Israeli military operations in 2026 have centered on sustained airstrikes and ground actions against Iran since the February 28 outbreak of direct conflict, alongside expanded targeting of Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon. These actions, including strikes on leadership and military sites in both countries, form the core of recent activity amid ongoing proxy confrontations involving groups such as the Houthis and Iraqi militias. Renewed Israel-Iran exchanges in early June, following the April ceasefire, have reinforced trader focus on these two primary fronts without clear expansion to additional sovereign states. With half the year elapsed and diplomatic efforts ongoing, the market's emphasis on four or five countries reflects the current concentration of verified strikes and limited evidence of broader escalation to new targets like Syria or Yemen in the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issues fierce statement amid ongoing conflict
4 drops to 46%5%
Following the assassination of Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei took power and issued a strong statement, signaling continued hostilities and regional instability that affect Israeli military actions and market expectations.
Israeli drone strikes kill and injure in southern Lebanon despite US-brokered deal
On July 10, 2026, Israeli drone strikes targeted southern Lebanese villages, killing and injuring civilians despite a US-brokered framework agreement aimed at de-escalation. This event confirmed ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, maintaining market confidence in Lebanon as a strike location.
Israeli drone strikes continue in southern Lebanon despite US-brokered deal
On 10 July 2026, Israeli drones struck southern Lebanese villages including Kafr Rumman, killing a man and injuring others, indicating persistent Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil despite diplomatic efforts.
Israeli drone strikes kill civilians in southern Lebanon despite US-brokered framework deal
4 drops to 43%7%
On July 10, 2026, Israeli drone strikes killed a man and injured others in southern Lebanon, showing continued Israeli military activity in Lebanon despite diplomatic efforts to reduce hostilities.
Israeli drone strike kills man in southern Lebanon despite US-brokered deal
5 rises to 36%4%
On July 10, 2026, Israeli drones struck the southern Lebanese village of Kafr Rumman, killing a man despite a US-brokered framework agreement. This continued activity in Lebanon sustained market expectations of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Israel continues drone strikes in southern Lebanon despite US-Iran framework deal
Israel carried out drone strikes in southern Lebanon, including attacks in Kafr Rumman and Nabatieh districts, killing and injuring civilians. These strikes occurred despite a US-brokered framework agreement aimed at a phased Israeli withdrawal, confirming ongoing Israeli military activity in Lebanon.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on Gulf states including Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar
4 plunges to 44%16%
On July 9, 2026, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks targeting multiple Gulf countries, including Jordan and Kuwait. Israeli involvement in strikes on these countries was not reported, reducing market confidence in higher strike counts by Israel.
Iran launches retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan
5 drops to 28%8%
In retaliation, Iran targeted Western logistical and military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan with ballistic missiles and drones, indicating the conflict's expansion across multiple countries. Israeli responses to these attacks likely contributed to market expectations of strikes in these countries as well.
Israeli drone strike kills two in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire
4 dips to 52%2%
On July 8, 2026, Israel conducted a drone strike in southern Lebanon killing two people despite an ongoing ceasefire, indicating continued Israeli military activity in Lebanon during 2026.
Israeli drone strike kills three Palestinians in Gaza despite ceasefire
4 surges to 60%32%
On July 1, 2026, an Israeli drone strike near a Gaza hospital killed at least three Palestinians despite an ongoing ceasefire. This confirmed continued Israeli strikes limited to Gaza, supporting the market's view of a low number of countries struck by Israel.
Israel validates new Iron Dome upgrade to counter missile and drone attacks
On June 30, Israel announced successful validation of upgrades to its Iron Dome air defense system, enhancing its ability to counter mass missile and drone attacks. This development suggests Israel's focus on defense and precision strikes, with no indication of expanding strikes to additional countries.
Israel announces successful validation of upgraded Iron Dome air defense system
4 dips to 52%1%
On June 30, 2026, Israel's Ministry of Defense announced the successful validation of an upgraded Iron Dome system to counter mass missile and drone attacks. This development reflects Israel's focus on defense rather than expanding strikes to new countries, supporting the market's low probability for strikes beyond four countries.
Israel validates upgraded Iron Dome air defense system
4 drops to 47%6%
On June 30, Israel announced successful validation of an upgraded Iron Dome system to counter mass missile and drone attacks, reinforcing Israel's defensive capabilities. This development likely reduced market fears of Israeli strikes spreading to multiple countries, supporting lower strike count outcomes.
Israel continues drone and air strikes in southern Lebanon amid ceasefire talks
4 surges to 52%15%
Despite diplomatic efforts and a fragile ceasefire, Israel carried out drone and air strikes in southern Lebanon in late June 2026, targeting Hezbollah activity and security threats. This sustained military activity kept Lebanon as a key focus of Israeli strikes.
Israel faces new drone threats from Hezbollah in Lebanon
5 rises to 43%3%
Hezbollah deployed advanced drones over southern Lebanon and northern Israel, prompting Israel to accelerate counter-drone technology development. This reflects ongoing hostilities involving multiple countries and influences market expectations about Israeli strikes in the region.
Israel resumes airstrikes in southern Lebanon days after US-brokered peace deal
4 jumps to 45%5%
Despite a US-brokered agreement to end hostilities, Israel resumed airstrikes in southern Lebanon in late June 2026, indicating ongoing military operations on Lebanese soil during the year.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan
4 jumps to 50%10%
Following US strikes on Iranian targets, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan on June 28, 2026. This expanded the conflict to multiple countries in the Gulf region, influencing market expectations of strikes in these countries.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
Iran's IRGC launched missile and drone strikes on US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain on June 28, 2026, escalating regional tensions. However, these strikes were by Iran, not Israel, and thus did not affect the market's resolution regarding Israeli strikes on other countries.
Israel strikes southern Lebanon despite US-brokered security deal
4 surges to 41%17%
On June 28, 2026, Israel conducted drone strikes in southern Lebanon despite a US-brokered security agreement signed days earlier. This demonstrated ongoing Israeli military operations confined to Lebanon, reinforcing market confidence in a low number of countries struck.
Iranian drone strikes tanker in Strait of Hormuz, US retaliates with strikes on Iran
4 jumps to 50%12%
On June 27, 2026, an Iranian drone struck the Panama-flagged tanker M/T Kiku in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting US retaliatory strikes on Iranian military targets. This incident underscored the ongoing conflict in the strategic maritime chokepoint, affecting market perceptions of regional instability and potential strikes in countries bordering the strait.
Israel renews strikes in southern Lebanon despite peace framework
4 drops to 40%9%
Despite the June 26 framework agreement, Israel conducted drone and air strikes in southern Lebanon on June 27, escalating tensions and demonstrating ongoing military operations in Lebanese territory. Hezbollah rejected the deal, and clashes continued, reinforcing market expectations of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Israel strikes southern Lebanon amid new framework agreement
4 jumps to 53%10%
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed at least one person a day after Lebanon and Israel signed a framework agreement. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil, adding a second country to the count of countries struck by Israel in 2026.
U.S. launches strikes against Iran; Iran retaliates targeting U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
7 rises to 30%3%
U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military sites and Iran's retaliatory missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain escalated regional conflict, increasing the risk of Israeli strikes on multiple countries' soil allied with Iran.
Israel, Lebanon, and US sign framework agreement for Israeli withdrawal
4 surges to 49%25%
On June 26, 2026, Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered framework agreement outlining a path for Israeli withdrawal contingent on Hezbollah disarmament. This agreement was significant for the conflict dynamics in Lebanon, where Israeli strikes continued despite the deal, affecting market perceptions of strikes in Lebanon and related countries.
Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Over Renewed Israeli Strikes in Lebanon
4 rises to 53%4%
Iran announced the closure of the strategic waterway in response to intense Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon, threatening the fragile peace deal and raising the likelihood of wider regional strikes.
Israel hits oil installation in Iraq’s Kurdish region
11 rises to 11%1%
Israel carried out an air‑strike on an oil installation in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, the first reported Israeli attack on Kurdish territory, adding the Kurdistan Region as a distinct country‑level entity for market purposes.
Israeli airstrikes hit Lebanon minutes after new ceasefire
Minutes after a new ceasefire came into force between Israel and Hezbollah, Israeli airstrikes hit southern Lebanon, indicating the fragility of the ceasefire and ongoing hostilities. This event sustained market confidence in Lebanon being a strike target.
