**Traders assign a 63.5% probability to "No" because recent developments show no momentum toward a Likud-Religious Zionist Party (RZP) joint list, while active efforts focus on other right-wing consolidations amid electoral pressures.** Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly urged far-right parties to unite ahead of the October 27, 2026 election to prevent wasted votes, particularly after polls showed Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing support and pushing RZP below the 3.25% threshold. Netanyahu publicly called for Otzma Yehudit (Ben-Gvir) and RZP (Smotrich) to form a technical bloc, but Ben-Gvir rejected the idea outright as “final and complete,” citing ego and strategic differences. Smotrich has similarly signaled preference for running independently or exploring limited alternatives like talks with former Likud MK Feiglin. RZP and Otzma Yehudit ran together in 2022 but split afterward, and current polling dynamics plus personal rivalries make a fresh Likud-RZP merger unlikely. Likud discussions have centered on reserved Knesset slots or alliances among smaller parties rather than absorbing RZP. With the election weeks away and no official announcements or agreements indicating a Likud-RZP slate, the trader consensus reflects the absence of any such development and the competitive pressures favoring separate runs or other pairings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено32% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 7, 2026
32% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 7, 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Traders assign a 63.5% probability to "No" because recent developments show no momentum toward a Likud-Religious Zionist Party (RZP) joint list, while active efforts focus on other right-wing consolidations amid electoral pressures.**
Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly urged far-right parties to unite ahead of the October 27, 2026 election to prevent wasted votes, particularly after polls showed Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing support and pushing RZP below the 3.25% threshold. Netanyahu publicly called for Otzma Yehudit (Ben-Gvir) and RZP (Smotrich) to form a technical bloc, but Ben-Gvir rejected the idea outright as “final and complete,” citing ego and strategic differences. Smotrich has similarly signaled preference for running independently or exploring limited alternatives like talks with former Likud MK Feiglin.
RZP and Otzma Yehudit ran together in 2022 but split afterward, and current polling dynamics plus personal rivalries make a fresh Likud-RZP merger unlikely. Likud discussions have centered on reserved Knesset slots or alliances among smaller parties rather than absorbing RZP. With the election weeks away and no official announcements or agreements indicating a Likud-RZP slate, the trader consensus reflects the absence of any such development and the competitive pressures favoring separate runs or other pairings.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Обсяг
$20Дата завершення
Sep 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Traders assign a 63.5% probability to "No" because recent developments show no momentum toward a Likud-Religious Zionist Party (RZP) joint list, while active efforts focus on other right-wing consolidations amid electoral pressures.**
Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly urged far-right parties to unite ahead of the October 27, 2026 election to prevent wasted votes, particularly after polls showed Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing support and pushing RZP below the 3.25% threshold. Netanyahu publicly called for Otzma Yehudit (Ben-Gvir) and RZP (Smotrich) to form a technical bloc, but Ben-Gvir rejected the idea outright as “final and complete,” citing ego and strategic differences. Smotrich has similarly signaled preference for running independently or exploring limited alternatives like talks with former Likud MK Feiglin.
RZP and Otzma Yehudit ran together in 2022 but split afterward, and current polling dynamics plus personal rivalries make a fresh Likud-RZP merger unlikely. Likud discussions have centered on reserved Knesset slots or alliances among smaller parties rather than absorbing RZP. With the election weeks away and no official announcements or agreements indicating a Likud-RZP slate, the trader consensus reflects the absence of any such development and the competitive pressures favoring separate runs or other pairings.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Обсяг
$20Дата завершення
Sep 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 63.5% probability to "No" because recent developments show no momentum toward a Likud-Religious Zionist Party (RZP) joint list, while active efforts focus on other right-wing consolidations amid electoral pressures.** Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly urged far-right parties to unite ahead of the October 27, 2026 election to prevent wasted votes, particularly after polls showed Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing support and pushing RZP below the 3.25% threshold. Netanyahu publicly called for Otzma Yehudit (Ben-Gvir) and RZP (Smotrich) to form a technical bloc, but Ben-Gvir rejected the idea outright as “final and complete,” citing ego and strategic differences. Smotrich has similarly signaled preference for running independently or exploring limited alternatives like talks with former Likud MK Feiglin. RZP and Otzma Yehudit ran together in 2022 but split afterward, and current polling dynamics plus personal rivalries make a fresh Likud-RZP merger unlikely. Likud discussions have centered on reserved Knesset slots or alliances among smaller parties rather than absorbing RZP. With the election weeks away and no official announcements or agreements indicating a Likud-RZP slate, the trader consensus reflects the absence of any such development and the competitive pressures favoring separate runs or other pairings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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