Ongoing bilateral trade talks and prior framework agreements underpin the elevated Yes odds. A November 2025 truce reduced reciprocal tariffs and extended exclusions through November 2026, followed by May 2026 commitments on agricultural purchases and reciprocal tariff discussions on $30 billion in goods. July 2026 Section 301 actions imposed new duties on Chinese imports yet signaled administration intent to cap rates near 20% levels from the earlier truce rather than escalate. With the current pause set to lapse in November and both sides maintaining diplomatic channels, traders price in a strong likelihood of further mutual adjustments or extensions before December 31. Scheduled leadership engagement and avoidance of broader trade disruption reinforce this consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
$216,811 Обс.
$216,811 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$216,811 Обс.
$216,811 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral trade talks and prior framework agreements underpin the elevated Yes odds. A November 2025 truce reduced reciprocal tariffs and extended exclusions through November 2026, followed by May 2026 commitments on agricultural purchases and reciprocal tariff discussions on $30 billion in goods. July 2026 Section 301 actions imposed new duties on Chinese imports yet signaled administration intent to cap rates near 20% levels from the earlier truce rather than escalate. With the current pause set to lapse in November and both sides maintaining diplomatic channels, traders price in a strong likelihood of further mutual adjustments or extensions before December 31. Scheduled leadership engagement and avoidance of broader trade disruption reinforce this consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ринок відкрито: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$216,811Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral trade talks and prior framework agreements underpin the elevated Yes odds. A November 2025 truce reduced reciprocal tariffs and extended exclusions through November 2026, followed by May 2026 commitments on agricultural purchases and reciprocal tariff discussions on $30 billion in goods. July 2026 Section 301 actions imposed new duties on Chinese imports yet signaled administration intent to cap rates near 20% levels from the earlier truce rather than escalate. With the current pause set to lapse in November and both sides maintaining diplomatic channels, traders price in a strong likelihood of further mutual adjustments or extensions before December 31. Scheduled leadership engagement and avoidance of broader trade disruption reinforce this consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$216,811Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing bilateral trade talks and prior framework agreements underpin the elevated Yes odds. A November 2025 truce reduced reciprocal tariffs and extended exclusions through November 2026, followed by May 2026 commitments on agricultural purchases and reciprocal tariff discussions on $30 billion in goods. July 2026 Section 301 actions imposed new duties on Chinese imports yet signaled administration intent to cap rates near 20% levels from the earlier truce rather than escalate. With the current pause set to lapse in November and both sides maintaining diplomatic channels, traders price in a strong likelihood of further mutual adjustments or extensions before December 31. Scheduled leadership engagement and avoidance of broader trade disruption reinforce this consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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