Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA access and halting uranium enrichment resumption according to Director of National Intelligence testimony in March 2026. U.S. intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's breakout timeline to a nuclear weapon remains approximately nine to twelve months if leaders decide to pursue one, reflecting slower repairs at nuclear facilities compared to missile infrastructure. Ongoing diplomatic proposals in spring 2026 address sanctions relief, potential pauses in enrichment, and stockpile management in exchange for ending hostilities, reinforcing trader expectations that full weaponization is unlikely before the end of 2026.