Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death amid the 2026 US-Israel conflict have fueled hardliner accusations of a "soft coup" or plotting by figures including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf against Mojtaba Khamenei and ultra-conservative elements. These claims surfaced prominently in July 2026 around Khamenei's funeral and amid fragile US truce negotiations, reflecting tensions between IRGC hardliners and civilian or reform-oriented factions over policy and control. No verified coup attempt or military action has materialized, consistent with trader consensus pricing a low implied probability through year-end. Ongoing economic strain, protest risks, and diplomatic timelines could influence further instability signals, though resolution hinges on widely reported events meeting market criteria.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$2,121,915 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
9%
$2,121,915 Обс.
December 31
$80,690 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death amid the 2026 US-Israel conflict have fueled hardliner accusations of a "soft coup" or plotting by figures including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf against Mojtaba Khamenei and ultra-conservative elements. These claims surfaced prominently in July 2026 around Khamenei's funeral and amid fragile US truce negotiations, reflecting tensions between IRGC hardliners and civilian or reform-oriented factions over policy and control. No verified coup attempt or military action has materialized, consistent with trader consensus pricing a low implied probability through year-end. Ongoing economic strain, protest risks, and diplomatic timelines could influence further instability signals, though resolution hinges on widely reported events meeting market criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,121,915Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death amid the 2026 US-Israel conflict have fueled hardliner accusations of a "soft coup" or plotting by figures including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf against Mojtaba Khamenei and ultra-conservative elements. These claims surfaced prominently in July 2026 around Khamenei's funeral and amid fragile US truce negotiations, reflecting tensions between IRGC hardliners and civilian or reform-oriented factions over policy and control. No verified coup attempt or military action has materialized, consistent with trader consensus pricing a low implied probability through year-end. Ongoing economic strain, protest risks, and diplomatic timelines could influence further instability signals, though resolution hinges on widely reported events meeting market criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$2,121,915Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death amid the 2026 US-Israel conflict have fueled hardliner accusations of a "soft coup" or plotting by figures including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf against Mojtaba Khamenei and ultra-conservative elements. These claims surfaced prominently in July 2026 around Khamenei's funeral and amid fragile US truce negotiations, reflecting tensions between IRGC hardliners and civilian or reform-oriented factions over policy and control. No verified coup attempt or military action has materialized, consistent with trader consensus pricing a low implied probability through year-end. Ongoing economic strain, protest risks, and diplomatic timelines could influence further instability signals, though resolution hinges on widely reported events meeting market criteria.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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