Recent intelligence assessments from US and Israeli sources, reported in early April 2026, claim Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—appointed by the Assembly of Experts after his father Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes—is unconscious and incapacitated in Qom, suffering severe facial wounds and possible leg amputation from the same attack. Iranian officials counter that he remains mentally sharp, issuing statements remotely amid wartime conditions and no public appearances. This fuels trader consensus on potential power vacuum risks, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf assuming prominent roles during the ongoing US-Iran-Israel conflict. Upcoming diplomatic talks in Pakistan and escalation signals could trigger Assembly intervention or further leadership shifts before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$9,251,542 Обс.
Apr 30, 2026
30 квітня
4%
31 травня
10%
30 червня
15%
31 грудня
31%
$9,251,542 Обс.
30 квітня
$3,217,123 Обс.
4%
31 травня
$537,824 Обс.
10%
30 червня
$475,366 Обс.
15%
31 грудня
$1,790,483 Обс.
31%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent intelligence assessments from US and Israeli sources, reported in early April 2026, claim Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—appointed by the Assembly of Experts after his father Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes—is unconscious and incapacitated in Qom, suffering severe facial wounds and possible leg amputation from the same attack. Iranian officials counter that he remains mentally sharp, issuing statements remotely amid wartime conditions and no public appearances. This fuels trader consensus on potential power vacuum risks, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf assuming prominent roles during the ongoing US-Iran-Israel conflict. Upcoming diplomatic talks in Pakistan and escalation signals could trigger Assembly intervention or further leadership shifts before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,251,542Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent intelligence assessments from US and Israeli sources, reported in early April 2026, claim Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—appointed by the Assembly of Experts after his father Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes—is unconscious and incapacitated in Qom, suffering severe facial wounds and possible leg amputation from the same attack. Iranian officials counter that he remains mentally sharp, issuing statements remotely amid wartime conditions and no public appearances. This fuels trader consensus on potential power vacuum risks, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf assuming prominent roles during the ongoing US-Iran-Israel conflict. Upcoming diplomatic talks in Pakistan and escalation signals could trigger Assembly intervention or further leadership shifts before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$9,251,542Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent intelligence assessments from US and Israeli sources, reported in early April 2026, claim Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—appointed by the Assembly of Experts after his father Ali Khamenei's death in late February US-Israeli strikes—is unconscious and incapacitated in Qom, suffering severe facial wounds and possible leg amputation from the same attack. Iranian officials counter that he remains mentally sharp, issuing statements remotely amid wartime conditions and no public appearances. This fuels trader consensus on potential power vacuum risks, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf assuming prominent roles during the ongoing US-Iran-Israel conflict. Upcoming diplomatic talks in Pakistan and escalation signals could trigger Assembly intervention or further leadership shifts before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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