**Persistent barriers to a direct Zelenskyy-Putin summit keep the probability of no bilateral meeting before 2027 at 78.5 percent.** Recent developments reinforce trader consensus: in early June 2026 Zelenskyy issued an open letter proposing talks in a neutral third country such as Switzerland, Turkey or Arab states, yet Putin stated he saw “no point” until experts first reach preliminary agreements on core issues. Earlier 2026 trilateral U.S.-mediated sessions in Geneva produced no bilateral leader encounter, and positions remain far apart on territory, Ukrainian neutrality, security guarantees and sanctions relief. With military operations continuing and both sides conditioning any summit on prior concessions, the market reflects the low near-term likelihood of the conditions required for a face-to-face encounter materializing before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоZelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Turkey, Ukrainian foreign minister says
Ukraine publicly stated Zelenskyy's readiness to meet Putin in Turkey, one of the neutral venues proposed earlier, but no confirmation of Putin's acceptance or meeting date was reported, maintaining market skepticism.
Ukraine announces Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Turkey
No meeting before 2027 rises to 88%2%
Ukrainian officials announced Zelenskyy's readiness to meet Putin in Turkey, one of the neutral venues proposed earlier, but no confirmation of Putin's acceptance or meeting followed, keeping market confidence high that no meeting will occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy states Ukraine entering critical war phase, discusses situation with Trump
No meeting before 2027 rises to 88%3%
Zelenskyy highlighted Ukraine's strengthened position and ongoing discussions with US President Trump, signaling continued military and diplomatic efforts but no confirmed meeting with Putin. This contributed to market favoring no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet at NATO summit in Turkey, no Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 88%1%
Zelenskyy met Trump at the NATO summit in Ankara, where Trump expressed optimism about ending the conflict, but no meeting with Putin occurred. This confirmed the market's expectation that no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting would happen before 2027.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss peace prospects at NATO summit in Turkey
Turkey rises to 2%1%
Zelenskyy and US President Trump held talks during the NATO summit in Ankara, discussing ongoing peace prospects and agreeing to continue dialogue. This maintained market interest in Turkey as a potential meeting venue but did not indicate an imminent meeting.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at NATO summit, discuss war but no Putin meeting planned
No meeting before 2027 rises to 86%4%
Trump and Zelenskyy held a positive meeting at the NATO summit in Turkey, discussing the war and prospects for peace, but no direct meeting with Putin was arranged or indicated, reinforcing the market's high probability of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at NATO summit in Turkey, discusses peace prospects
Zelenskyy met with US President Donald Trump in Ankara during the NATO summit, where Trump expressed optimism about nearing an end to the conflict and reiterated willingness to facilitate peace talks. This meeting supported the possibility of Turkey as a venue but did not change Putin’s stance, keeping market odds low for a meeting in Turkey.
Trump meets Zelenskyy at NATO summit in Turkey, discusses pushing Putin to end war
US President Donald Trump met Zelenskyy in Ankara, Turkey, discussing efforts to pressure Putin to end the war. This meeting highlighted Turkey's role as a diplomatic venue and mediator, supporting Turkey as a potential meeting location.
Trump plans to meet Zelenskyy at NATO summit, then call Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 89%4%
Reports emerged that Trump planned to meet Zelenskyy at the NATO summit in Ankara and then call Putin, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. This maintained market confidence in no meeting before 2027, as direct talks remained elusive.
Zelenskyy and Putin hold separate calls with Trump ahead of NATO summit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 86%1%
On July 4-5, Zelenskyy and Putin each held separate phone calls with Trump to discuss ending the war, with Zelenskyy expressing a 'real prospect' of peace and plans to continue talks at the NATO summit in Ankara. However, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged, maintaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
US President Trump holds separate talks with Putin and Zelenskyy ahead of NATO summit
On July 5, 2026, US President Trump held separate discussions with Putin and Zelenskyy focusing on the Ukraine conflict and diplomatic efforts ahead of the NATO summit. Despite ongoing dialogue, no agreement on a direct meeting was reached, maintaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet on NATO summit sidelines amid diplomacy push
No meeting before 2027 rises to 88%3%
US President Trump met Zelenskyy during the NATO summit in Ankara to revive stalled diplomacy efforts. Despite this high-profile meeting, no direct meeting with Putin was arranged, sustaining market belief that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to meet in 'occupied' Kostiantynivka, challenging Russian claims
Zelenskyy challenged Putin to meet in Kostiantynivka, a city Russia claims to control but Ukraine denies. This provocative invitation underscored ongoing tensions and skepticism about any imminent meeting, supporting the market's high probability of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy challenges Putin to meet in Kostiantynivka after Kremlin claims city captured
Zelenskyy refuted Russian claims of capturing Kostiantynivka and challenged Putin to meet him there, asserting Ukraine still controls the city. This public challenge underscored ongoing hostilities and the improbability of a meeting, supporting market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Global Peace 2030 president calls for immediate ceasefire and peace talks
On July 2, 2026, Sappan KC Hum, president of Global Peace 2030, publicly appealed to Putin and Zelenskyy for ceasefire and peace talks, offering independent mediation. Despite this, no direct meeting occurred, reflecting ongoing stalemate.
Zelenskyy urges allies to speed up air-defense aid at NATO summit in Ankara
Ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, Zelenskyy called for accelerated air-defense support for Ukraine, signaling ongoing conflict and no immediate diplomatic breakthrough with Russia, reducing chances of a meeting before 2027.
Putin admits no agreement reached with Trump to end Ukraine war
No meeting before 2027 rises to 83%1%
Putin publicly acknowledged that no agreement was reached with Trump to end the war during their previous meeting, signaling continued stalemate and reducing prospects for a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting soon. This reinforced market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Putin dismisses Kyiv’s ceasefire proposals, insists on military goals
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%1%
On June 30, 2026, Putin dismissed Ukraine’s latest ceasefire proposals and stated Russia will not negotiate under pressure, emphasizing unchanged military objectives. This statement further diminished prospects for a meeting before 2027.
G7 leaders push Russia to end Ukraine war, Trump urges Moscow to 'make a deal'
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%4%
On June 30, 2026, G7 leaders intensified pressure on Russia to end the war, with US President Trump calling for a deal. Despite this diplomatic pressure, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged, sustaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Putin and Lukashenko hold secretive Valdai meeting amid Zelenskyy’s threats
Putin met privately with Belarusian President Lukashenko in a secretive two-day meeting, fueling speculation about coordinated military plans in response to Zelenskyy’s escalations, indicating no imminent peace talks and reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Putin implicitly rejects recent Ukrainian ceasefire proposals
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%1%
Putin implicitly rejected two recent Ukrainian ceasefire proposals, continuing to show intransigence toward good-faith negotiations. This reinforced market expectations that no meeting would take place before 2027.
Putin and Belarusian President Lukashenko hold talks amid Ukraine war tensions
Putin met with Belarusian President Lukashenko on June 26, 2026, to discuss the Ukraine war and regional security. While this meeting involved Putin, it did not include Zelenskyy, reflecting ongoing absence of direct talks between the two leaders.
