The closely contested 54.5% implied probability for an outright first-round victory in the October 9–10 Socialist primary reflects a fragmented field of seven candidates, including Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Fabien Verdier. Internal divisions over the closed primary format—decided by militants in July—have limited consolidation, while scheduled debates and the September 15 parrainage deadline keep vote shares fluid among PS members and Place Publique allies. Recent candidate announcements and electronic voting mechanics further disperse support, leaving room for a runoff unless one contender secures rapid endorsements or strong debate momentum to exceed 50%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено32% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 10, 2026
32% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 10, 2026
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The closely contested 54.5% implied probability for an outright first-round victory in the October 9–10 Socialist primary reflects a fragmented field of seven candidates, including Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Fabien Verdier. Internal divisions over the closed primary format—decided by militants in July—have limited consolidation, while scheduled debates and the September 15 parrainage deadline keep vote shares fluid among PS members and Place Publique allies. Recent candidate announcements and electronic voting mechanics further disperse support, leaving room for a runoff unless one contender secures rapid endorsements or strong debate momentum to exceed 50%.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Обсяг
$20Дата завершення
Oct 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The closely contested 54.5% implied probability for an outright first-round victory in the October 9–10 Socialist primary reflects a fragmented field of seven candidates, including Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Fabien Verdier. Internal divisions over the closed primary format—decided by militants in July—have limited consolidation, while scheduled debates and the September 15 parrainage deadline keep vote shares fluid among PS members and Place Publique allies. Recent candidate announcements and electronic voting mechanics further disperse support, leaving room for a runoff unless one contender secures rapid endorsements or strong debate momentum to exceed 50%.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Обсяг
$20Дата завершення
Oct 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The closely contested 54.5% implied probability for an outright first-round victory in the October 9–10 Socialist primary reflects a fragmented field of seven candidates, including Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Fabien Verdier. Internal divisions over the closed primary format—decided by militants in July—have limited consolidation, while scheduled debates and the September 15 parrainage deadline keep vote shares fluid among PS members and Place Publique allies. Recent candidate announcements and electronic voting mechanics further disperse support, leaving room for a runoff unless one contender secures rapid endorsements or strong debate momentum to exceed 50%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання