The Lima mayoral race features a crowded field that keeps probabilities fragmented, with Francis James Allison Oyague at 35% and Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca at 26% leading a long list of lower-priced contenders. A broad array of candidates and platforms prevents any frontrunner from consolidating early support, sustaining tight implied probabilities across outcomes. Scheduled primaries, potential alliances, and initial polling trends ahead of the October vote could narrow the field and create clearer separation among viable options. Resolution hinges on the official certified results following the general election.