Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads the Parti Québécois, which holds a consistent polling advantage of roughly five to six points over the Coalition Avenir Québec heading into the October 5 election. Recent surveys from Léger and Pallas Data place the PQ near 29 percent, supporting projections of a plurality or minority government and elevating Plamondon’s implied probability on the market. Christine Fréchette, who became CAQ leader and premier in April after François Legault’s resignation, trails amid voter concerns over economic management and sovereignty positioning, though her party has narrowed gaps in some regions. Charles Milliard’s Liberals remain competitive in Montreal but lack province-wide momentum. Campaign focus on trade tensions, health care, and a potential referendum has reinforced trader consensus around the PQ’s path to forming government.