Xi Jinping has consolidated control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army through extensive purges of senior military and party officials in 2025 and 2026, including investigations into figures like Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli framed officially as corruption or discipline cases. These moves, occurring ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, have removed potential rivals from key Central Military Commission positions and reinforced loyalty requirements, contributing to trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% implied probability against a coup attempt. The system’s opacity and Xi’s dominance of institutions limit visible challenges, consistent with historical patterns where internal dissent has been contained without overt power seizures. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership health events, major policy failures triggering elite fractures, or verifiable diplomatic or military crises exposing deeper divisions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено3% шанс
$155,353 Обс.
$155,353 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
3% шанс
$155,353 Обс.
$155,353 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping has consolidated control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army through extensive purges of senior military and party officials in 2025 and 2026, including investigations into figures like Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli framed officially as corruption or discipline cases. These moves, occurring ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, have removed potential rivals from key Central Military Commission positions and reinforced loyalty requirements, contributing to trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% implied probability against a coup attempt. The system’s opacity and Xi’s dominance of institutions limit visible challenges, consistent with historical patterns where internal dissent has been contained without overt power seizures. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership health events, major policy failures triggering elite fractures, or verifiable diplomatic or military crises exposing deeper divisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Обсяг
$155,353Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping has consolidated control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army through extensive purges of senior military and party officials in 2025 and 2026, including investigations into figures like Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli framed officially as corruption or discipline cases. These moves, occurring ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, have removed potential rivals from key Central Military Commission positions and reinforced loyalty requirements, contributing to trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% implied probability against a coup attempt. The system’s opacity and Xi’s dominance of institutions limit visible challenges, consistent with historical patterns where internal dissent has been contained without overt power seizures. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership health events, major policy failures triggering elite fractures, or verifiable diplomatic or military crises exposing deeper divisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$155,353Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping has consolidated control over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army through extensive purges of senior military and party officials in 2025 and 2026, including investigations into figures like Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli framed officially as corruption or discipline cases. These moves, occurring ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, have removed potential rivals from key Central Military Commission positions and reinforced loyalty requirements, contributing to trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% implied probability against a coup attempt. The system’s opacity and Xi’s dominance of institutions limit visible challenges, consistent with historical patterns where internal dissent has been contained without overt power seizures. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership health events, major policy failures triggering elite fractures, or verifiable diplomatic or military crises exposing deeper divisions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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