Russia's security apparatus continues to demonstrate effective control, with the FSB announcing arrests on August 21, 2026, of nine individuals accused of Ukrainian-directed espionage and drone plots targeting defense sites and infrastructure. These actions align with routine suppression of perceived internal threats and reflect expanded surveillance and loyalty mechanisms within the military and elite circles following earlier episodes like the 2023 Wagner mutiny. Despite economic strains including fuel rationing, modest GDP growth around 1%, and polling showing Putin's trust ratings near 69-71% in mid-2026, no organized elite factions or military elements have mounted challenges capable of execution. Heightened Kremlin protocols, Rosgvardia deployments at fuel sites, and restrictions on gatherings ahead of September State Duma elections further reinforce regime resilience. Trader consensus for no coup attempt through year-end rests on this demonstrated capacity to preempt and neutralize risks rather than on the absence of underlying pressures.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено7% шанс
$126,094 Обс.
$126,094 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
7% шанс
$126,094 Обс.
$126,094 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's security apparatus continues to demonstrate effective control, with the FSB announcing arrests on August 21, 2026, of nine individuals accused of Ukrainian-directed espionage and drone plots targeting defense sites and infrastructure. These actions align with routine suppression of perceived internal threats and reflect expanded surveillance and loyalty mechanisms within the military and elite circles following earlier episodes like the 2023 Wagner mutiny.
Despite economic strains including fuel rationing, modest GDP growth around 1%, and polling showing Putin's trust ratings near 69-71% in mid-2026, no organized elite factions or military elements have mounted challenges capable of execution. Heightened Kremlin protocols, Rosgvardia deployments at fuel sites, and restrictions on gatherings ahead of September State Duma elections further reinforce regime resilience. Trader consensus for no coup attempt through year-end rests on this demonstrated capacity to preempt and neutralize risks rather than on the absence of underlying pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Обсяг
$126,094Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's security apparatus continues to demonstrate effective control, with the FSB announcing arrests on August 21, 2026, of nine individuals accused of Ukrainian-directed espionage and drone plots targeting defense sites and infrastructure. These actions align with routine suppression of perceived internal threats and reflect expanded surveillance and loyalty mechanisms within the military and elite circles following earlier episodes like the 2023 Wagner mutiny.
Despite economic strains including fuel rationing, modest GDP growth around 1%, and polling showing Putin's trust ratings near 69-71% in mid-2026, no organized elite factions or military elements have mounted challenges capable of execution. Heightened Kremlin protocols, Rosgvardia deployments at fuel sites, and restrictions on gatherings ahead of September State Duma elections further reinforce regime resilience. Trader consensus for no coup attempt through year-end rests on this demonstrated capacity to preempt and neutralize risks rather than on the absence of underlying pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$126,094Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's security apparatus continues to demonstrate effective control, with the FSB announcing arrests on August 21, 2026, of nine individuals accused of Ukrainian-directed espionage and drone plots targeting defense sites and infrastructure. These actions align with routine suppression of perceived internal threats and reflect expanded surveillance and loyalty mechanisms within the military and elite circles following earlier episodes like the 2023 Wagner mutiny. Despite economic strains including fuel rationing, modest GDP growth around 1%, and polling showing Putin's trust ratings near 69-71% in mid-2026, no organized elite factions or military elements have mounted challenges capable of execution. Heightened Kremlin protocols, Rosgvardia deployments at fuel sites, and restrictions on gatherings ahead of September State Duma elections further reinforce regime resilience. Trader consensus for no coup attempt through year-end rests on this demonstrated capacity to preempt and neutralize risks rather than on the absence of underlying pressures.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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