US and Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Esfahan in early March 2026, have severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment and potential weaponization infrastructure, as confirmed by satellite imagery and IAEA reports showing no radiation increases or diversion to military use. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations, brokered by Pakistan in April, include Iran's signals to transfer enriched uranium stockpiles, reducing breakout risks amid post-war reconstruction challenges. IAEA safeguards verification through February 2026 found no evidence of an active weapons program, reinforcing trader consensus at 92.5% against a nuclear test before 2027, though diplomatic setbacks or regime shifts could alter trajectories.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$170,707 Обс.
$170,707 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$170,707 Обс.
$170,707 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Esfahan in early March 2026, have severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment and potential weaponization infrastructure, as confirmed by satellite imagery and IAEA reports showing no radiation increases or diversion to military use. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations, brokered by Pakistan in April, include Iran's signals to transfer enriched uranium stockpiles, reducing breakout risks amid post-war reconstruction challenges. IAEA safeguards verification through February 2026 found no evidence of an active weapons program, reinforcing trader consensus at 92.5% against a nuclear test before 2027, though diplomatic setbacks or regime shifts could alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$170,707Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Esfahan in early March 2026, have severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment and potential weaponization infrastructure, as confirmed by satellite imagery and IAEA reports showing no radiation increases or diversion to military use. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations, brokered by Pakistan in April, include Iran's signals to transfer enriched uranium stockpiles, reducing breakout risks amid post-war reconstruction challenges. IAEA safeguards verification through February 2026 found no evidence of an active weapons program, reinforcing trader consensus at 92.5% against a nuclear test before 2027, though diplomatic setbacks or regime shifts could alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$170,707Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Esfahan in early March 2026, have severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment and potential weaponization infrastructure, as confirmed by satellite imagery and IAEA reports showing no radiation increases or diversion to military use. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations, brokered by Pakistan in April, include Iran's signals to transfer enriched uranium stockpiles, reducing breakout risks amid post-war reconstruction challenges. IAEA safeguards verification through February 2026 found no evidence of an active weapons program, reinforcing trader consensus at 92.5% against a nuclear test before 2027, though diplomatic setbacks or regime shifts could alter trajectories.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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