The low implied probability of foreign intervention in Gaza by mid-2026 reflects the stalled transition from ceasefire to an International Stabilization Force under the US-backed Board of Peace framework. Hamas leaders have repeatedly rejected disarmament and any external military presence, complicating deployment of planned multinational troops from countries including Indonesia, Egypt, and Jordan. Efforts remain focused on a Palestinian technocratic committee for interim governance, with Israeli forces maintaining positions and the UN Security Council resolution authorizing the force yet to produce on-ground results. Negotiations over mandate, timeline, and Hamas compliance continue without resolution, while US monitoring assets operate from Israel rather than inside the territory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$634,824 Обс.

30 червня
7%
$634,824 Обс.

30 червня
7%
The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.
Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border.
Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.
Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 18, 2026, 6:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.
Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border.
Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.
Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The low implied probability of foreign intervention in Gaza by mid-2026 reflects the stalled transition from ceasefire to an International Stabilization Force under the US-backed Board of Peace framework. Hamas leaders have repeatedly rejected disarmament and any external military presence, complicating deployment of planned multinational troops from countries including Indonesia, Egypt, and Jordan. Efforts remain focused on a Palestinian technocratic committee for interim governance, with Israeli forces maintaining positions and the UN Security Council resolution authorizing the force yet to produce on-ground results. Negotiations over mandate, timeline, and Hamas compliance continue without resolution, while US monitoring assets operate from Israel rather than inside the territory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання