The Parti Québécois maintains a narrow lead or statistical tie in recent popular vote polling at around 30 percent, supported by strong francophone backing that translates into an edge for seat totals under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system ahead of the October 5, 2026, election. This underpins the market’s assignment of the highest probability to a PQ plurality or majority. The Quebec Liberal Party remains competitive at similar vote shares, particularly in urban and non-francophone areas, while the Coalition Avenir Québec has narrowed the gap to roughly 20-22 percent following its April leadership change and subsequent polling gains. Minor parties trail far behind with limited prospects for forming government. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics in a tightening three-way contest, with ongoing by-election results and leadership transitions as key near-term influences.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПереможець загальних виборів у Квебеку
Переможець загальних виборів у Квебеку
ПК 57%
ЛПК 27%
CAQ 17%
QS <1%
$545,817 Обс.
$545,817 Обс.
Oct 5, 2026
ПК
57%
ЛПК
27%
CAQ
17%
QS
<1%
ПКК
<1%
PVQ
<1%
ПК 57%
ЛПК 27%
CAQ 17%
QS <1%
$545,817 Обс.
$545,817 Обс.
Oct 5, 2026
ПК
$56,089 Обс.
57%
ЛПК
$59,532 Обс.
27%
CAQ
$67,535 Обс.
17%
QS
$70,311 Обс.
<1%
ПКК
$169,441 Обс.
<1%
PVQ
$122,907 Обс.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains a narrow lead or statistical tie in recent popular vote polling at around 30 percent, supported by strong francophone backing that translates into an edge for seat totals under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system ahead of the October 5, 2026, election. This underpins the market’s assignment of the highest probability to a PQ plurality or majority. The Quebec Liberal Party remains competitive at similar vote shares, particularly in urban and non-francophone areas, while the Coalition Avenir Québec has narrowed the gap to roughly 20-22 percent following its April leadership change and subsequent polling gains. Minor parties trail far behind with limited prospects for forming government. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics in a tightening three-way contest, with ongoing by-election results and leadership transitions as key near-term influences.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$545,817Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains a narrow lead or statistical tie in recent popular vote polling at around 30 percent, supported by strong francophone backing that translates into an edge for seat totals under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system ahead of the October 5, 2026, election. This underpins the market’s assignment of the highest probability to a PQ plurality or majority. The Quebec Liberal Party remains competitive at similar vote shares, particularly in urban and non-francophone areas, while the Coalition Avenir Québec has narrowed the gap to roughly 20-22 percent following its April leadership change and subsequent polling gains. Minor parties trail far behind with limited prospects for forming government. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics in a tightening three-way contest, with ongoing by-election results and leadership transitions as key near-term influences.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Обсяг
$545,817Дата завершення
Oct 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Parti Québécois maintains a narrow lead or statistical tie in recent popular vote polling at around 30 percent, supported by strong francophone backing that translates into an edge for seat totals under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system ahead of the October 5, 2026, election. This underpins the market’s assignment of the highest probability to a PQ plurality or majority. The Quebec Liberal Party remains competitive at similar vote shares, particularly in urban and non-francophone areas, while the Coalition Avenir Québec has narrowed the gap to roughly 20-22 percent following its April leadership change and subsequent polling gains. Minor parties trail far behind with limited prospects for forming government. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics in a tightening three-way contest, with ongoing by-election results and leadership transitions as key near-term influences.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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