Israeli air strikes hit Lebanon minutes after new ceasefire
5 jumps to 50%5%
Minutes after a new ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect on June 19, 2026, Israeli air strikes hit southern Lebanon, indicating ongoing hostilities and continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. This event sustained market confidence in multiple strikes within Lebanon.
Israeli air strikes hit Lebanon minutes after new ceasefire
4 rises to 51%1%
Minutes after a new ceasefire came into effect between Israel and Hezbollah, Israeli air strikes targeted southern Lebanon, demonstrating the fragility of ceasefire agreements and ongoing hostilities in Lebanese territory.
Israeli airstrikes hit southern Lebanon minutes after new ceasefire
5 rises to 37%3%
Minutes after a new ceasefire took effect on June 19, 2026, Israeli airstrikes targeted southern Lebanon, indicating ongoing Israeli military operations in Lebanese territory despite diplomatic efforts. This sustained activity supported market expectations of Israel striking Lebanon in 2026.
Israeli air strikes hit southern Lebanon minutes after new ceasefire
On June 19, 2026, Israeli air strikes targeted southern Lebanon minutes after a new ceasefire took effect, indicating ongoing hostilities and confirming Lebanon as a repeatedly struck country in 2026.
Islamabad Memorandum signed to de-escalate regional conflict
4 rises to 54%4%
The Islamabad Memorandum, mediated by Pakistan, aimed to reduce hostilities following joint U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, impacting market expectations by potentially limiting the number of countries Israel would strike in 2026.
Israeli air strikes continue targeting southern Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
4 surges to 50%15%
Despite a formal agreement between the US and Iran to end the war, Israeli air strikes persisted in southern Lebanon, threatening the framework agreement. These ongoing strikes underscored Israel's continued military operations on Lebanese soil in 2026.
Israeli airstrikes continue targeting southern Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
4 plunges to 15%19%
Israeli airstrikes targeted towns in southern Lebanon despite a US-Iran agreement to end the war on all fronts. This ongoing conflict in Lebanon influenced market perceptions of Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil.
Israeli airstrikes continue in southern Lebanon despite US-Iran ceasefire deal
Despite a formal ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, Israeli airstrikes persisted in southern Lebanon, targeting towns such as Kfar Tebnit. This ongoing conflict threatened the stability of the ceasefire and underscored Israel's continued military operations on Lebanese soil.
Israeli Air Strikes on Lebanon Continue, Threatening US-Iran Deal
4 rises to 54%3%
Continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon despite diplomatic agreements kept the focus on Lebanon and Iran, solidifying the market's expectation of a lower total country count.
Israeli drone strikes kill at least four in southern Lebanon
On 16 June 2026, Israeli drone strikes targeted vehicles in southern Lebanon, killing at least four people, demonstrating ongoing Israeli military operations in Lebanon during 2026.
Israel carries out air strikes in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
On June 13, 2026, Israel conducted air strikes in southern Lebanon after ordering evacuations, continuing its campaign against Hezbollah and confirming sustained strikes on Lebanese territory during the year.
Israeli strikes kill 18 in Lebanon; missile fragments hit Israeli air base
4 surges to 36%23%
On 11 June 2026, Israeli airstrikes killed at least 18 people in southern Lebanon, including in Tyre District, while missile fragments from Iranian attacks hit an Israeli air base. This event confirmed ongoing Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil during 2026.
Turkey warns Israeli strikes on Syria and Lebanon threaten its security
5 rises to 5%4%
Turkish President Erdogan publicly warned that Israeli military strikes in Syria and Lebanon have escalated to a level that threatens Turkey's security, indicating regional spillover risks and potential future conflict involving Turkey.
Report Reveals Israel Launched Airstrikes Against Iran From Jordanian Airspace
4 surges to 51%17%
A military intelligence report revealed that Israel used Jordanian airspace to launch its airstrikes against Iran. While Jordan assisted defensively, the lack of direct Israeli strikes on Jordanian soil kept the country count from rising further.
Israel strikes military targets in Iran after Iranian missile attack
On June 8, 2026, Israel conducted air strikes on military targets in central and western Iran in retaliation for Iranian missile attacks, confirming continued Israeli strikes on Iranian soil in 2026.
Israel Strikes Iranian Military and Fuel Targets Following Missile Exchanges
4 surges to 48%19%
Israel launched fresh airstrikes on southwestern Iran, hitting a petrochemical complex in Mahshahr, while the Houthis fired missiles at Israel, keeping the conflict active across multiple fronts.
Iran launches missile strike on Israel, intercepted by Israeli air defenses
6 rises to 5%2%
Iran launched missile strikes on Israel, which were intercepted, signaling ongoing hostilities and the likelihood of Israeli strikes on Iranian or allied territories, influencing market expectations of strikes on multiple countries.
Israel conducts airstrikes on military targets in Iran after Iranian missile attack
4 jumps to 53%5%
On 8 June 2026, Israel launched airstrikes on military sites in central and western Iran in retaliation for Iranian missile attacks on Israel. This continued Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, confirming ongoing operations in at least these two countries.
Israel and Iran Exchange Direct Missile and Airstrikes Defying Ceasefire
4 surges to 54%17%
Israel launched retaliatory airstrikes on military and fuel targets inside Iran after Iranian forces fired ballistic missiles at northern Israel, breaking the April ceasefire.
Iran‑Israel missile and drone attacks intensify after cease‑fire
4 jumps to 52%6%
A Chosun article noted a post‑ceasefire escalation of missile and drone attacks between Iran and Israel, suggesting the conflict could spill over to other regional actors, causing a modest uptick in market odds for higher strike counts.
Israel resumes airstrikes on Iran after Iranian missile attacks
4 jumps to 33%8%
On June 8, 2026, Israel launched airstrikes on Iran following Iranian missile attacks on northern Israel, signaling renewed hostilities and reinforcing the ongoing conflict with Iran as a primary target country.
Israel strikes military targets in Iran after Iranian missile attack
5 rises to 34%3%
Following an Iranian missile attack, Israel conducted airstrikes on military targets in central and western Iran on June 8, 2026. This demonstrated continued Israeli military action on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's view of Iran as a key strike target country.
Israel conducts limited strikes on Iranian missile launch sites after Iranian missile attacks
4 jumps to 50%12%
Israel targeted Iranian surface-to-surface missile launch sites and infrastructure unrelated to the energy sector in response to Iranian ballistic missile attacks. This confirmed ongoing Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, maintaining the count of foreign countries struck at two (Iran and Lebanon).
Israeli and U.S. forces conduct rescue operation off Oman coast during Operation Epic Fury
5 rises to 40%4%
During ongoing operations, allied forces including Israel participated in rescue missions off Oman, highlighting the regional scope of military activities and Israel's operational reach beyond its borders.
Israel conducts air strikes on Iranian military targets after missile attack
4 rises to 43%3%
On June 8, 2026, Israel launched air strikes on military targets in central and western Iran in retaliation for Iranian ballistic missile attacks. This confirmed ongoing Israeli strikes on Iranian soil during the 2026 Iran war, impacting market expectations for strikes in Iran.
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iranian cities Tehran, Tabriz, and Isfahan
4 surges to 38%20%
On June 8, 2026, Israel carried out airstrikes targeting IRGC missile infrastructure and nuclear-linked facilities in Iranian cities, marking the first Israeli strikes on Iranian mainland since the April ceasefire. This escalation increased tensions and confirmed Israel's willingness to strike Iranian territory, impacting market expectations for strikes in multiple countries.
Israel strikes police post in southern Beirut after Hezbollah attack
Israel hit a police post in the Dahiyeh district of Beirut, Lebanon, after a Hezbollah attack. The strike was reported as a targeted Israeli attack on a specific urban area, reinforcing Lebanon’s role in the country tally.
Israel conducts airstrikes in southern Lebanon amid ceasefire tensions
5 rises to 30%3%
On June 7, 2026, Israel carried out airstrikes in southern Lebanon after ordering evacuations, despite ongoing ceasefire talks. This continued military activity in Lebanon reinforced the market's view of Lebanon as a distinct country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israel carries out airstrikes in southern Beirut in retaliation against Hezbollah
5 jumps to 43%10%
In June, Israel continued airstrikes in southern Beirut targeting Hezbollah militants, despite a US-Iran ceasefire agreement. These ongoing strikes in Lebanon sustained the market's view of Israel striking Lebanese territory during 2026.
