NATO allies have provided sustained military aid, including a €70 billion pledge for 2026-2027 at the Ankara summit, while designating Ukraine a security contributor, yet no invitation or accelerated accession process has advanced. US policy under President Trump explicitly rules out membership, and internal Ukrainian assessments, including from former commander Valery Zaluzhnyi, highlight gaps in meeting alliance military and technological standards amid the ongoing war with Russia. Consensus requirements among 32 members, combined with the absence of a Membership Action Plan waiver translating into an invitation, sustain trader consensus against accession before 2027. Late peace negotiations yielding formal security guarantees or sudden shifts in US or European positions could theoretically alter timelines, though structural and geopolitical barriers make rapid change improbable.