The Parti Québécois maintains a strong position to secure the most seats in the October 5 election, driven by concentrated francophone support that translates into advantages under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system despite popular vote shares remaining competitive. Recent Léger and Pallas Data polls show the PQ holding a narrow lead near 29 percent, with the CAQ rising to second place around 24-27 percent by drawing from Liberal voters amid dissatisfaction with the PLQ’s performance under its new leader. The campaign, underway since late August, has highlighted sovereignty questions and economic pressures, while seat models project the PQ as the clear frontrunner for a plurality though short of a majority in most simulations. Smaller parties including the Conservatives and Québec solidaire register limited impact on the overall outcome.