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran in retaliation for Iranian missile attacks
4 jumps to 43%9%
Following Iranian missile attacks on Israel, including strikes on military bases, Israel launched airstrikes on military targets in central and western Iran. This continued the pattern of Israeli strikes on Iranian soil throughout 2026.
Israel strikes military targets in Iran after Iranian missile attack
4 rises to 44%2%
On June 7, 2026, Israel conducted air strikes on military targets in central and western Iran in retaliation for Iranian missile attacks on Israel. This confirmed ongoing Israeli strikes on Iranian soil during the conflict, supporting market confidence in strikes on Iran.
Israeli air strikes hit southern Beirut in retaliation against Hezbollah
4 dips to 45%4%
On June 7, 2026, Israel struck southern Beirut in retaliation for Hezbollah drone attacks, continuing strikes on Lebanese soil despite ceasefire agreements. This reinforced Lebanon as a country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israel strikes Beirut after Hezbollah missile and drone attack
5 jumps to 40%8%
Following missile and drone attacks by Hezbollah, Israel conducted air strikes on Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut on June 7, 2026. This was the first Israeli attack on the southern suburbs since 2024, escalating the conflict in Lebanon and confirming strikes on Lebanese territory.
Iran launches missile attacks on Israel; Israel retaliates with strikes on Iran and Lebanon
4 surges to 53%19%
On June 7, 2026, Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel, marking a renewed escalation after the ceasefire. Israel responded with strikes on Iranian military targets and Lebanese Hezbollah positions, reaffirming its focus on Iran and Lebanon as strike locations.
Israel strikes Beirut after Hezbollah missile and drone attack
On 7 June 2026, Israel conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut in response to missile and drone attacks by Hezbollah. This confirmed continued Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory in mid-2026.
Iran fires ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting Israeli strikes on Iran and Lebanon
4 rises to 50%2%
Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israeli strikes, leading to Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military targets and Lebanese Hezbollah positions, confirming Iran and Lebanon as strike locations.
Israel strikes Beirut suburbs in retaliation against Hezbollah
On June 6, 2026, Israel conducted airstrikes in the Dahieh district of Beirut, marking the first such attack on the Lebanese capital since a US-brokered ceasefire was renewed. This retaliatory strike followed Hezbollah drone attacks on Israeli forces, maintaining conflict intensity in Lebanon.
Israeli air strikes hit Beirut's southern suburbs in retaliation against Hezbollah
4 surges to 35%15%
On June 6, 2026, Israel conducted air strikes on southern Beirut, Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah positions in retaliation for drone attacks. This marked the first such attack on the Lebanese capital since a US-brokered ceasefire was renewed, escalating tensions in the region.
Israeli airstrikes hit Beirut's southern suburbs in retaliation against Hezbollah
5 jumps to 45%12%
On June 6, 2026, Israel struck southern Beirut in retaliation for Hezbollah drone attacks, marking strikes within Lebanon's capital and demonstrating continued Israeli military operations in Lebanon despite ceasefire efforts. This reinforced Lebanon as a key country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israel renews airstrikes on southern Beirut amid ceasefire tensions
4 rises to 28%3%
On 6 June 2026, Israel launched airstrikes on southern Beirut in retaliation against Hezbollah drone attacks, despite a renewed ceasefire. This continued military activity in Lebanon reinforced the market's expectation of strikes limited to Lebanon and Iran.
Israeli airstrikes kill Lebanese army officers after ceasefire deal
4 jumps to 18%8%
On June 6, 2026, Israeli airstrikes killed multiple Lebanese army officers, violating a recent ceasefire deal and threatening the fragile truce. This event underscored continued Israeli military activity in Lebanon, supporting market expectations of strikes limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Hezbollah rejects US-brokered ceasefire as Israeli strikes continue in Lebanon
4 plunges to 28%19%
On June 5, 2026, Hezbollah formally rejected a US-brokered ceasefire agreement with Israel, while Israeli airstrikes persisted in southern Lebanon. This ongoing conflict kept the market focused on strikes in Lebanon, reinforcing expectations of limited countries targeted by Israel.
Israel strikes military targets in Iran after Iranian missile attack
4 rises to 52%2%
Following Iranian missile attacks on Israel, the Israeli Air Force conducted strikes on military targets in central and western Iran in early June 2026, confirming ongoing Israeli strikes in Iran during 2026.
Israeli drone strikes kill at least four in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
4 dips to 48%2%
Israeli drone strikes targeted vehicles in southern Lebanon, killing at least four people, continuing the pattern of strikes on Lebanese soil in 2026.
Israeli drone strikes hit vehicles near Beirut, testing US-mediated ceasefire
4 surges to 44%27%
On June 3, Israeli drone strikes targeted vehicles near Beirut, Lebanon, wounding civilians and testing the fragile US-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, showing ongoing Israeli military activity in Lebanon.
Israel expands strikes and ground operations in southern Lebanon
5 jumps to 39%8%
Israel intensified airstrikes and expanded ground operations beyond its declared security zone in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah and increasing military pressure in the region, contributing to the count of countries struck by Israel.
Israeli strikes in Lebanon cause 31 deaths amid rising conflict
4 surges to 45%18%
Israeli military operations intensified in Lebanon, resulting in significant casualties and increased rocket fire from Hezbollah into northern Israel. This sustained conflict reinforced market expectations of Israel striking Lebanon and possibly other countries.
Israeli strikes in Lebanon kill 31 amid surge in hostilities
4 jumps to 35%6%
Israeli military operations intensified in Lebanon, resulting in 31 deaths and numerous injuries. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon reported extensive Israeli artillery and drone activity across the border, reinforcing the reality of multiple strikes on Lebanese soil and sustaining market confidence in strikes on at least four countries.
Israeli military kills at least eight in southern Lebanon amid clashes with Hezbollah
5 surges to 38%26%
On May 20, 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed multiple people, highlighting Israel's active military operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah. This confirmed strikes on Lebanese soil, affecting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
Israeli drone strikes kill civilians in southern Lebanon
5 surges to 28%15%
Israeli drone strikes targeted vehicles on a highway south of Beirut, killing at least 12 people including children. These strikes in Lebanon reinforced the market's assessment of Lebanon as a country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israeli drone strikes kill 12 people in Lebanon including children
Israeli drone strikes targeted vehicles on a highway south of Beirut, killing 12 people including two children, confirming continued Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil in 2026.
Israel reportedly establishes secret military outpost in Iraq to support Iran strikes
4 rises to 40%4%
Reports emerged in May 2026 that Israel had built covert military bases in Iraq to support its air campaign against Iran, and conducted airstrikes to repel Iraqi forces near these bases. This confirms Israeli strikes and military presence on Iraqi soil in 2026.
WSJ Exposes Secret Israeli Military Base and Airstrikes in Iraq
4 jumps to 32%14%
The Wall Street Journal revealed that Israel had built a secret base in Iraq and used airstrikes to defend it. This public confirmation of direct Israeli strikes on Iraqi soil solidified the count of struck countries.
Israel conducts drone strike on Lebanese village of Manara, targeting alleged Hamas commander’s home
5 drops to 11%12%
The strike on Manara, claimed by Israel to target a Hamas commander’s residence, marked another confirmed Israeli operation on Lebanese soil, reinforcing the market’s expectation of a low total country count.
Israel continues targeted strikes against Iranian-backed forces in neighboring regions
5 jumps to 36%10%
Despite diplomatic progress toward ceasefire, Israel maintained military operations targeting Iranian proxies in adjacent countries, indicating ongoing multi-front conflict and increasing the number of countries potentially struck by Israel.
U.S.‑mediated ceasefire talks reduce Israel’s incentive for further foreign strikes
8 jumps to 12%10%
Renewed diplomatic negotiations between the U.S., Israel and regional actors lowered expectations of additional cross‑border attacks, causing the market to fall sharply toward the low‑country outcomes.
Israel strikes Beirut suburbs targeting Hezbollah commander
4 dips to 1%2%
Israel conducted airstrikes on Beirut's suburbs, the first since the April ceasefire, targeting a senior Hezbollah commander. This confirmed ongoing Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory despite ceasefire agreements.
Israel strikes Beirut for first time since Lebanon ceasefire
4 jumps to 38%8%
On 6 May 2026, Israel conducted an airstrike targeting a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, marking the first strike on the Lebanese capital since the April ceasefire. This event maintained market focus on Lebanon as a strike location.
