U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, rendering large portions of its highly enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible and halting large-scale enrichment activities. IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence reports indicate these operations extended Iran's breakout timeline to nine-to-twelve months or longer, with no verified resumption of enrichment through early 2026. Restricted inspector access, ongoing reconstruction vulnerabilities, active sanctions, and diplomatic negotiations over verification and stockpile measures further constrain rapid progress toward weaponization. These verified setbacks sustain the trader consensus reflected in the 92% implied probability against an Iranian nuclear test by December 31, 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$200,361 Обс.
$200,361 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$200,361 Обс.
$200,361 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, rendering large portions of its highly enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible and halting large-scale enrichment activities. IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence reports indicate these operations extended Iran's breakout timeline to nine-to-twelve months or longer, with no verified resumption of enrichment through early 2026. Restricted inspector access, ongoing reconstruction vulnerabilities, active sanctions, and diplomatic negotiations over verification and stockpile measures further constrain rapid progress toward weaponization. These verified setbacks sustain the trader consensus reflected in the 92% implied probability against an Iranian nuclear test by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$200,361Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, rendering large portions of its highly enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible and halting large-scale enrichment activities. IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence reports indicate these operations extended Iran's breakout timeline to nine-to-twelve months or longer, with no verified resumption of enrichment through early 2026. Restricted inspector access, ongoing reconstruction vulnerabilities, active sanctions, and diplomatic negotiations over verification and stockpile measures further constrain rapid progress toward weaponization. These verified setbacks sustain the trader consensus reflected in the 92% implied probability against an Iranian nuclear test by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$200,361Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, rendering large portions of its highly enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible and halting large-scale enrichment activities. IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence reports indicate these operations extended Iran's breakout timeline to nine-to-twelve months or longer, with no verified resumption of enrichment through early 2026. Restricted inspector access, ongoing reconstruction vulnerabilities, active sanctions, and diplomatic negotiations over verification and stockpile measures further constrain rapid progress toward weaponization. These verified setbacks sustain the trader consensus reflected in the 92% implied probability against an Iranian nuclear test by December 31, 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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