Traders assign a 93% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by June 2027, reflecting Beijing’s sustained focus on gray-zone coercion through coast guard patrols, maritime quarantine rehearsals, and law-enforcement operations east of the island rather than immediate amphibious preparations. In recent months, Chinese vessels have conducted repeated patrols in Pacific waters off Taiwan’s east coast, normalizing presence without crossing into kinetic conflict, while PLA exercises emphasize blockade scenarios over landing operations. Taiwan has responded with increased defense budgets, combat-readiness drills, and procurement of uncrewed systems and missiles, alongside ongoing U.S. diplomatic engagement that includes leader-level summits. These patterns indicate a preference for incremental pressure and capability-building over near-term invasion, consistent with assessments that no fixed 2027 timeline is in place.