Israeli air strikes kill at least 10 in southern Lebanon violating ceasefire
4 dips to 16%3%
On 2 May 2026, Israel launched multiple air strikes across southern Lebanon, killing at least 10 people and violating the ceasefire declared two weeks prior. Continued strikes in Lebanon maintained market focus on Lebanon as a key country struck by Israel.
Israeli drone strike hits Iraqi border outpost
10 rises to 10%1%
Israeli drones hit an Iraqi border outpost in the Kurdish region, marking the first Israeli strike on Iraqi soil and raising the total country count.
Israeli airstrikes kill 10 in southern Lebanon amid Hezbollah rocket fire
Israel conducted several airstrikes in southern Lebanon killing at least 10 people, while Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at northern Israel. This ongoing conflict in Lebanon confirms Israel's strikes are focused on Lebanon and Gaza, with no evidence of strikes on other countries.
Israel conducts limited drone strikes on Iranian‑backed militia bases in Iraq
8 plunges to 2%22%
For the first time Israel hit targets inside Iraq, expanding the list of countries under attack and nudging the market back up toward the 8‑country outcome.
Israel warns Lebanese civilians to flee ahead of strikes in southern Lebanon
Israel's military warned residents in seven southern Lebanese towns to evacuate ahead of strikes targeting Hezbollah militants. This continued Israeli military activity in Lebanon reinforced the expectation of strikes limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Israel conducts limited strikes on Iranian air defense near Isfahan
4 jumps to 33%7%
Israel launched calibrated strikes against Iranian air defense radar systems near Isfahan, demonstrating military capabilities without escalating to full-scale war. This action reinforced the ongoing conflict dynamics and the likelihood of Israeli strikes on Iranian soil.
Israel conducts limited strike on Iranian air defense near Isfahan
Israel launched a calibrated strike against an S-300 radar system near Isfahan on April 19, 2026, demonstrating capability without escalating to full-scale war. This confirmed Israel's operational reach into Iranian territory, reinforcing the market's view of strikes in multiple countries.
10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah takes effect in Lebanon
A ceasefire was agreed between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, temporarily halting hostilities. Despite this, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire continued sporadically, indicating ongoing conflict primarily limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Israel pauses cross‑border strikes after EU energy‑security summit
7 plunges to 24%15%
The EU’s focus on regional energy security and calls for de‑escalation led Israel to temporarily halt operations beyond Lebanon, pulling the market down toward lower outcomes.
Israel strikes Iranian missile facilities; Iran hits Saudi refinery
5 plunges to 30%17%
Israel reported a new wave of strikes on Iranian missile and drone production sites, and Iranian retaliation hit a Saudi oil refinery. The market edged lower as the conflict appeared to be contained to Iran and Saudi Arabia rather than expanding further.
Israel launches airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon ahead of disarmament talks
5 dips to 23%4%
Israel intensified its campaign with strikes on Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon just before a scheduled Lebanese army briefing on disarmament, adding further evidence of continued operations in Lebanon and keeping the market weighted toward lower outcomes.
Israel launches massive airstrikes on Lebanon despite US-Iran ceasefire
4 jumps to 36%9%
On April 8, 2026, Israel launched its most powerful airstrikes on Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and killing hundreds, despite a ceasefire between the US and Iran. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil in 2026.
Israel launches powerful airstrikes across Lebanon despite ceasefire
On 8 April 2026, Israel conducted its most powerful airstrikes on Lebanon, killing hundreds and targeting Hezbollah militants, disrupting the ceasefire and intensifying the conflict in Lebanon.
Israel launches massive wave of strikes across Lebanon
Israel carried out its largest wave of air‑strikes on Lebanon since the war began, crushing Hezbollah positions across the country. Though Lebanon had already been counted, the intensity pushed market sentiment toward higher country counts as Israel demonstrated capability to strike multiple locations in a single country.
Israel launches powerful airstrikes on Lebanon amid ceasefire
4 drops to 17%8%
Despite a ceasefire announcement, Israel launched its most powerful airstrikes on Lebanon on April 8, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and killing hundreds, indicating continued Israeli military action focused on Lebanon alongside Iran.
Israel launches powerful air strikes across Lebanon despite Iran ceasefire
4 drops to 20%14%
On 8 April 2026, Israel launched its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, killing at least 357 people shortly after a ceasefire announcement in the Iran war. This marked a significant strike on Lebanese soil, impacting market expectations about the number of countries struck.
Israel launches massive airstrikes across Lebanon after US-Iran ceasefire announcement
4 jumps to 45%5%
On April 8, 2026, Israel launched its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, killing at least 357 people despite a ceasefire announcement. This intensified strikes on Lebanese soil, reinforcing Lebanon as a key target country in 2026.
Israel launches massive wave of air strikes across Lebanon despite ceasefire
4 jumps to 53%9%
On April 8, 2026, Israel launched an unprecedented wave of 100 air strikes in 10 minutes across Lebanon, described as its most powerful attacks on Lebanon since the 2024 war. This occurred shortly after a ceasefire announcement, escalating the conflict and confirming Israel's continued strikes on Lebanese territory.
Israel launches massive airstrikes across Lebanon despite ceasefire
5 jumps to 29%5%
On April 8, 2026, Israel conducted its most powerful airstrikes on Lebanon, killing hundreds and disrupting a fragile ceasefire. This intensified Israeli military activity in Lebanon, reinforcing the market's expectation of strikes in Lebanon as a separate country.
Israel launches its most powerful airstrikes on Lebanon despite ceasefire
5 jumps to 44%5%
Following a ceasefire announcement, Israel conducted large-scale airstrikes across Lebanon, killing hundreds and targeting Hezbollah militants. This confirmed continued Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil, reinforcing the market's expectation of strikes on Lebanon as a second foreign country.
Israel launches 100 air strikes across Lebanon including Beirut
4 plunges to 2%42%
On April 8, 2026, Israel conducted a massive wave of air strikes across Lebanon, including central Beirut, killing hundreds and marking the most powerful attacks on Lebanese soil during the conflict. This confirmed Lebanon as a second country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israel conducts massive airstrikes on Lebanon despite ceasefire
4 jumps to 29%6%
On April 8, 2026, shortly after a ceasefire announcement in the Iran war, Israel launched its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, killing at least 357 people and targeting Hezbollah militants. This demonstrated Israel's continued military focus on Lebanon alongside Iran.
Israel launches massive wave of air strikes across Lebanon killing hundreds
On April 8, 2026, Israel launched over 100 air strikes in 10 minutes across Lebanon, killing at least 357 people and targeting Hezbollah militants. This unprecedented escalation confirmed Israel's active strikes on Lebanese soil, strongly influencing market pricing.
Israel launches powerful airstrikes on Lebanon despite ceasefire
On April 8, Israel conducted its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, killing at least 357 people and targeting Hezbollah militants. This escalation in Lebanon reinforced the market's expectation of strikes in Lebanon, maintaining the count of countries struck by Israel.
Israel strikes Iranian airbases in Tehran
6 rises to 7%2%
Israel carried out a major overnight strike on Iranian air facilities in Tehran, targeting both the Iranian Air Force and IRGC air units. This confirmed continued Israeli strikes on Iranian territory, reinforcing the market's assessment of strikes on Iran.
Israel conducts major overnight air strikes on Iranian airbases in Tehran
5 jumps to 39%8%
On 6 April 2026, Israel carried out a significant air strike targeting Iranian Air Force and IRGC air units in Tehran, disrupting missile launch capabilities. This escalation reinforced the market's view of Israel striking Iranian territory.
Israel conducts major airstrike on Iranian airbases in Tehran
Israel carried out a significant overnight strike targeting Iranian Air Force and IRGC air units in Tehran, disrupting missile launch capabilities. This demonstrated Israel's direct military action on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's expectation of strikes in multiple countries.
Hezbollah fires drone at northern Israel amid ongoing conflict
4 jumps to 40%5%
Hezbollah launched a drone attack on northern Israel, prompting Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. This continued the pattern of Israeli strikes on Lebanon, reinforcing the market's expectation of strikes in at least two countries outside Israel's borders.
Israel conducts extensive airstrikes deep in Iran targeting military and financial infrastructure
4 jumps to 53%7%
On April 3, 2026, Israel carried out around 20 strike sorties across western and central Iran, targeting over 50 sites related to ballistic missile infrastructure, command centers, and financial hubs linked to Iran's military. This large-scale operation confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's expectation of Israel striking multiple countries, including Iran.