Putin rejects diplomatic solutions and emphasizes military goals in speech
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%4%
On June 28, 2026, Putin publicly rejected diplomatic solutions to end the war and reaffirmed Russia's military objectives, signaling no willingness for direct negotiations with Ukraine. This hardened stance increased market confidence that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Putin meets Lukashenko in Russia amid rising tensions with Ukraine
Putin and Belarusian President Lukashenko met in Valdai, Russia, to discuss regional issues including Zelenskyy's ultimatum to Belarus, but no indication of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, maintaining low market interest in Belarus venue.
Zelenskyy calls on Putin to take a step toward peace ahead of NATO summit in Ankara
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%1%
Zelenskyy emphasized the need for Russia to take steps toward peace, signaling ongoing diplomatic pressure but no confirmed meeting. This sustained the market's high probability for no meeting before 2027.
Putin and Lukashenko meet amid rising Belarus-Ukraine tensions
Putin met with Belarusian President Lukashenko in Russia amid escalating tensions and Ukraine's ultimatum to Belarus regarding military facilities. This meeting increased market interest in Belarus as a potential venue or actor in the conflict dynamics.
Putin meets Belarus leader Lukashenko amid rising tensions
Putin held talks with Belarusian President Lukashenko in Russia, focusing on regional security and the ongoing war, but no joint statements or agreements were announced. This event did not signal progress toward a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, keeping Belarus option unlikely.
Ukraine’s foreign minister says patience not endless, hints at need for new peace venue
Zelenskyy warned the UN Security Council that Ukraine’s patience was not endless, implying a possible shift to a third‑country venue. The statement subtly raised attention on Turkey as a realistic host, reinforcing the Turkey market line.
Putin and Lukashenko to discuss Zelenskyy’s ultimatum to Belarus
Putin planned a meeting with Belarusian leader Lukashenko to discuss Zelenskyy’s demand to dismantle Russian military relay stations in Belarus. This raised speculation about Belarus’s role but did not directly affect Zelenskyy-Putin meeting prospects, keeping Belarus as a low-probability venue.
Zelenskyy attends G7 summit in France, urges leaders to push for peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%1%
At the June 2026 G7 summit in France, Zelenskyy engaged with world leaders including Trump and Macron, who encouraged continued support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia. Discussions included the possibility of US-hosted talks, but no direct meeting was arranged, sustaining market preference for no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy attends G7 summit, offers to meet Putin; Putin refuses
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%1%
At the G7 summit in France, Zelenskyy reiterated his offer to meet Putin to end the war, but Putin refused, reinforcing market expectations that no meeting will occur before 2027.
G7 leaders urge Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks in US
US dips to 2%1%
European leaders at the G7 summit encouraged US President Trump to host talks between Zelenskyy and Putin, raising hopes for a US venue meeting, but no direct meeting occurred, and market prices for US venue remained low.
European Leaders at G7 Urge Trump to Host Zelenskyy-Putin Talks in US
US rises to 5%4%
At the G7 summit in France, European leaders urged US President Donald Trump to host peace talks between Zelenskyy and Putin in the United States, boosting the probability of a US venue.
Trump says he spoke with Putin on the eve of G7, urges US‑hosted talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%6%
During the G7 summit, Trump met Zelenskyy and said he had spoken with Putin the previous Sunday. The communication hinted at a possible trilateral meeting, reinforcing the market’s belief that a direct meeting was unlikely before 2027, pushing the “No meeting” price to a new high.
European leaders urge Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks in US
US rises to 4%2%
At the G7 summit, European leaders encouraged US President Trump to mediate and host peace talks between Zelenskyy and Putin, slightly boosting the US meeting option but not altering the dominant market view of no meeting.
Zelenskyy proposes US as venue for talks before winter as Russia denies G7 offer
US rises to 4%3%
Zelenskyy suggested holding talks in the United States before winter, while the Kremlin denied receiving any formal G7 or US venue offers, causing the 'US' option to rise and 'Turkey' to drop.
G7 leaders urge Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks in the US
No meeting before 2027 rises to 87%2%
At the G7 summit, European leaders encouraged US President Trump to facilitate a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin in the United States, reflecting ongoing international efforts to broker peace. However, no meeting was scheduled, maintaining market skepticism.
European leaders urge Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks in US
At the G7 summit in France, European leaders encouraged US President Trump to break the deadlock by hosting talks between Zelenskyy and Putin in the US. Zelenskyy proposed meeting Putin at the G7 or in the US, but Putin rejected meeting without a peace deal. This raised hopes for talks but also highlighted Putin's reluctance, supporting the market's high probability of no meeting.
Trilateral meeting of Zelenskyy, Trump, and Macron at G7 summit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%2%
Zelenskyy met with Trump and Macron on the sidelines of the G7 summit to discuss Ukraine-Russia war and peace efforts. Despite high-level talks, no breakthrough on a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting emerged, sustaining market sentiment for no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy Proposes Meeting Putin at G7 Summit in France
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%1%
President Zelenskyy publicly proposed a meeting with Putin on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France, but noted that Russia demonstrated it was not ready to speak.
Zelenskyy proposes G7 sideline meeting with Putin in France
No meeting before 2027 drops to 77%5%
Zelenskyy proposed a face-to-face meeting with Putin on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France, hoping the presence of US and European leaders would pressure Putin to attend.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss holding meeting with Putin at G7 summit; Putin reluctant
No meeting before 2027 drops to 76%9%
On June 14, Zelenskyy and Trump discussed a possible meeting with Putin at the G7 summit to increase pressure on Putin. Zelenskyy said Putin does not want the meeting. This reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy Reveals Offer to Meet Putin at G7 Summit or in the US
US rises to 5%4%
Zelenskyy stated he offered to meet Putin at the G7 summit in France or in the United States with US and French mediation, but noted that Putin refused the format.
European leaders urge Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks at G7 summit
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%1%
Ahead of the G7 summit, European leaders encouraged US President Trump to facilitate a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. Zelenskyy also discussed the possibility of a meeting in the US or at the G7, but no agreement was reached, sustaining market doubts about a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy proposes meeting with Putin at G7 summit in France
No meeting before 2027 dips to 80%2%
Zelenskyy offered to meet Putin during the G7 summit with US President Trump and European leaders present, aiming to leverage multilateral pressure. Russia did not respond positively, maintaining its refusal to engage, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss possible meeting with Putin in US around G7
US rises to 4%2%
Zelenskyy and US President Trump discussed holding a meeting with Putin in the United States during the G7 summit, aiming for a format Putin would find harder to refuse. This raised slight market interest in the US as a potential meeting venue.
Zelenskyy offers to meet Putin at G7 summit in France; Putin rejects talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%2%
Zelenskyy proposed a meeting with Putin during the G7 summit with US and European leaders present, but Putin rejected the idea, criticizing Zelenskyy's letter as rude and refusing personal negotiations, maintaining the deadlock and increasing market confidence in no meeting.
European leaders urge Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks in US
US rises to 4%2%
At the G7 summit, European leaders called on US President Donald Trump to facilitate talks between Zelenskyy and Putin in the United States, reflecting international pressure for a meeting. Zelenskyy also expressed willingness to meet in the US, but no meeting occurred during the window.
Zelenskyy offers to meet Putin at G7 summit or in the US
US rises to 2%1%
Zelenskyy proposed meeting Putin at the G7 summit in France or in the United States, aiming to leverage international support and make refusal harder for Putin. This proposal slightly increased market interest in the US and related venues but did not overcome Putin’s prior rejection.
Zelenskyy proposes meeting Putin in the US to increase chances
US dips to 2%1%
Zelenskyy publicly offered to meet Putin in the United States, suggesting it would be harder for Putin to refuse, signaling a strategic shift in venue proposal but no confirmation of acceptance from Russia.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss potential US-hosted meeting with Putin
US rises to 4%3%
Zelenskyy revealed discussions with US President Trump about holding a meeting with Putin in the US, aiming to create a format Putin might find harder to refuse, slightly boosting the US meeting option.
US President Trump declines bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy at G7 summit
US dips to 1%1%
Reports indicated that Trump would not hold a bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy at the G7 summit, focusing instead on talks with other leaders, reducing immediate prospects for a US-hosted meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Trump discusses Ukraine peace efforts with Putin and Zelenskyy ahead of G7 summit
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%3%
US President Donald Trump held calls with both Putin and Zelenskyy, expressing willingness to help end the war and encouraging talks. European leaders urged Trump to host Zelenskyy-Putin talks, but no meeting was scheduled, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Putin and Zelenskyy each speak with Trump ahead of G7 summit
Both leaders spoke with US President Trump, discussing peace prospects without concrete details. Trump expressed readiness to influence peace efforts, but no direct meeting was arranged, keeping market probabilities stable.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine pushed Putin 'a little' toward potential meeting
Zelenskyy stated Ukraine pushed Putin toward readiness for real meetings but emphasized the need to find a suitable format, reflecting ongoing negotiation challenges and sustaining market belief in no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy discusses potential US-hosted meeting with Trump ahead of G7
US rises to 4%3%
Zelenskyy revealed discussions with US President Trump about holding a meeting with Putin in the United States, aiming for a format that would make refusal harder for Putin. This raised market interest in the US as a possible venue.
Zelenskyy attends Nordic-Baltic summit, signaling continued diplomatic efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 86%2%
Zelenskyy’s participation in international summits like the Nordic-Baltic Eight reflects ongoing diplomatic engagement but no direct meeting with Putin, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy Confirms Secret Backchannel Meeting with Roman Abramovich in Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%4%
Reports emerged that Zelenskyy had previously met with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich in Kyiv to pass a private proposal for a face-to-face meeting to Putin, which Putin ultimately dismissed.
Trump endorses Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, urges compromises
Turkey rises to 6%3%
Former US President Donald Trump publicly supported a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, calling it 'great' but emphasizing the need for compromises. This endorsement briefly raised market hopes for a meeting, though no concrete plans emerged.
Zelenskyy meets Roman Abramovich in Kyiv to discuss peace message to Kremlin
Zelenskyy met with Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich in Kyiv, who offered to deliver a silent message to Putin about peace prospects. This backchannel contact indicated ongoing indirect communication but no direct meeting between the two leaders, sustaining market belief in no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy confirms private meeting with Russian billionaire Abramovich in Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%1%
Zelenskyy met privately with Roman Abramovich in Kyiv, using backchannels to communicate with Putin, signaling ongoing indirect engagement but no public meeting between the two leaders. This maintained market skepticism about a direct meeting soon.
Zelenskyy reveals meeting with Roman Abramovich as backchannel to Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%1%
Zelenskyy disclosed a secret meeting with Abramovich, who acted as a messenger to Putin, indicating ongoing indirect communication but no direct meeting. This maintained market skepticism about an imminent meeting.
Zelenskyy sends meeting proposal to Putin via Roman Abramovich
No meeting before 2027 dips to 82%1%
Zelenskyy used Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich as a backchannel to propose a meeting to Putin, but sources indicate Putin is unlikely to accept, maintaining market skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
European leaders back Zelenskyy's call for direct talks with Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%2%
UK, France, and Germany leaders publicly supported Zelenskyy's proposal for direct dialogue with Putin, emphasizing the importance of European involvement. Despite this political backing, no meeting materialized, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy confirms secret meeting with Roman Abramovich in Kyiv
Zelenskyy met with Russian oligarch Abramovich, who acted as a backchannel to Putin, reiterating the request for a face-to-face meeting. Despite this, no breakthrough occurred, maintaining market skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy confirms secret backchannel meeting with Roman Abramovich in Kyiv
Qatar / UAE dips to 1%3%
Zelenskyy confirmed he held a private meeting with Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich to pass a message to Putin proposing a face-to-face meeting, which Putin had already privately dismissed.
Zelenskyy confirms backchannel message sent to Putin via Roman Abramovich
Turkey dips to 5%1%
Zelenskyy acknowledged meeting with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich in Kyiv to pass a discreet message to Putin, though Putin had already rejected the initiative.
Zelenskyy confirms secret Kyiv meeting with Roman Abramovich acting as backchannel
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%1%
Zelenskyy broke his silence on a discreet meeting in Kyiv with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, who attempted to deliver a silent message to Putin requesting face-to-face talks.
Zelenskyy meets Roman Abramovich in Kyiv to convey message to Putin
Zelenskyy met with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich in Kyiv to pass a message to Putin, reiterating the request for a face-to-face meeting, but Abramovich indicated Putin was unlikely to accept, sustaining market skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy confirms secret talks with Putin via intermediary Abramovich
Zelenskyy acknowledged private communications with Putin through Russian businessman Roman Abramovich, indicating ongoing backchannel dialogue but no public agreement on a meeting venue or date. This maintained market uncertainty about a meeting.
Zelenskyy confirms Abramovich’s secret mission to Putin and criticizes Kremlin’s weak response
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 87%6%
Zelenskyy publicly acknowledged using Abramovich as a channel to send messages to Putin, including a ceasefire proposal. He criticized Putin’s weak response, reinforcing market sentiment that a meeting was unlikely soon.
Zelenskyy meets Roman Abramovich to send message to Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%1%
Zelenskyy confirmed a meeting with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, who reportedly acted as a discreet intermediary to Putin, indicating ongoing backchannel communications but no public agreement on a meeting venue or date.
Putin sets conditions for Zelenskyy meeting, demands peace framework first
At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin stated a meeting with Zelenskyy would only be possible if both sides first agreed on a framework for resolving the conflict, effectively postponing any direct talks. This reinforced market skepticism about a near-term meeting.
Putin Rejects Zelenskyy's Request for In-Person Meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 86%7%
Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Vladimir Putin rebuffed Zelenskyy's letter, stating he saw 'no sense' in a meeting and calling the letter rude.
US President Trump supports Zelenskyy-Putin meeting proposal
Turkey rises to 6%3%
US President Donald Trump expressed support for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, calling it 'great' and taking credit for encouraging talks. This endorsement added diplomatic weight to the proposal but did not change Putin’s stance.
