Recent Chinese military activities around Taiwan have centered on gray-zone coercion, including frequent air defense identification zone incursions, naval patrols, and exercises emphasizing joint blockades and quarantine operations rather than full amphibious landings. Beijing’s ongoing leadership purges within the People’s Liberation Army have further complicated command readiness for complex cross-strait operations. Taiwan has responded by accelerating defense spending, including record 2027 budgets for missiles, drones, and munitions, while the United States and allies maintain deterrence signaling ahead of the scheduled Xi-Trump meeting. Analysts note the substantial economic costs, unproven joint capabilities, and lack of recent combat experience continue to favor coercive pressure over invasion within the 2027 window, aligning with the market’s strong consensus against near-term military action.