Israeli airstrikes hit multiple targets deep inside Iran including missile infrastructure
4 rises to 53%3%
On April 3, 2026, Israeli air operations continued across Iran with strikes on over 50 targets related to ballistic missile infrastructure, command centers, and financial hubs. This confirmed Israel's active strikes on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's expectation of strikes in Iran and Lebanon only.
Israel intercepts missiles fired from Iran amid regional tensions
4 jumps to 34%14%
Israel's military confirmed interception of missiles launched from Iran, while Iranian drones struck Kuwaiti oil facilities, highlighting the expanding regional conflict. This event underscored the possibility of Israel striking multiple countries, including Iran's proxies.
Israel strikes Beirut after Hezbollah missile and drone attack
4 jumps to 42%5%
Following missile and drone attacks by Hezbollah on Israeli territory, Israel launched air strikes on Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut on April 2, 2026. This intensified the conflict in Lebanon and confirmed Israel's active military operations on Lebanese soil, reinforcing market expectations of strikes in Lebanon.
Israel intercepts Iranian missile attacks amid Hezbollah rocket and drone strikes
On April 2, 2026, Israeli air defenses intercepted several waves of missiles launched from Iran, while Hezbollah simultaneously launched rockets and a drone strike targeting northern Israeli towns. This heightened military activity confirmed ongoing strikes involving Israel, Iran, and Lebanon but did not indicate new countries being struck by Israel.
Israel intercepts Iranian missile attacks and responds with strikes in Lebanon
On April 2, 2026, Israel's air defenses intercepted multiple Iranian missiles, while Israeli forces launched strikes targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon, reinforcing the ongoing multi-front conflict and supporting market expectations of strikes in Lebanon and Iran.
Iranian missile strikes hit southern Israeli cities near nuclear site
Iranian missiles struck the southern Israeli cities of Dimona and Arad near Israel's main nuclear research center, causing injuries and damage. This was the first time Iranian missiles penetrated Israel's air defenses in that area, escalating tensions and Israeli military responses in the region.
Israeli air defenses respond to Iranian missile attacks; no confirmed Israeli strikes on new countries
4 jumps to 37%6%
On March 31, 2026, Israeli air defense systems intercepted missiles launched from Iran targeting Israeli territory, with sirens activated over Jerusalem. No credible reports indicated Israeli strikes on countries other than Iran and Lebanon, reinforcing market confidence that strikes would be limited to these countries.
Israeli air defenses intercept missiles launched from Iran targeting Jerusalem
On March 31, 2026, multiple explosions were reported over Jerusalem after Israeli air defense systems responded to missile attacks launched from Iran. This event underscored the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, with missile strikes impacting Israeli territory but no confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian soil during this period.
Yemen's Houthis Resume Ballistic Missile Attacks Against Israel
The Houthis officially joined the 2026 Iran war by launching ballistic missiles at Israel, raising the prospect of direct Israeli retaliatory strikes on Yemen.
Israel strikes Houthi targets in Yemen in response to missile attacks
5 jumps to 15%5%
Israel launched airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, including the capital Sanaa and Hodeidah port, in retaliation for missile and drone attacks on Israel, expanding the conflict to Yemen's territory.
Yemen's Houthis Resume Attacks Against Israel, Joining the Regional Conflict
5 rises to 32%3%
The Houthis in Yemen launched ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting expectations of retaliatory Israeli airstrikes on Yemeni soil, which would increase the total count of struck countries.
Air Strikes Target PMF Headquarters at Kirkuk Airport in Iraq
5 drops to 23%8%
Airstrikes blamed on the US and Israel hit the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) headquarters in Kirkuk, Iraq, killing three fighters and two police officers. This further solidified Iraq as a confirmed target country.
Israeli airstrike kills three journalists in Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
4 dips to 33%3%
On March 28, 2026, Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon resulted in the deaths of three journalists, confirming Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil. This adds Lebanon as a third country struck by Israel in 2026.
Hezbollah fires rockets into Israel, prompting retaliatory Israeli strikes on Jordanian border outposts
7 jumps to 39%11%
Hezbollah’s rocket fire led Israel to strike a Jordanian border outpost, marking a new country being hit and causing a sharp price increase toward the 7‑country outcome.
Missiles strike Israeli cities Arad and Dimona after defense failure
4 surges to 49%28%
On March 22, missiles struck Israeli cities Arad and Dimona after Israeli air defenses failed to intercept them. Iranian media claimed these strikes were in response to Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, highlighting the ongoing tit-for-tat strikes and regional escalation.
Iranian missile strikes hit Israeli cities Arad and Dimona
4 jumps to 49%9%
On March 22, Iranian missiles struck Israeli cities Arad and Dimona, causing damage and casualties. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to continue striking enemies on all fronts, but no credible reports indicated Israeli strikes on new foreign countries' soil, keeping market expectations stable.
Israel hits Jordanian border outpost after Hezbollah rocket fire
9 rises to 9%1%
Israel launched an air‑strike on a Jordanian border outpost after Hezbollah rockets crossed the border, marking the first Israeli strike inside Jordan.
Israel Strikes Syrian Government Infrastructure in Southern Syria
4 surges to 44%23%
The Israeli military conducted airstrikes on Syrian army camps and command centers in southern Syria, citing retaliation for attacks on Druze civilians. This reinforced Syria's status as a struck country.
Israel conducts airstrikes on Syrian government targets after Druze attacks
4 rises to 6%2%
In response to attacks on Druze civilians in southern Syria, Israel launched airstrikes on Syrian military infrastructure, marking an expansion of Israeli strikes into Syrian territory amid the broader regional conflict.
Israel strikes Syrian government military sites in response to attacks on Druze civilians
4 jumps to 27%9%
Israel conducted airstrikes on Syrian government infrastructure in southern Syria, targeting command centers and weapons storage in retaliation for attacks on Druze civilians. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Syrian soil in 2026.
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iraqi militia bases amid Iran war
5 jumps to 20%5%
Israel and the US conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, killing several fighters and escalating the conflict into Iraqi territory, marking Iraq as another country struck by Israel in 2026.
Hezbollah launches missile and drone attacks on Israel in retaliation for Iranian leader's death
Hezbollah claimed missile and drone attacks targeting Israeli military facilities near Haifa on March 16, 2026, in response to the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This marked Hezbollah's first such attack since the 2024 war and led to Israeli retaliatory strikes in Lebanon, confirming active conflict on Lebanese soil.
Israeli airstrikes target Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon
4 dips to 34%2%
On 15 March 2026, Israeli warplanes conducted a series of strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah military infrastructure, including towns such as Zibdin, Hanin, Kfar, Aita al-Shaab, and Yater. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil, contributing to the count of countries struck.
Israeli airstrikes target Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon amid regional conflict
On March 15, 2026, Israeli warplanes conducted a series of airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah-controlled towns including Zibdin, Hanin, Kfar, Aita al-Shaab, and Yater. This followed Hezbollah missile and drone attacks on Israel, marking a significant escalation in the Israel-Lebanon front and confirming Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil.
Israeli airstrikes reported in southern Lebanon amid Iran-US conflict
5 jumps to 26%8%
On March 15, 2026, Israeli warplanes conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, including towns such as Zibdin and Nabatieh district. This marked a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict involving Israel, Iran, and their proxies, impacting market expectations for strikes in Lebanon.
Israel conducts airstrikes in southern Lebanon amid regional conflict escalation
4 jumps to 39%8%
On March 15, 2026, Israeli warplanes carried out a series of strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah military structures, following coordinated missile and drone strikes by Iran and its allies. This marked a significant expansion of Israeli strikes beyond Iran, impacting Lebanon and contributing to market confidence in multiple-country strikes.
Israeli airstrikes target multiple towns in southern Lebanon amid Iran-US conflict
On March 15, 2026, Israeli warplanes conducted a series of strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, escalating the conflict following US-Israel strikes on Iran. This increased the likelihood of Israel striking Lebanon, impacting market expectations.
Israel says it has executed over 7,600 strikes on Iran in 13 days
4 surges to 61%16%
Israel announced it had carried out more than 7,600 strike sorties against Iran, intensifying the conflict and prompting speculation of further strikes on Iran’s regional allies, pushing the market back toward the highest‑probability outcome.