Putin publicly rebuffs Zelenskyy’s meeting proposal at St. Petersburg forum
No meeting before 2027 dips to 83%2%
Putin responded to Zelenskyy’s open letter by dismissing the meeting proposal as pointless and rude, reiterating that any meeting would only occur in Moscow, which Zelenskyy refuses, solidifying the stalemate and pushing market odds further toward no meeting.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy’s offer to meet, says he sees no point
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%2%
At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin dismissed Zelenskyy’s proposal for a face-to-face meeting as pointless and boorish, reinforcing Russia’s stance that no meeting will occur before a peace deal. This rejection solidified market expectations of no meeting in 2026.
Kremlin welcomes Zelenskyy’s meeting proposal but Putin has not reviewed letter yet
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said Russia welcomed the idea of a meeting and that Zelenskyy could travel to Moscow anytime, but Putin had not yet reviewed the letter. This ambiguous stance maintained market skepticism about a meeting in neutral venues.
Putin says Russia is ready for peaceful talks but calls Zelenskyy’s letter boorish
US rises to 2%1%
At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin reiterated Russia’s readiness to negotiate “through peaceful means”, but also dismissed Zelenskyy’s letter as “boorish”. The market saw a small uptick for the “Russia‑friendly” options (China, US) before falling back.
Putin publicly rejects Zelenskyy’s meeting offer, calls talks pointless
At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin reiterated his refusal to meet Zelenskyy, stating there is no point in talks under current conditions and affirming Russia's commitment to its military objectives. This hardened stance further diminished market expectations for a meeting before 2027.
Kremlin says Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
Russia dips to 1%1%
Kremlin spokesperson stated Putin would meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow and only to finalize agreements already reached, rejecting neutral venues and limiting chances of a meeting elsewhere.
Donald Trump supports Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, urges compromises
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Former US President Donald Trump publicly stated that a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin would be 'great' and that both sides would need to make compromises, providing some market optimism for a meeting possibility.
Kremlin says Zelenskyy can meet Putin anytime in Moscow, but no deal yet
Kremlin spokesman stated that Zelenskyy is welcome to come to Moscow for talks, but Putin has not yet agreed to a meeting without a deal. This ambiguous stance maintained market uncertainty, with no significant price shifts.
Putin says there is ‘no point’ in meeting Zelenskyy after Ukraine’s open‑letter offer
No meeting before 2027 rises to 86%2%
Putin publicly dismissed the Ukrainian proposal, saying there was “no point” in meeting Zelenskyy now. This rebuff reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027, pushing the “No meeting before 2027” probability upward.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy's call for face-to-face talks, saying there is 'no point'
No meeting before 2027 rises to 87%2%
Putin publicly dismissed Zelenskyy's proposal for a direct meeting, stating there was no point in such talks at the moment. This rejection reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027, pushing prices for that outcome higher.
Putin says there’s ‘no point’ meeting with Zelenskyy
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%7%
At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum Putin said there was “no point” in meeting Zelenskyy, reinforcing the market’s view that a direct summit was unlikely and boosting the “No meeting before 2027” probability.
Zelenskyy confirms secret talks with Putin via intermediary Abramovich
Zelenskyy acknowledged private communications with Putin through Russian businessman Roman Abramovich, indicating ongoing backchannel efforts despite public rejections. This maintained some market interest in a possible meeting but with uncertainty about timing and location.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy call for talks ahead of leaders meeting
Putin dismissed Zelenskyy's proposal for talks, maintaining no direct meeting would occur before 2027, reinforcing market confidence in the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy's meeting proposal, sees 'no point' in talks for now
No meeting before 2027 rises to 89%4%
Putin publicly dismissed Zelenskyy's call for a face-to-face meeting, stating there was no point in such talks currently and criticizing the tone of Zelenskyy's letter. This rejection reinforced market confidence in 'No meeting before 2027'.
Putin rebuffs Zelenskyy’s call for talks, Kremlin says Zelenskyy can meet Putin in Moscow anytime
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 89%6%
Putin publicly dismissed the idea of meeting Zelenskyy, calling it pointless, while Kremlin spokesperson said Zelenskyy could come to Moscow anytime. This official stance reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Putin repeats ‘no point’ in meeting Zelenskyy at St. Petersburg forum
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
During the St. Petersburg Economic Forum Putin reiterated there was “no point” in meeting Zelenskyy now, reinforcing the market’s belief that a meeting will not happen before 2027 and keeping the “No meeting” odds near the ceiling.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy's proposal for face-to-face meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 89%9%
Putin publicly dismissed Zelenskyy's call for a meeting, stating he saw no point in meeting before Ukraine stopped advancing militarily, reinforcing Kremlin reluctance and increasing market confidence that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Kremlin responds to Zelenskyy's letter by suggesting he can come to Moscow
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%3%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin would be briefed on the letter but reiterated that Zelenskyy was welcome to meet in Moscow at any time. This response, along with expert skepticism, tempered expectations of a neutral-ground meeting, keeping 'No meeting before 2027' as the dominant market favorite.
US President Trump supports potential Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
US rises to 3%1%
US President Donald Trump publicly welcomed the possibility of a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, stating it would be "very good" and that both sides would need to make compromises. This endorsement slightly increased market confidence in a meeting occurring, especially in US or neutral venues.
Trump backs Zelenskyy's proposal for direct talks with Putin
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%3%
U.S. President Donald Trump publicly supported the idea of a face-to-face meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, stating it would be 'great' and that both sides would need to make compromises, adding further diplomatic weight to the proposal.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter to Putin proposing face-to-face meeting in neutral country
Turkey rises to 6%3%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sent his first direct public letter to Vladimir Putin since the 2022 invasion, proposing a face-to-face meeting to negotiate an end to the war. He explicitly suggested Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states as potential neutral hosts, which boosted the odds for Turkey while slightly lowering the probability of 'No meeting before 2027'.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter to Putin proposing face-to-face meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 77%4%
Zelenskyy issued a direct open letter to Putin proposing a face-to-face meeting in a neutral third country, suggesting Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states as potential hosts.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter to Putin proposing direct meeting in neutral venue
Qatar / UAE rises to 6%3%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a rare, direct public letter to Vladimir Putin proposing a face-to-face meeting in a neutral country like Switzerland, Turkey, or an Arab state, accompanied by a full ceasefire.
Trump supports Zelenskyy’s proposal for direct talks with Putin to end war
No meeting before 2027 rises to 83%1%
US President Trump expressed support for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, claiming credit for bringing them closer to talks, but acknowledged compromises were needed, which had limited effect on market prices given Putin’s rejection.
Zelenskyy proposes face-to-face meeting with Putin in open letter
Switzerland rises to 3%2%
Zelenskyy publicly called for a direct meeting with Putin to end the war, suggesting neutral venues like Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states, and offered a full ceasefire during talks. This renewed diplomatic push raised market interest in these venues.
Putin can meet Zelenskyy only to finalise conflict arrangements
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%5%
Putin publicly reiterated that any meeting could only happen after a final peace agreement was ready, reinforcing the market’s belief that a summit was improbable before 2027.
