Trader consensus assigns low probabilities—2% by June 30, 9% by September 30, and 12% by December 31, 2026—to Russia conducting an intentional nuclear detonation producing a chain reaction, reflecting no verified preparations despite post-New START expiry tensions in February. US intelligence warnings over the past 48 hours highlight Russia's development of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon for low-Earth orbit deployment, potentially catastrophic if detonated but not yet tested. Earlier US claims of Russian supercritical tests remain disputed, while October 2025 Burevestnik missile trials involved nuclear propulsion absent fission or fusion yield. Ongoing Ukraine conflict and reciprocal testing rhetoric could prompt shifts, with no scheduled detonations announced.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$1,342,565 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
30 червня 2026
2%
30 вересня 2026 року
9%
31 грудня 2026 року
12%
$1,342,565 Обс.
30 червня 2026
$4,433 Обс.
2%
30 вересня 2026 року
$1,400 Обс.
9%
31 грудня 2026 року
$12,159 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns low probabilities—2% by June 30, 9% by September 30, and 12% by December 31, 2026—to Russia conducting an intentional nuclear detonation producing a chain reaction, reflecting no verified preparations despite post-New START expiry tensions in February. US intelligence warnings over the past 48 hours highlight Russia's development of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon for low-Earth orbit deployment, potentially catastrophic if detonated but not yet tested. Earlier US claims of Russian supercritical tests remain disputed, while October 2025 Burevestnik missile trials involved nuclear propulsion absent fission or fusion yield. Ongoing Ukraine conflict and reciprocal testing rhetoric could prompt shifts, with no scheduled detonations announced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,342,565Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns low probabilities—2% by June 30, 9% by September 30, and 12% by December 31, 2026—to Russia conducting an intentional nuclear detonation producing a chain reaction, reflecting no verified preparations despite post-New START expiry tensions in February. US intelligence warnings over the past 48 hours highlight Russia's development of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon for low-Earth orbit deployment, potentially catastrophic if detonated but not yet tested. Earlier US claims of Russian supercritical tests remain disputed, while October 2025 Burevestnik missile trials involved nuclear propulsion absent fission or fusion yield. Ongoing Ukraine conflict and reciprocal testing rhetoric could prompt shifts, with no scheduled detonations announced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,342,565Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns low probabilities—2% by June 30, 9% by September 30, and 12% by December 31, 2026—to Russia conducting an intentional nuclear detonation producing a chain reaction, reflecting no verified preparations despite post-New START expiry tensions in February. US intelligence warnings over the past 48 hours highlight Russia's development of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon for low-Earth orbit deployment, potentially catastrophic if detonated but not yet tested. Earlier US claims of Russian supercritical tests remain disputed, while October 2025 Burevestnik missile trials involved nuclear propulsion absent fission or fusion yield. Ongoing Ukraine conflict and reciprocal testing rhetoric could prompt shifts, with no scheduled detonations announced.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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