Israel executes over 7,600 strikes on Iran in 13 days
4 rises to 35%2%
By mid-March, Israel had conducted more than 7,600 strikes on Iranian targets, including nuclear and military sites, confirming the focus of Israeli strikes on Iranian soil. This high operational tempo supported market pricing favoring a lower number of countries struck, mainly Iran and Lebanon.
IDF Conducts Over 7,600 Strikes on Iran in First Two Weeks of War
5 rises to 29%3%
The sheer volume of strikes concentrated heavily on Iran and Lebanon, reducing the likelihood of Israel expanding its air campaign to a high number of other countries.
Israeli strike kills 12 medical workers in southern Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike targeted a health center run by Hezbollah's health arm in southern Lebanon, killing 12 medical workers. This marked one of the deadliest strikes in Lebanon since the war began, highlighting Israel's targeting of Hezbollah's civilian and military infrastructure. This event reinforced expectations of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Israel conducts over 7,600 strikes on Iran in 13 days
4 jumps to 41%7%
By March 13, Israel had executed more than 7,600 strikes on Iran, targeting nuclear and military sites. This intense campaign underscored Israel's focus on Iran but also suggested the possibility of strikes extending to other countries involved in the conflict, affecting market probabilities.
Iranian missile strikes cause damage in Bahrain and other Gulf states
4 dips to 30%4%
Iran launched missile and drone strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in retaliation, but there is no credible evidence Israel struck these countries. This regional escalation increased market uncertainty but did not shift expectations that Israel would strike multiple countries beyond Iran.
Hezbollah and Iran launch coordinated missile and drone attacks on Israel
4 jumps to 40%11%
On March 10-11, Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, launched a massive coordinated missile and drone attack on Israel from Lebanon. Israel retaliated with strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs but did not conduct qualifying strikes on Lebanese soil, maintaining the market's focus on Iran as the only country struck by Israel.
Iranian drone strike damages building in Manama, Bahrain
4 jumps to 34%5%
On March 10, an Iranian drone strike caused damage in Manama, Bahrain, marking a strike on a country other than Iran or Israel. This event indicated the regional spread of the conflict and influenced market pricing toward Israel striking multiple countries, as Israel might respond to Iranian actions in Gulf states.
Israeli drone strike hits Manama, Bahrain, targeting military site
5 rises to 17%2%
On March 10, 2026, Israel conducted a drone strike in Manama, Bahrain, targeting alleged military infrastructure. This marked a strike on a country beyond Iran and Lebanon, influencing market expectations of the number of countries struck.
Iran‑backed Hezbollah fires 200 missiles and drones at Israel
4 jumps to 52%13%
Iran and Hezbollah launched a coordinated barrage of roughly 200 missiles and drones into Israel from Lebanese territory, raising expectations that Israel would retaliate against Lebanon and possibly other neighbouring states, nudging the market upward.
Iranian missile strikes hit Israeli cities Arad and Dimona
On March 22, Iranian missiles struck Israeli cities Arad and Dimona, indicating ongoing hostilities but no Israeli strikes on new countries. Israeli response remained focused on Iran, supporting the market's low count of countries struck by Israel.
Israeli drone strike hits Bahrain's Seef district causing damage
4 jumps to 36%9%
On March 10, 2026, a drone strike attributed to Israel caused damage in the Seef district of Manama, Bahrain. This represents a confirmed Israeli strike on Bahraini soil, adding a second country to the tally of countries struck by Israel in 2026.
IDF confirms airstrikes on Iranian drone command headquarters
4 jumps to 34%14%
Israeli Defense Forces confirmed airstrikes targeting an IRGC Drone Command Headquarters in Iran, further degrading Iran's drone capabilities and reinforcing Israel's focus on Iranian military infrastructure during the conflict.
Israel launches 100 air strikes in 10 minutes across Lebanon
5 jumps to 38%5%
On April 8, 2026, Israel conducted an unprecedented wave of 100 air strikes across Lebanon within 10 minutes, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. This escalation in Lebanon expanded the number of countries struck by Israel and significantly impacted market pricing toward higher strike counts.
Israel launches massive air strikes across Lebanon despite ceasefire
4 jumps to 34%14%
On April 8, 2026, Israel conducted its most powerful air strikes on Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and killing hundreds, despite a fragile ceasefire. This expanded Israel's strike footprint to Lebanon, increasing the count of countries struck.
Israel strikes Syrian command centre after Druze attacks
8 rises to 8%1%
The Israeli Air Force bombed a command centre in southern Syria, its first acknowledged aerial strike on Syrian territory during the 2026 Iran‑War, adding a new country to the count.
IRGC claims missile and drone strikes on Israeli Defense Ministry and Ben Gurion Airport
4 jumps to 24%6%
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced missile and drone attacks targeting Israeli government and civilian infrastructure, escalating tensions and prompting Israeli defensive responses. This event underscored the ongoing conflict and influenced market perceptions of Israeli retaliatory strikes.
IRGC claims missile and drone strikes on Israeli Defense Ministry and Ben Gurion Airport
6 drops to 4%5%
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced missile and drone attacks targeting Israeli Defense Ministry headquarters and Ben Gurion Airport, escalating tensions and prompting Israeli defensive responses. This event underscored the ongoing conflict and influenced market perceptions of Israeli retaliatory strikes in multiple countries.
Israel conducts drone strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah
5 surges to 38%28%
Israel launched drone strikes on villages in southern Lebanon, including areas near Tyre and Al-Housh, killing civilians and militants. These strikes were part of Israel's expanded campaign against Hezbollah during the 2026 Lebanon war, increasing the count of countries struck to include Lebanon.
Israeli airstrikes hit Iranian missile storage sites in Tehran
4 rises to 37%4%
Israeli air force conducted strikes targeting missile storage sites in Tehran, Iran, demonstrating Israel's continued focus on Iranian territory and military infrastructure. No reports indicated Israeli strikes on other countries' soil during this period.
IRGC claims missile and drone strikes on Israeli Defense Ministry and Ben Gurion Airport
5 jumps to 26%11%
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced missile and drone attacks on Israeli territory, heightening regional tensions and suggesting potential Israeli retaliatory strikes on multiple countries.
Israel launches a series of strikes on Syrian air bases from Lebanon
6 surges to 28%15%
Israel used drones and missiles launched from Lebanese territory to hit Syrian military installations, marking the first confirmed strike on a third country and pushing the market toward the highest country‑count outcomes.
Israel conducts over 1,600 strikes on Iran in first four days of war
4 jumps to 36%9%
The Israel Defense Forces reported conducting 1,600 strike sorties against Iranian targets, including nuclear and military sites, confirming sustained Israeli airstrikes on Iranian soil. This reinforced market expectations of Israeli strikes on Iran as a key foreign country.
Israel launches drone and missile strikes on southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah
5 jumps to 34%8%
In early March, Israel expanded its strikes to southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and killing militants. These strikes on Lebanese soil increased the count of countries Israel struck, impacting market prices toward higher outcomes.
Israeli airstrikes target multiple locations in southern Lebanon
Israeli drone strikes hit towns in southern Lebanon including Aita al-Shaab and areas near Tyre, killing civilians and militants. These strikes confirm Lebanon as a second country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israeli Air Force conducts extensive airstrikes on Iran
4 jumps to 33%6%
The Israeli Air Force publicly released footage of F-16I jets flying to Iran and reported hundreds of sorties with over 5,000 bombs dropped during the conflict. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, significantly impacting market confidence in at least one foreign country being struck.
Israel conducts 1,600 strikes on Iran in first four days of war
4 jumps to 27%9%
By March 4, Israel had carried out 1,600 strike sorties against Iran, targeting military and nuclear sites, while simultaneously defending against Iranian missile and drone attacks. This sustained campaign reinforced the market's view of Israel striking Iranian territory extensively.
Israel conducts over 1,600 strikes on Iran in four days
4 jumps to 34%7%
By March 4, Israel had conducted more than 1,600 strike sorties against Iran, focusing on missile and drone infrastructure. This demonstrated Israel's intense focus on Iranian territory and reinforced market confidence that Israel's strikes were concentrated in Iran rather than multiple countries.
Israeli Forces Strike Iraqi Troops Near Secret Desert Outpost
4 jumps to 40%7%
To protect a clandestine military outpost in the western Iraqi desert, Israeli forces launched airstrikes against approaching Iraqi military regiments. This confirmed Iraq as another country struck by Israel.