Zelenskyy publicly calls for face-to-face meeting and full ceasefire in open letter to Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 87%2%
Zelenskyy issued a rare open letter proposing a direct meeting with Putin in a neutral country such as Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states, and offered a full ceasefire during negotiations. This renewed hope for talks but Putin dismissed the idea, keeping market confidence in a meeting low.
Putin says Moscow can host Zelenskyy any time
Belarus plunges to 1%46%
Putin’s comment that a meeting could be held in Moscow “any time” was quickly dismissed by Zelenskyy, which caused a brief rise then drop in the “Russia”‑adjacent options (Belarus, Hungary). The market priced these locations down to 1 %‑2 % as the Kremlin’s offer was seen as non‑serious.
Zelenskyy proposes meeting with Putin, cites Switzerland, Turkey, Arab states as venues
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%6%
Zelenskyy issued an open letter proposing a direct meeting and naming possible host countries (Switzerland, Turkey, Arab states). The mention of Switzerland and Turkey caused the market to push those options into the low‑single‑digit range, while “No meeting” surged to over 80 %.
Zelenskyy publicly proposes face-to-face meeting with Putin in neutral country
Zelenskyy sent an open letter proposing a face-to-face meeting with Putin in a neutral third country such as Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states, emphasizing the need for leaders to resolve key issues. This was a significant public diplomatic initiative but was rejected by Putin.
Zelenskyy proposes direct meeting with Putin in open letter, Putin rebuffs
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 89%7%
Zelenskyy sent a sharply worded open letter inviting Putin to meet in person to negotiate peace, emphasizing direct engagement and rejecting previous peace proposals. Putin publicly dismissed the invitation as pointless and rude, reinforcing the diplomatic stalemate and reducing chances of a meeting soon.
Zelenskyy suggests Arab countries as possible hosts for peace talks with Putin
Qatar / UAE dips to 4%1%
Zelenskyy mentioned in his letter that Arab countries, along with Switzerland and Turkey, could host the face-to-face peace talks. This broadened the potential venues and slightly influenced market prices for Qatar/UAE and Saudi Arabia, though these remained low probability outcomes.
Zelenskyy’s open letter proposes meeting in Switzerland, Turkey or Arab state
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
Zelenskyy published an open letter proposing a meeting in Switzerland, Turkey or an Arab state. The market’s “No meeting” probability spiked as analysts deemed the proposal unlikely to be accepted, pushing the price to a new high of 84 %.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter proposing face-to-face meeting with Putin in neutral countries
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy publicly called for direct talks with Putin, suggesting Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab countries as venues, and proposed setting a clear date. This renewed hope for a meeting and caused market shifts favoring Turkey and Switzerland.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy’s offer to meet, says there is ‘no point’
No meeting before 2027 rises to 83%2%
Putin publicly rejected Zelenskyy’s proposal for a face-to-face meeting in a third country, calling the letter 'boorish' and stating no point in meeting until a peace deal is ready, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting.
Zelenskyy publicly proposes face-to-face meeting with Putin and full ceasefire
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%6%
Zelenskyy published an open letter proposing a direct meeting with Putin in a neutral country and a full ceasefire, raising hopes for talks but Putin and Kremlin responded skeptically, dampening market optimism for a meeting.
Putin rebuffs Zelensky’s call for talks, says meeting only to finalize deal
No meeting before 2027 rises to 86%2%
Putin dismissed Zelenskyy’s open letter as "rude" and said there was no point in meeting now, stating that Zelenskyy could come to Moscow only to finalize a peace agreement, not for substantive talks. This hardened stance reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Trump supports Zelenskyy’s plan for direct talks with Putin, urges compromises
US President Trump welcomed Zelenskyy’s proposal for a meeting with Putin and emphasized the need for compromises from both sides, providing diplomatic encouragement but no concrete meeting plans.
Zelenskyy proposes face-to-face meeting with Putin in open letter
Zelenskyy publicly called for a direct meeting with Putin to end the war, suggesting neutral venues like Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states, raising hopes but met with Kremlin skepticism, impacting multiple venue options.
Zelenskyy proposes face-to-face meeting with Putin in open letter suggesting neutral venues
Turkey rises to 6%3%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy published an open letter to Putin proposing direct talks to end the war, suggesting neutral countries like Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states as possible meeting locations, and ruling out Moscow and Kyiv. This renewed bid for peace talks increased market interest in Turkey as a potential meeting site and slightly decreased the chance of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy publicly calls for face-to-face negotiations with Putin in neutral country
Turkey rises to 6%4%
Zelenskyy published an open letter proposing direct talks with Putin, suggesting Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states as venues and offering a full ceasefire and prisoner exchange. This significantly increased market interest in a meeting, especially in Turkey and neutral venues.
Zelenskyy’s open letter names Switzerland, Turkey and Arab states as possible hosts for a Putin‑Zelensky meeting
Switzerland rises to 2%1%
Zelenskyy published an open letter proposing a face‑to‑face meeting and suggested neutral venues – Switzerland, Turkey or Arab states (Qatar/UAE). The explicit mention of these locations lifted the market probabilities for those three outcomes and pulled down the “No meeting” chance.
Kremlin says Zelenskyy can meet Putin in Moscow anytime, Zelenskyy rejects Moscow venue
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%3%
In response to Zelenskyy's letter, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed the Kremlin had seen the letter and said Zelenskyy could meet Putin in Moscow anytime. Zelenskyy preemptively ruled out Moscow as a meeting location, maintaining his stance for a neutral venue. This exchange maintained market uncertainty but reinforced the low probability of a meeting in Moscow, indirectly supporting the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Putin dismisses Zelenskyy’s meeting proposal, sees 'no point' in talks now
Putin publicly rejected the idea of meeting Zelenskyy at this time, stating the only point would be for Ukraine to stop its military advances, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy urges Putin to meet, lists possible host countries
US rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy published an open letter to Putin proposing a direct meeting, naming Switzerland, Turkey and Arab states as possible venues. The announcement spurred a small rise in the “US” outcome (who could host) from 3 % to 5 % (price before = 3, price after = 5) and a slight dip in “No meeting” as the prospect of a meeting increased.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter proposing face-to-face meeting and full ceasefire
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%5%
Zelenskyy publicly proposed a direct meeting with Putin in a neutral country, suggesting Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states as venues, and called for a full ceasefire. This renewed diplomatic push caused market shifts favoring 'No meeting before 2027' and neutral locations.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy's meeting proposal, says 'no point' in talks now
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%2%
Putin publicly dismissed Zelenskyy's call for a face-to-face meeting, calling the letter 'boorish' and stating there was no point in meeting without Ukraine stopping its military advances. This rejection kept the market skeptical about a near-term meeting.
Zelenskyy proposes face-to-face meeting and full ceasefire in open letter to Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 83%3%
Zelenskyy publicly called for a direct meeting with Putin proposing neutral countries like Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states as venues and offered a full ceasefire during negotiations. Putin's Kremlin responded that Zelenskyy could meet Putin in Moscow anytime, which Zelenskyy rejected, maintaining the deadlock.
