The February 28, 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's first major succession since 1989, with the Assembly of Experts electing Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 9 via unanimous vote after a brief interim council phase. Ongoing military operations, IRGC consolidation, and economic pressures have shaped trader assessments of further shifts, while reports of the new leader's health challenges and emergency sessions have introduced volatility without derailing institutional continuity. Polymarket-implied probabilities for additional leadership change by late 2026 remain low, reflecting elite consensus and wartime dynamics, though scheduled diplomatic or escalation events through year-end could still test stability around the current supreme leader.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$23,718,169 Обс.
Aug 21, 2026
August 22
<1%
August 31
1%
September 30
5%
October 31
8%
November 30
10%
31 грудня
16%
June 30, 2027
25%
$23,718,169 Обс.
August 22
$74,564 Обс.
<1%
August 31
$1,227,497 Обс.
1%
September 30
$469,236 Обс.
5%
October 31
$19,995 Обс.
8%
November 30
$17,889 Обс.
10%
31 грудня
$4,053,684 Обс.
16%
June 30, 2027
$247,112 Обс.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The February 28, 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's first major succession since 1989, with the Assembly of Experts electing Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 9 via unanimous vote after a brief interim council phase. Ongoing military operations, IRGC consolidation, and economic pressures have shaped trader assessments of further shifts, while reports of the new leader's health challenges and emergency sessions have introduced volatility without derailing institutional continuity. Polymarket-implied probabilities for additional leadership change by late 2026 remain low, reflecting elite consensus and wartime dynamics, though scheduled diplomatic or escalation events through year-end could still test stability around the current supreme leader.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Обсяг
$23,718,169Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The February 28, 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's first major succession since 1989, with the Assembly of Experts electing Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 9 via unanimous vote after a brief interim council phase. Ongoing military operations, IRGC consolidation, and economic pressures have shaped trader assessments of further shifts, while reports of the new leader's health challenges and emergency sessions have introduced volatility without derailing institutional continuity. Polymarket-implied probabilities for additional leadership change by late 2026 remain low, reflecting elite consensus and wartime dynamics, though scheduled diplomatic or escalation events through year-end could still test stability around the current supreme leader.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$23,718,169Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The February 28, 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's first major succession since 1989, with the Assembly of Experts electing Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 9 via unanimous vote after a brief interim council phase. Ongoing military operations, IRGC consolidation, and economic pressures have shaped trader assessments of further shifts, while reports of the new leader's health challenges and emergency sessions have introduced volatility without derailing institutional continuity. Polymarket-implied probabilities for additional leadership change by late 2026 remain low, reflecting elite consensus and wartime dynamics, though scheduled diplomatic or escalation events through year-end could still test stability around the current supreme leader.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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