Israel conducts over 1,600 strikes on Iran in four days
By March 4, Israel had conducted more than 1,600 strike sorties against Iran, focusing on missile and drone infrastructure. This confirmed Israel's operational focus on Iran and reinforced market expectations that strikes would be concentrated in one country.
Israeli airstrikes hit southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon amid Iran conflict
4 jumps to 40%13%
Israeli airstrikes targeted southern Beirut suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, marking Lebanon as a strike location. This escalation followed the outbreak of the Iran war and indicated Lebanon as a second country struck by Israel in 2026.
Hezbollah launches rocket attacks on northern Israel, sparking Lebanon war
5 jumps to 29%12%
Following the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Hezbollah launched rocket attacks on northern Israel, prompting Israel to invade parts of Lebanon and conduct airstrikes. This expanded Israel's military actions to Lebanon, increasing the count of countries struck and influencing market prices.
Israel conducts drone strike on car in Yanouh, Lebanon, killing three including a child
5 drops to 23%8%
A drone strike in the Lebanese village of Yanouh killed three civilians, confirming another Israeli operation on Lebanese territory and reinforcing the market’s view that the count of struck countries remains low.
Israel retaliates with airstrikes on Lebanon after Hezbollah rocket attacks
Following Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israel, Israeli forces conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, marking Israel's second country strike in 2026. This expanded the conflict geographically beyond Iran.
Israel escalates strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon
4 jumps to 37%13%
Following Iranian missile strikes on Israel, the Israel Defense Forces conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, marking an expansion of Israeli strikes beyond Iran. This raised market expectations for Israel striking multiple countries, including Lebanon.
Israel launches airstrikes across Lebanon targeting Hezbollah
4 surges to 36%18%
Following rocket and drone attacks from Lebanon, Israel launched airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Beirut and other areas on March 2, 2026. This marked the beginning of the 2026 Lebanon war and expanded Israel's military operations beyond Iran to Lebanese territory.
Hezbollah launches rocket attacks on northern Israel, sparking Lebanon war
4 jumps to 36%9%
Two days after the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Hezbollah entered the conflict by firing rockets into northern Israel, prompting Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon. This confirmed Lebanon as a second country where Israel conducted strikes in 2026.
Hezbollah Fires Rockets Into Israel, Sparking Full-Scale War in Lebanon
Hezbollah entered the conflict in support of Iran, prompting widespread Israeli retaliatory airstrikes and a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, confirming Lebanon as the second major country struck.
Israel strikes Hezbollah targets in Beirut after missile and drone attacks
4 jumps to 40%13%
Following missile and drone attacks by Hezbollah on Israel, Israeli forces conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut on March 2, 2026. This confirmed Lebanon as a country struck by Israel in 2026, reinforcing market expectations of strikes in Lebanon and Iran only.
Israel Launches Widespread Air Strikes and Ground Invasion in Lebanon
4 jumps to 36%6%
Following rocket attacks from Hezbollah, Israel initiated a major military campaign in Lebanon, confirming Lebanon as another target country on the list.
Iran launches missiles and drones at five Gulf states in retaliation for Israeli‑US attacks
4 surges to 61%19%
Iran fired missiles and drones at several Gulf states – Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain – in retaliation for the Israeli‑US strikes. The market rallied sharply as the possibility of Israeli strikes on those countries’ territories grew.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on Israel and Gulf states
4 jumps to 33%6%
Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel and several Gulf countries including Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. These retaliatory strikes confirmed Israel's engagement with Iran and the regional scope of the conflict but did not indicate Israeli strikes on these countries.
Iran launches missile attacks on Israel and Gulf countries including Kuwait and Saudi Arabia
4 drops to 26%7%
Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel and several Gulf countries including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Israel responded with strikes on Iranian targets but no confirmed strikes on these Gulf countries' soil by Israel have been reported, keeping the count of countries struck by Israel at four.
Israel and U.S. begin joint air strikes on Iran
7 rises to 7%2%
Israel and the United States launched coordinated air‑strike missions against targets inside Iran, marking the first Israeli strike on Iranian soil in 2026. The operation was publicly presented as “Operation Roaring Lion” by Israel and counted as a strike on a new foreign country.
US and Israel conduct joint military strikes on Iran
4 rises to 50%2%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iranian nuclear and military sites, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This event confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, directly impacting the market's assessment of the number of countries Israel would strike.
Israel and US launch joint airstrikes on multiple targets across Iran
5 drops to 37%10%
On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States initiated coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This large-scale operation, codenamed Operation Roaring Lion by Israel, significantly increased the likelihood of Israel striking Iran, impacting market prices for outcomes predicting higher strike counts.
Israel and US launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran
4 dips to 44%4%
On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States initiated Operation Roaring Lion and Operation Epic Fury, respectively, conducting nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities. This marked the start of Israel's extensive air campaign against Iran, setting the stage for the conflict and influencing market expectations of strikes on Iranian soil.
Israel launches Operation Roaring Lion with extensive strikes inside Iran
4 jumps to 27%9%
On February 28, 2026, Israel initiated Operation Roaring Lion, conducting over 900 precision strikes targeting Iranian military assets and command facilities. This marked the start of a major escalation and significantly increased expectations that Israel would strike multiple countries' territories.
Israel launches Operation Roaring Lion with precision strikes inside Iran
6 plunges to 8%39%
On February 28, 2026, Israel initiated Operation Roaring Lion, conducting over 900 precision strikes targeting Iranian command-and-control bunkers, missile launchers, and air defense systems. This marked the start of a major escalation and expanded the geographic scope of Israeli strikes to include Iranian territory, significantly impacting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
Israel and US launch extensive airstrikes on Iranian military targets
4 jumps to 46%10%
On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This marked the start of the 2026 Iran war and significantly increased the likelihood of Israel striking Iran, impacting the market's outlook on the number of countries struck.
United States and Israel Launch Joint Military Strikes Across Iran
The US and Israel initiated coordinated airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear-linked facilities, and leadership, marking the official start of the 2026 Iran war.
US and Israel launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran, initiating 2026 Iran war
4 rises to 50%2%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched joint missile and airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian soil and set the stage for the conflict, significantly impacting market expectations for the number of countries Israel would strike.
US and Israel Launch Massive Joint Airstrikes on Iran
4 dips to 33%3%
The United States and Israel initiated Operation Epic Fury / Roaring Lion, launching hundreds of strikes across Iran. This marked the official entry of Iran as a directly struck country in 2026, causing major shifts in the market.
Israel launches extensive airstrikes on Iran initiating Operation Epic Fury
4 plunges to 27%21%
On February 28, 2026, Israel, alongside the US, began a large-scale military operation against Iran involving thousands of strike sorties targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities. This marked the start of Israel's active strikes on foreign soil in 2026, primarily focused on Iran.
Israel and US launch coordinated missile strikes on Iran
5 plunges to 15%32%
On 28 February 2026, Israel and the United States launched joint missile attacks on multiple locations in Iran, marking the start of Operation Roaring Lion and Operation Epic Fury. This significant military action against Iranian territory influenced market expectations about the number of countries Israel would strike.
Israel and US launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran
6 plunges to 4%43%
On February 28, 2026, Israel and the US began a joint military operation striking Iranian nuclear and military facilities, marking the start of intense Israeli airstrikes on Iran. This large-scale operation set the stage for the conflict and influenced market expectations that Israel's strikes would focus on Iran.
Israel and U.S. launch massive coordinated strikes on Iranian military targets
6 plunges to 4%43%
On February 28, 2026, Israel initiated Operation Roaring Lion alongside U.S. Operation Epic Fury, conducting over 900 precision strikes targeting Iranian command centers, missile launchers, and air defenses. This marked the outbreak of all-out war and set the stage for subsequent regional strikes, increasing expectations for multiple countries being struck.
Israel and US launch joint airstrikes on Iran, initiating 2026 Iran war
4 rises to 50%2%
On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States began coordinated airstrikes across Iran targeting military and nuclear facilities, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This major escalation set the stage for Israel's military actions in the region and influenced market expectations of strikes on Iran.
US and Israel begin joint air strikes on Iran, sparking regional war
4 plunges to 4%44%
The United States and Israel launched a joint air campaign against Iran, marking the start of the 2026 Iran‑Israel war. The market sharply fell as traders expected the conflict to stay largely confined to Iran and Israel, reducing the likelihood of strikes on third‑party states.