Zelenskyy Publishes Scathing Open Letter to Putin Proposing Face-to-Face Summit
Zelenskyy sent a direct open letter proposing a face-to-face meeting in a neutral country like Switzerland, Turkey, or an Arab state, while simultaneously taunting Putin over his age and military setbacks.
Zelenskyy Proposes Direct Meeting in Open Letter to Putin
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 86%7%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy sent a sharply worded open letter to Vladimir Putin proposing a face-to-face meeting to negotiate an end to the war, acknowledging that the US was focused on Iran.
Zelenskyy publishes open letter proposing face-to-face meeting with Putin
Switzerland rises to 3%2%
Zelenskyy publicly called for direct talks with Putin in a neutral country such as Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states, proposing a full ceasefire and setting a clear date. This renewed diplomatic push increased market attention on Switzerland and other neutral venues but was met with rejection from Putin.
Zelenskyy’s open letter offers meeting in Switzerland, Turkey or an Arab state
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 86%5%
Zelenskyy published an open letter proposing a direct meeting and naming Switzerland, Turkey and Arab states as possible venues. The market’s probability of a meeting collapsed, sending the “No meeting before 2027” price sharply higher to 86 % by 10 Jun 2026.
Zelenskyy Sends Open Letter to Putin Proposing Direct Meeting in Neutral Country
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy published an open letter to Vladimir Putin proposing a face-to-face meeting in a neutral country like Turkey, Switzerland, or an Arab state to negotiate an end to the war, while ruling out Moscow or Kyiv.
Putin rejects Zelenskyy’s call for immediate face-to-face talks, sees 'no point' now
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Putin publicly dismissed the idea of meeting Zelenskyy at this time, stating the only point would be for Ukraine to stop advancing Russian forces. This hardened market sentiment toward no meeting before 2027, pushing that outcome's price higher.
Zelenskyy calls for face-to-face meeting and full ceasefire in open letter to Putin
Switzerland dips to 1%2%
Zelenskyy publicly proposed a face-to-face meeting with Putin and a full ceasefire, suggesting neutral venues like Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states. The Kremlin responded by inviting Zelenskyy to Moscow, which he rejected, maintaining stalemate and lowering meeting location probabilities.
Zelenskyy calls for face-to-face meeting with Putin in open letter, suggests neutral venues
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%5%
Zelenskyy publicly proposed a face-to-face meeting with Putin, suggesting neutral countries like Switzerland, Turkey, or Arab states as venues, and called for a full ceasefire. This raised hopes but Putin and Kremlin responses were cautious or dismissive, limiting market optimism.
Putin rebuffs Zelenskyy’s call for face-to-face talks, saying there is ‘no point’
Putin publicly dismissed the idea of a meeting with Zelenskyy, stating there was no point unless Ukraine stopped advancing militarily. This rejection reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Ukrainian drones strike St. Petersburg oil terminal ahead of Putin visit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
Ukraine launched drone attacks on critical infrastructure in St. Petersburg, Russia, including an oil terminal and naval base, demonstrating Ukraine's capability to strike deep into Russian territory, which increased tensions ahead of proposed peace talks.
Zelenskyy reiterates readiness for direct talks with Putin to end the war
During a press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Zelenskyy emphasized his willingness to hold direct talks with Putin in any format rather than waiting for other global conflicts to resolve.
Putin says Zelensky could meet in Moscow “any time” amid SPIEF
During the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Putin signaled that Zelenskyy could meet “any time” in Moscow, briefly reviving the prospect of a meeting on Russian soil and nudging the Turkey probability upward as Turkey was repeatedly mentioned as a possible venue.
Putin dismisses Zelenskyy’s invitation at NATO press conference
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
At a NATO press conference Putin mocked Zelenskyy’s earlier invitation and again ruled out meeting, reinforcing the market’s “No meeting” trajectory near the end of the analysis window.
Trump says a Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting would be great as leaders meet in Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 86%6%
During a joint news conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Zelenskyy reiterated his call for a direct meeting, while Trump publicly said a meeting would be “great”. The market’s confidence in a meeting dipped, pushing the “No meeting” price higher.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to sign agreements
Peskov reiterated that any meeting would be limited to Moscow and only for signing already‑agreed terms, cementing the expectation that no neutral‑ground meeting will occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy urges diplomatic talks before winter to pressure Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Zelenskyy emphasized the need to find a diplomatic way to sit and speak before winter, depending on increased pressure on Putin, signaling ongoing efforts but no imminent meeting, supporting the high market probability of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy urges U.S. to pressure Putin for a pre‑winter summit
US rises to 3%1%
In a CBS interview Zelenskyy emphasized the need for a U.S.‑backed diplomatic push before winter, mentioning possible U.S. venues and reinforcing the “US” outcome as a possible host for a future summit.
Putin visits Kazakhstan amid talks on regional alliances and war status
Putin attended a summit in Kazakhstan, emphasizing Russia's strategic ties in the region but offering no indication of imminent talks with Zelenskyy. This reinforced the low market price for Kazakhstan as a meeting venue and the overall low likelihood of a meeting before 2027.
Putin visits Kazakhstan amid regional diplomacy and CSTO meetings
Kazakhstan rises to 2%1%
Putin's state visit to Kazakhstan and participation in regional security meetings underscored Russia's focus on Eurasian alliances rather than direct peace talks with Ukraine. This maintained low market interest in Kazakhstan as a meeting venue and reinforced the dominance of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy meets Belarus opposition leader Tsikhanouskaya in Kyiv
Zelenskyy met Belarusian opposition leader Tsikhanouskaya in Kyiv, signalling increased attention on Belarus as a possible venue, which lifted the “Belarus” probability modestly.
Zelenskyy appeals to US for missile defense amid ongoing conflict
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Zelenskyy sent a letter to US President Trump requesting missile defense systems to counter Russian missile attacks, signaling ongoing conflict and reducing likelihood of imminent peace talks or meetings, supporting the market's high probability of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy warns of limited window for diplomatic breakthrough before winter
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Zelenskyy emphasized a critical six-month window to seize battlefield initiative and strengthen his hand for peace talks, highlighting the urgency of diplomatic efforts and the need for international pressure on Russia, sustaining market belief in a meeting but with timing uncertainty.
Putin and Lukashenko hold joint nuclear‑drill video call
Belarus rises to 1%1%
A joint video‑call between Putin and Belarusian leader Lukashenko on nuclear drills highlighted Belarus’s deepening involvement with Russia, nudging the Belarus outcome upward from 0 % to 1 % as traders reassessed the likelihood of a meeting on Belarusian soil.
Roman Abramovich secretly meets Zelenskyy in Kyiv to deliver meeting proposal to Putin
On May 21, 2026, Roman Abramovich flew to Kyiv and met with Zelenskyy, acting as an intermediary to convey Zelenskyy's proposal for a personal meeting with Putin. This event raised market speculation about a possible meeting but did not lead to immediate progress.
Putin visits China, strengthens strategic partnership
Putin's visit to China reinforced Russia's diplomatic ties with China but did not advance prospects for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, maintaining low market interest in China as a meeting venue.
Putin visits China, strengthening Russia-China ties amid Ukraine war
Putin's state visit to China reaffirmed the strategic partnership between the two countries, with no indication of willingness to meet Zelenskyy, reinforcing Russia's stance on the conflict and limiting prospects for a meeting in China.
