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icon for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Геополітика·Припинення вогню в Ірані

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

icon for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Геополітика·Припинення вогню в Ірані

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

$8,448,735 Обс.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$8,448,735 Обс.

Polymarket

September 30

$261,314 Обс.

1%

December 31

$225,628 Обс.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-brokered framework agreement in late June 2026 that establishes two pilot zones in southern Lebanon for limited Israeli troop redeployment to the Lebanese Armed Forces, with any broader withdrawal tied to verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah and other non-state groups. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that forces will remain in the security zone as long as Hezbollah poses a threat, while Hezbollah has rejected the terms as surrender. Implementation depends on a U.S.-backed military coordination group overseeing phased steps, reconstruction in pilot areas, and Lebanese army deployment. As of September 2026, trader sentiment reflects the conditional nature of the deal, with progress hinging on disarmament verification and absence of renewed escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Обсяг
$8,448,735
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-brokered framework agreement in late June 2026 that establishes two pilot zones in southern Lebanon for limited Israeli troop redeployment to the Lebanese Armed Forces, with any broader withdrawal tied to verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah and other non-state groups. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that forces will remain in the security zone as long as Hezbollah poses a threat, while Hezbollah has rejected the terms as surrender. Implementation depends on a U.S.-backed military coordination group overseeing phased steps, reconstruction in pilot areas, and Lebanese army deployment. As of September 2026, trader sentiment reflects the conditional nature of the deal, with progress hinging on disarmament verification and absence of renewed escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Обсяг
$8,448,735
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

Пов'язане

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Israeli forces enter Tyre by September 30?

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 7 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «December 31» з 6%, далі «September 30» з 1%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?» згенерував $8.4 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Apr 16, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?», перегляньте 7 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Це відкритий ринок. Поточний лідер для «Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?» — «December 31» лише з 6%, а «September 30» — близько позаду з 1%. Жоден результат не має впевненої більшості — трейдери вважають це дуже невизначеним.

Правила вирішення для «Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.