US and Israel launch joint military strikes on Iran
4 plunges to 28%20%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel began coordinated military strikes on Iran, initiating the 2026 Iran war. This large-scale operation involved missiles, drones, and fighter jets targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities, setting the stage for extensive Israeli airstrikes in the region and influencing market expectations of Israeli strikes on multiple countries.
US and Israel launch coordinated military strikes on Iran
4 plunges to 28%20%
On February 27-28, 2026, the US and Israel initiated Operation Epic Fury, conducting extensive missile and drone strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities. This marked the start of a large-scale Israeli air campaign focused on Iranian territory, setting the stage for the high volume of strikes reported in the following weeks.
U.S. President Trump expected to announce Board of Peace for Gaza
5 dips to 13%2%
Anticipation of a diplomatic breakthrough in Gaza reduced expectations of further cross‑border strikes, pulling the market down as traders saw less incentive for Israel to open new fronts.
Israel warns of imminent strikes on two villages in eastern Bekaa Valley
Israel’s Arabic‑language spokesman posted warnings that the military would strike two villages in the Bekaa Valley, signaling a likely upcoming operation on Lebanese soil and prompting market participants to lower expectations for higher country counts.
Israel Strikes Four Syria-Lebanon Border Crossings
4 rises to 37%4%
Israel launched airstrikes targeting four border crossings on the Syria-Lebanon border, alleging they were used by Hezbollah to smuggle weapons. This early action confirmed strikes on both Lebanese and Syrian territory.
Israel conducts drone strike on a Hamas ally in southern Lebanon
5 jumps to 15%8%
An Israeli drone killed three people, including a child, in the village of Yanouh, targeting a local official linked to Hamas. The incident suggested Israel might expand strikes to other neighboring states, lifting the market again.
Israel announces temporary ceasefire on Lebanon front after U.N. pressure
5 plunges to 7%21%
Following a U.N. resolution urging restraint, Israel halted major air operations in Lebanon for a week, causing the market to drop as the likelihood of new foreign strike targets fell.
Israel launches strikes in Gaza testing ceasefire, killing 24
Israel launched airstrikes against Hamas militants in Gaza, testing the ceasefire and killing at least 24 people. This continued military activity influenced market views on Israel's strike patterns and potential targets in 2026.
Israel strikes a Hezbollah‑run health centre in Burj Qalaouiyah, Lebanon
5 surges to 28%22%
A drone strike hit a Hezbollah‑affiliated medical facility, killing 12 health workers. Targeting civilian‑linked Hezbollah infrastructure heightened concerns of broader regional strikes, nudging prices upward again.
Experts warn of potential Israeli strikes on Iran in 2026
8 plunges to 2%48%
European diplomats and analysts indicated Israel might strike Iran again in 2026 if uranium enrichment activities resume, shaping market expectations about the number of countries Israel could target.
Israel intensifies air attacks on Lebanon, straining fragile truce
6 dips to 3%2%
Israel launched a new wave of air attacks on Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, raising fears of expanded military campaign. This escalation increased the likelihood of strikes on Lebanese soil in 2026.
Israel launches new wave of air attacks on Lebanon, straining fragile truce
10 drops to 0%5%
Israel carried out multiple waves of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah special operations training compounds, maintaining near-daily pressure on the ceasefire.
Israel approves $35 billion defense budget for 2026 despite ceasefire
7 plunges to 2%42%
Israel's cabinet approved a substantial defense budget increase for 2026, signaling continued military preparedness and potential for strikes beyond current ceasefire agreements. This budget approval affected market sentiment about the likelihood of multiple country strikes.
Israel launches airstrikes in Gaza amid ceasefire violations
4 drops to 10%8%
Israel launched airstrikes against Hamas militants in Gaza in response to ceasefire violations, killing multiple Palestinians. These strikes reinforced the ongoing conflict in Gaza, affecting market expectations for strikes in Palestinian territories.
Israel strikes southern Lebanon after first direct talks in decades
6 dips to 3%4%
Less than a day after holding direct civilian-envoy talks, Israel launched new airstrikes in southern Lebanon, citing ceasefire violations by Hezbollah.
Israeli weapons makers showcase new tech after two years of war
9 plunges to 4%42%
Israel revealed new military technologies including drones and laser defense systems, focusing on defense and surveillance rather than offensive strikes on multiple countries. This reinforced market expectations of limited Israeli strikes abroad in 2026.
Israel plans to deploy Iron Beam laser defense system by year-end
8 plunges to 2%48%
Israel announced deployment of the Iron Beam laser system to intercept missiles and drones, emphasizing defensive capabilities amid ongoing conflict but not indicating new offensive strikes on foreign soil. This contributed to market consensus of fewer Israeli strikes abroad.
U.S.‑brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon reduce immediate strike risk
5 dips to 6%4%
Direct diplomatic talks, mediated by the United States, were held in Beirut, leading both sides to pause large‑scale air operations. The market retreated sharply as traders expected fewer new foreign strike targets.
Israel conducts airstrike in southern Lebanon killing civilians
5 dips to 7%2%
An Israeli strike in the village of Habboush near Nabatiyeh killed six civilians, reinforcing the perception that Israel is expanding its campaign into Lebanon and further confirming Lebanon as a target country.
Israel kills 13 in Syria airstrikes following failed ground incursion
9 plunges to 5%41%
Israeli forces launched deadly airstrikes on the Syrian town of Beit Jinn after local residents resisted a ground military incursion, marking a significant escalation in Syria.
IDF announces reservist duty changes amid regional tensions
6 plunges to 3%44%
The IDF announced reservists would serve less but train more in 2026, reflecting a recalibration of military readiness amid ongoing tensions with neighbors including Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Qatar. This influenced market expectations about Israel's military engagement scope.
Israel conducts airstrikes in southern Lebanon after first direct talks in decades
5 plunges to 7%40%
Israel launched airstrikes in southern Lebanon shortly after historic direct talks with Lebanon, signaling continued military pressure despite diplomatic efforts. This event affected market views on the number of countries Israel might strike, reinforcing Lebanon as a likely target.
Israel kills top Hezbollah official in Beirut airstrike
6 dips to 5%2%
Israel conducted an airstrike in southern Beirut targeting a senior Hezbollah official, killing him despite a ceasefire. This action underscored Israel's willingness to strike Lebanese territory, influencing market pricing for strikes in Lebanon.
Israel kills top Hezbollah official in first attack on Beirut in months
11 plunges to 6%41%
An Israeli airstrike in Beirut's southern suburbs killed Hezbollah's chief of staff, Haitham Ali al-Tabtabai, raising fears of a major escalation despite the ceasefire.
Israel strikes multiple sites in southern and eastern Lebanon, including Sidon
5 plunges to 9%38%
The Israeli Air Force hit a commercial building in Sidon and other locations in the Bekaa Valley, marking the first confirmed strike on Lebanese territory in the analysis window and adding Lebanon to the count of countries targeted.
Israeli airstrikes kill 33 in Gaza amid ceasefire tensions
4 plunges to 18%30%
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed 33 people, including civilians, marking a serious escalation since the ceasefire. This violence underscored ongoing conflict risks and influenced market expectations about Israel's military actions in 2026, particularly regarding strikes outside Gaza.
Israeli airstrike kills 13 in Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon
6 dips to 7%3%
An Israeli drone strike targeted a Hamas training compound in the Ein el-Hilweh refugee camp near Sidon, Lebanon, killing 13 people. This marked a significant escalation in Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil, impacting market expectations for strikes in Lebanon.
Israel Aerospace Industries delivers Arrow 3 missile system to Germany
6 plunges to 5%42%
Israel completed delivery of the Arrow 3 missile defense system to Germany ahead of schedule, highlighting Israel's focus on defense exports and missile defense rather than offensive strikes on multiple countries. This reinforced market expectations of limited Israeli strikes abroad.
Israel conducts large‑scale airstrikes on southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah sites
5 plunges to 10%37%
Israel launched dozens of drone and missile strikes on villages in southern Lebanon, killing at least ten people. The escalation raised fears of further strikes beyond Lebanon, pushing the market toward higher country‑count outcomes.
Israel warns US of potential Iranian missile strike disguised as drill
4 plunges to 18%30%
Israel issued warnings to the US about Iran possibly using a missile launch drill as cover for an actual strike, raising regional tensions but not indicating Israeli offensive strikes on multiple countries. This heightened alert contributed to market uncertainty but did not support expectations of many Israeli strikes abroad.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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