Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable with stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium buried under rubble. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed Tehran to maintaining the nuclear status quo and reaffirmed its NPT obligations, though follow-on talks have stalled without restoring full IAEA access to damaged locations. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at peripheral sites such as Parchin and Pickaxe Mountain, yet no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities. With roughly four months remaining before 2027 and the program described by officials and analysts as dormant, traders assess the barriers to conducting a nuclear test in the resolution window as substantial.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
6% шанс
$251,515 Обс.
$251,515 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
6% шанс
$251,515 Обс.
$251,515 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable with stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium buried under rubble. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed Tehran to maintaining the nuclear status quo and reaffirmed its NPT obligations, though follow-on talks have stalled without restoring full IAEA access to damaged locations. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at peripheral sites such as Parchin and Pickaxe Mountain, yet no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities. With roughly four months remaining before 2027 and the program described by officials and analysts as dormant, traders assess the barriers to conducting a nuclear test in the resolution window as substantial.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$251,515Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable with stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium buried under rubble. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed Tehran to maintaining the nuclear status quo and reaffirmed its NPT obligations, though follow-on talks have stalled without restoring full IAEA access to damaged locations. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at peripheral sites such as Parchin and Pickaxe Mountain, yet no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities. With roughly four months remaining before 2027 and the program described by officials and analysts as dormant, traders assess the barriers to conducting a nuclear test in the resolution window as substantial.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$251,515Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable with stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium buried under rubble. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed Tehran to maintaining the nuclear status quo and reaffirmed its NPT obligations, though follow-on talks have stalled without restoring full IAEA access to damaged locations. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at peripheral sites such as Parchin and Pickaxe Mountain, yet no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities. With roughly four months remaining before 2027 and the program described by officials and analysts as dormant, traders assess the barriers to conducting a nuclear test in the resolution window as substantial.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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