Ramzan Kadyrov holds a commanding 99.6% implied probability in this gubernatorial election market due to his long-standing incumbency, direct endorsement from Russian President Vladimir Putin, and consolidated control over Chechnya’s political institutions and security apparatus. Official results from the September 18–20 voting, released September 21, show him securing 99.85% of the vote as the United Russia nominee, far exceeding his 99.7% in 2021 and with token opposition candidates each receiving 0.05%. High turnout above 95% and the absence of viable challengers reflect the republic’s managed electoral environment. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include formal disputes over vote validation, health-related developments, or shifts in federal backing, though the scale of the reported margin makes such reversals improbable before market resolution.