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icon for Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?
Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

icon for Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?
Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

Моджтаба Хаменеї 84.9%

Немає Глави держави 4.9%

Реза Пехлеві 2.7%

Махмуд Ахмадінеджад 1.8%

Polymarket

$39,551,356 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї 84.9%

Немає Глави держави 4.9%

Реза Пехлеві 2.7%

Махмуд Ахмадінеджад 1.8%

Polymarket

$39,551,356 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї

$6,560,109 Обс.

85%

Немає Глави держави

$1,162,725 Обс.

5%

Реза Пехлеві

$688,002 Обс.

3%

Махмуд Ахмадінеджад

$1,131,815 Обс.

2%

Хасан Рухані

$948,612 Обс.

1%

Аліреза Арафі

$2,320,954 Обс.

1%

Мохаммад-Багер Калібаф

$923,835 Обс.

<1%

Масуд Пезешкіан

$1,026,717 Обс.

<1%

Аббас Арагчі

$835,241 Обс.

<1%

Ахмад Вахіді

$780,911 Обс.

<1%

Мухаммад Мірбакірі

$462,631 Обс.

<1%

Хасан Хомейні

$1,443,808 Обс.

<1%

Массуд Раджаві

$406,939 Обс.

<1%

Навід Шомалі

$228,205 Обс.

<1%

Алі Мотахарі

$859,577 Обс.

<1%

Голам-Алі Хаддад-Адел

$441,490 Обс.

<1%

Садег Ларіджані

$563,115 Обс.

<1%

Хасан Шаріатмадинарі

$3,157,756 Обс.

<1%

Марʼям Раджаві

$864,867 Обс.

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавіан

$3,694,989 Обс.

<1%

Реза Пірзаде

$155,679 Обс.

<1%

Мустафа Хіджрі

$206,808 Обс.

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммаді

$3,360,621 Обс.

<1%

Садеґ Махсулі

$244,071 Обс.

<1%

Саїд Джалілі

$399,096 Обс.

<1%

Мохаммад Хатамі

$5,215,128 Обс.

<1%

Мохсен Аракі

$295,040 Обс.

<1%

Насір Хоссейні

$267,607 Обс.

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейні Хорасані

$314,518 Обс.

<1%

Алі Асґар Хеджазі

$353,629 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s strong position at 85% in the Iran leader end of 2026 market stems from his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts to succeed his assassinated father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid the ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps played a decisive role in consolidating support for the younger Khamenei during wartime deliberations, prioritizing institutional continuity and internal cohesion over objections to hereditary succession. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly confirmed his authority and survival despite his absence from public view due to injuries and security concerns. Recent releases of archival footage and statements have aimed to counter health speculation without altering the leadership structure. Lower-priced alternatives such as “No Head of State” or opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi reflect limited near-term prospects for regime collapse or alternative succession before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$39,551,356
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x69c47de9d...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s strong position at 85% in the Iran leader end of 2026 market stems from his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts to succeed his assassinated father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid the ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps played a decisive role in consolidating support for the younger Khamenei during wartime deliberations, prioritizing institutional continuity and internal cohesion over objections to hereditary succession. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly confirmed his authority and survival despite his absence from public view due to injuries and security concerns. Recent releases of archival footage and statements have aimed to counter health speculation without altering the leadership structure. Lower-priced alternatives such as “No Head of State” or opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi reflect limited near-term prospects for regime collapse or alternative succession before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$39,551,356
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x69c47de9d...

Пов'язане

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Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 32 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 85%, далі «Немає Глави держави» з 5%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» згенерував $39.6 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Feb 28, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?», перегляньте 32 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 85%. Наступний — «Немає Глави держави» з 5%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.