many undecided on whether to grant the initial mandate. High expected turnout and last-minute shifts among independents sustain the competitive pricing reflected in current outcome probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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