Putin conducts state visit to China to reinforce strategic partnership
China rises to 2%1%
Vladimir Putin traveled to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping, emphasizing bilateral cooperation amid global tensions, though no direct Ukraine peace breakthroughs emerged.
Putin visits China for strategic talks with Xi Jinping
Putin made a state visit to China, reinforcing the Russia-China strategic partnership amid ongoing war tensions. This visit underscored Russia's pivot to China but did not indicate any imminent Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, keeping China as a low-probability venue.
Vladimir Putin conducts state visit to China to meet Xi Jinping
China rises to 3%2%
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing for a high-profile state visit to discuss strategic cooperation, keeping China in the diplomatic spotlight but yielding no progress on Ukraine peace talks.
Putin visits China for 25th state visit, strengthening ties with Xi Jinping
Putin's visit to China reaffirmed the strategic partnership between Russia and China, signaling Russia's diplomatic focus away from direct talks with Ukraine and possibly affecting market confidence in China as a meeting venue.
Putin visits China for strategic talks with Xi Jinping
Putin's official visit to China for talks with Xi Jinping reinforced Russia's diplomatic focus on China amid stalled peace talks with Ukraine, reducing likelihood of imminent Zelenskyy-Putin meeting and supporting market preference for no meeting before 2027.
Kyiv says Turkey can mediate Zelensky‑Putin talks
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Ukraine’s foreign ministry reiterated that Turkey could mediate a Zelensky‑Putin summit, renewing attention on Ankara as a possible venue and nudging the “Turkey” probability up from 3 % to 5 % (price before = 3, price after = 5).
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, rejects Moscow and Belarus
No meeting before 2027 rises to 86%2%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv, challenging him to come if he dares, while firmly rejecting Moscow and Belarus as venues. This hardened the market's view that a meeting in Russia or Belarus is unlikely and increased the probability of no meeting before 2027.
Kremlin insists Putin will meet Zelenskyy only after final peace deal is completed
No meeting before 2027 drops to 75%8%
The Kremlin clarified that Putin's meeting with Zelenskyy would only occur to finalize a comprehensive peace agreement, underscoring Moscow's position that no summit will happen without a concluded deal, which tempered market optimism about an early meeting.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after US-led talks stall
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%4%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated readiness to meet Putin there, signaling openness to neutral venues other than Russia or Belarus, but no meeting was scheduled, keeping market skepticism high.
Kremlin clarifies no concrete plan to end war despite Putin's remarks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%3%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov tempered expectations by stating there was no concrete plan to end the war yet and that a great deal of preparatory work remained before any face-to-face meeting could occur.
Analysts cite Qatar and UAE as possible venues after Putin’s third‑country offer
Qatar / UAE rises to 4%1%
Following Putin’s openness to a third‑country meeting, speculation surfaced that the Gulf states (Qatar/UAE) could act as hosts. Traders nudged the “Qatar / UAE” outcome up from 3 % to 4 % (price before = 3 %, after = 4 %).
Kremlin says no specifics on ending Ukraine war despite Putin’s words
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%4%
The Kremlin clarified that there were no concrete plans for a peace summit, reinforcing uncertainty about any imminent meeting. This prompted a further dip in the “No meeting before 2027” probability (from 79 % to 75 %) and a modest rise in the “Turkey” outcome (from 5 % to 5 %).
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only after peace deal finalized
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%4%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is prepared to meet Zelenskyy only after all major terms of a Ukraine settlement are finalized, reinforcing the market's dominant expectation of no meeting before 2027 without a comprehensive agreement.
Zelenskyy rejects meeting Putin in Moscow, invites Putin to Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 drops to 80%7%
Zelenskyy confirmed readiness to meet Putin but ruled out Moscow as a venue, publicly inviting Putin to Kyiv instead, further complicating venue agreement and reducing chances of a meeting in 2026.
Zelenskyy says Putin finally ready for real meetings, but format needed
Zelenskyy stated that Putin is finally ready for real meetings and that Ukraine has long been ready, but a format for the meeting must be found. This indicated progress in willingness but no confirmed meeting, supporting the market's high probability of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy confirms Putin is ready for real meetings, format to be found
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%2%
Zelenskyy stated that Putin is finally ready for real meetings and that Ukraine has long been ready, but the format and venue still need to be agreed upon, maintaining market uncertainty about timing and location.
Putin suggests willingness to meet Zelenskyy in third country if peace deal reached
Turkey dips to 2%1%
Putin indicated openness to meeting Zelenskyy in a neutral country to endorse a comprehensive peace accord, but only after a deal was finalized. This tempered market expectations for an imminent meeting, keeping probabilities low for neutral venues like Turkey or Switzerland.
Putin signals willingness to meet Zelenskyy in third country if peace deal reached
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%5%
Putin suggested the war might be ending and expressed openness to meeting Zelenskyy in a neutral third country to endorse a comprehensive peace accord. This was the first indication Putin might consider venues outside Russia, briefly raising hopes for a meeting in places like Switzerland or Arab states.
Putin signals war may end, open to third‑country meeting with Zelenskyy
Russia rises to 2%1%
Putin suggested the war was ‘coming to an end’ and that he could meet Zelenskyy in a third country to endorse a comprehensive accord. The report nudged the “Russia” outcome slightly upward but did not change the dominant market view.
Putin reiterates meeting Zelenskyy only to finalize peace agreement
No meeting before 2027 dips to 73%1%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Putin himself emphasized that any meeting with Zelenskyy would be solely to finalize a peace treaty, not for preliminary talks, maintaining Russia's firm precondition and limiting chances of an early summit.
Zelenskyy confirms Putin is ready for real meetings, but format must be found
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy stated that Putin is finally ready for real meetings and that Ukraine has long been ready, but a format for the meeting must be agreed upon. This reinforced market expectations of a meeting but with uncertainty on location and timing.
Zelenskyy confirms Putin ready for real meetings, format to be found
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
Zelenskyy stated Putin is finally ready for real meetings, acknowledging Ukraine's push for talks and readiness to meet in any country except Russia or Belarus. This reinforced the possibility of a meeting but underscored the need to finalize format and conditions, keeping market cautious.
Putin signals openness to meeting Zelenskyy with conditions
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%3%
Russian President Putin publicly indicated a potential willingness to meet Zelenskyy either in Moscow or a neutral country, aiming for a comprehensive solution to end the war. However, he attached unspecified conditions, maintaining a hardline stance that complicated prospects for an immediate meeting.
Putin states some US peace proposals are unacceptable, signaling challenges ahead
Russia rises to 4%3%
Putin publicly stated that certain points in the US peace plan are unacceptable, underscoring the difficulties in reaching a deal and contributing to a decline in the market's confidence in a meeting before 2027, while slightly increasing interest in Russia and the US as meeting venues.
Putin suggests his war on Ukraine is ending and he could meet Zelensky abroad
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Putin reiterated willingness to meet Zelensky outside Russia, reinforcing that any meeting would require a comprehensive accord, which further dampened short‑term expectations and kept the “No meeting” price near its peak.
