Yabloko's historical performance and mounting institutional barriers underpin the 87% trader consensus against clearing the 5% threshold in Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections. The party received roughly 1.3% nationally in 2021 and has shown limited growth since, while facing intensified disqualifications, criminal cases against dozens of candidates, foreign-agent designations, and leadership restrictions since the 2025 regional votes. Its anti-war platform and registration as the sole explicitly pro-peace party on the ballot have drawn administrative pressure that limits campaign reach and voter mobilization in a system favoring established parliamentary parties. Recent Central Election Commission approval of its federal list enables participation but does not alter structural constraints or polling trends that have kept smaller opposition groups well below the threshold in prior cycles.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
13% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
13% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Yabloko's historical performance and mounting institutional barriers underpin the 87% trader consensus against clearing the 5% threshold in Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections. The party received roughly 1.3% nationally in 2021 and has shown limited growth since, while facing intensified disqualifications, criminal cases against dozens of candidates, foreign-agent designations, and leadership restrictions since the 2025 regional votes. Its anti-war platform and registration as the sole explicitly pro-peace party on the ballot have drawn administrative pressure that limits campaign reach and voter mobilization in a system favoring established parliamentary parties. Recent Central Election Commission approval of its federal list enables participation but does not alter structural constraints or polling trends that have kept smaller opposition groups well below the threshold in prior cycles.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$3,359Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Yabloko's historical performance and mounting institutional barriers underpin the 87% trader consensus against clearing the 5% threshold in Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections. The party received roughly 1.3% nationally in 2021 and has shown limited growth since, while facing intensified disqualifications, criminal cases against dozens of candidates, foreign-agent designations, and leadership restrictions since the 2025 regional votes. Its anti-war platform and registration as the sole explicitly pro-peace party on the ballot have drawn administrative pressure that limits campaign reach and voter mobilization in a system favoring established parliamentary parties. Recent Central Election Commission approval of its federal list enables participation but does not alter structural constraints or polling trends that have kept smaller opposition groups well below the threshold in prior cycles.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Обсяг
$3,359Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Yabloko's historical performance and mounting institutional barriers underpin the 87% trader consensus against clearing the 5% threshold in Russia's September 2026 State Duma elections. The party received roughly 1.3% nationally in 2021 and has shown limited growth since, while facing intensified disqualifications, criminal cases against dozens of candidates, foreign-agent designations, and leadership restrictions since the 2025 regional votes. Its anti-war platform and registration as the sole explicitly pro-peace party on the ballot have drawn administrative pressure that limits campaign reach and voter mobilization in a system favoring established parliamentary parties. Recent Central Election Commission approval of its federal list enables participation but does not alter structural constraints or polling trends that have kept smaller opposition groups well below the threshold in prior cycles.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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