Mary Peltola leads trader pricing in the 2026 Alaska Senate race after topping the August 18 nonpartisan primary with 49.5 percent to incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan’s 41.4 percent, advancing both to the November 3 general under ranked-choice voting. Recent polls show the contest as a toss-up, with Peltola holding a narrow edge or tie in most surveys conducted since the primary. Peltola’s statewide name recognition from her prior House service, emphasis on fisheries management and Alaska energy development, and competitive fundraising have supported her position, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency and the state’s Republican lean. Other listed candidates remain marginal factors given their low primary shares and limited general-election visibility.