Putin suggests war may be ending and open to meeting Zelenskyy in third country
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%5%
Putin publicly stated the war might be coming to an end and expressed willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country if a comprehensive peace deal is reached. This tentative openness influenced market sentiment but did not lead to a confirmed meeting.
Zelenskyy welcomes Putin's willingness to meet, says format must be found
No meeting before 2027 rises to 74%1%
In his evening address, Zelenskyy noted that Putin finally expressed readiness for real meetings outside Russia, stating that Ukraine has long been ready and a suitable format must now be established.
Zelenskyy confirms Putin is finally ready for real meetings, format needed
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%4%
Zelenskyy stated that Putin is finally ready for real meetings and that a format must be found to bring the war to an end. This statement raised hopes for a meeting but also emphasized the need for agreement on conditions, maintaining market uncertainty.
Putin says he is open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia
Putin publicly announced willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace deal was reached, the first such statement. The news increased speculation that a meeting could occur outside Russia, nudging the “US” and “Qatar / UAE” odds upward while slightly denting the “No meeting” price.
Zelenskyy confirms readiness for real meetings, insists on venue outside Russia and Belarus
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
Zelenskyy stated readiness for real meetings with Putin but rejected Russia and Belarus as venues, reinforcing market view that a meeting before 2027 is unlikely without a breakthrough.
Zelenskyy: Putin finally says he is ready for real meetings
Zelenskyy’s May 10 address stressed that Putin had finally signaled readiness for “real meetings”, but the same speech emphasised the requirement of a final framework, keeping the market weighted toward “No meeting”.
Putin says meeting possible only after comprehensive accord
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Putin reiterated that any meeting would only occur after a comprehensive peace accord, reaffirming the lack of a near‑term encounter and reinforcing the market’s “No meeting” trajectory.
Putin signals willingness to meet Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%1%
For the first time, Putin publicly stated he would meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a significant shift from previous positions and fueling market speculation about a possible meeting venue outside Russia.
Putin expresses openness to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia if peace deal reached
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 83%5%
For the first time, Putin stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace deal is agreed upon, raising hopes for a neutral venue meeting but conditional on progress in negotiations.
Putin for first time open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
No meeting before 2027 dips to 83%2%
Putin publicly stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a significant shift from previous refusals. This tempered market optimism, as the meeting was conditioned on finalized agreements, limiting near-term prospects.
Putin open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia after years of refusal
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
For the first time, Putin expressed willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace deal is agreed upon. This softened stance raised some market hopes but was conditional and did not lead to immediate talks, so meeting location prices remained low except for 'No meeting'.
Putin says he’ll consider meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia
No meeting before 2027 dips to 73%4%
Putin publicly stated for the first time that he would consider meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia, raising hopes for a neutral‑venue meeting and temporarily lifting the “No meeting before 2027” price from 77 % to 73 %.
Putin says he’s open to meeting Zelenskyy in a third country
Russia rises to 2%1%
For the first time Putin said he would be open to meeting Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting deal is reached. The announcement slightly lifted the “Russia” and “Switzerland” odds but the overall market remained dominated by the “No meeting” outcome.
Putin says he is open to meeting Zelenskyy in a third country once a peace deal is reached
No meeting before 2027 drops to 74%9%
For the first time, Vladimir Putin expressed openness to meeting Zelenskyy outside of Russia, provided a final peace treaty has already been agreed upon.
Putin says for first time he is open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia
Putin publicly stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting deal is agreed upon, marking a significant shift in tone but still conditional, which did not translate into immediate meeting prospects, keeping market prices for meeting locations low.
Putin says he’s open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia
No meeting before 2027 rises to 3%2%
For the first time Putin said he would be open to meeting Zelenskyy in a third country, briefly reviving hopes for a neutral‑site summit and causing a modest rise in the “Switzerland”, “Qatar / UAE” and “Saudi Arabia” odds.
Putin States Readiness for Real Meetings but Demands Zelenskyy Come to Moscow
No meeting before 2027 drops to 76%7%
Putin indicated he was open to face-to-face talks but insisted they must take place in Moscow or only in a third country once a final peace treaty is ready to be signed, which Ukraine rejected.
Putin signals openness to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
Turkey rises to 5%2%
For the first time, Putin stated he would meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a shift from previous positions and slightly increasing market confidence in a meeting occurring outside Russia or Belarus.
Putin says he will meet Zelenskyy in a third country if peace deal is finalised
Russia dips to 1%1%
For the first time Putin publicly said he was willing to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a peace deal was reached, lifting the “Russia” barrier and boosting the probability of a meeting in a location other than Russia, which lifted the “Qatar / UAE” and “US” odds as well.
Putin says he’ll meet Zelenskyy in a third nation after a lasting deal is struck
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%3%
During a televised interview, Putin said for the first time he would consider meeting Zelenskyy in a third country once a “lasting” deal was reached. The market momentarily shifted toward the “Qatar / UAE” and “Saudi Arabia” options, though the price rise was modest.
Putin says open to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia if lasting deal reached
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%2%
For the first time, Putin publicly stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace deal is agreed upon, signaling a potential venue outside Russia but only conditional on agreement.
Putin signals openness to meeting Zelenskyy outside Russia after lasting deal
For the first time, Putin expressed willingness to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace deal is agreed upon, indicating a slight softening of stance but still conditional on progress, which did not immediately lead to a meeting.
Putin signals openness to meet Zelenskyy in third country after peace deal
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%2%
For the first time, Putin publicly stated willingness to meet Zelenskyy outside Russia once a long-term peace deal is reached, suggesting a meeting in a neutral country but only as a final step. This tempered market expectations for an imminent meeting and supported the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Putin signals readiness to meet Zelenskyy 'at any moment' with conditions
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 87%7%
Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow at any moment but only if a final peace agreement is to be signed, maintaining Russia's strict conditions and limiting meeting prospects.
Putin expresses willingness to meet Zelenskyy outside Russia after peace deal
Qatar / UAE rises to 6%3%
For the first time, Putin said he is open to meeting Zelenskyy in a third country once a lasting peace agreement is reached, marking a significant shift in his stance and raising hopes for a future summit outside Russia.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, challenging him to come if he dares
No meeting before 2027 drops to 78%7%
Zelenskyy publicly invited Putin to meet in Kyiv, refusing to travel to Moscow or Belarus, asserting Ukraine's sovereignty. This bold move was seen as a strategic challenge, increasing speculation about a meeting but also highlighting venue disagreements.
Ukraine confirms three-day ceasefire with Russia amid US mediation
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%3%
Zelenskyy confirmed a three-day ceasefire arranged with Russia as part of US-led efforts, but the ceasefire was short-lived and did not lead to a meeting, reflecting ongoing tensions and stalled negotiations.
Trump Announces Three-Day Ceasefire and Prisoner Swap Between Russia and Ukraine
US rises to 5%3%
U.S. President Donald Trump brokered a temporary three-day ceasefire and a major prisoner exchange, which briefly raised the probability of the U.S. hosting a future peace summit.
Trump announces three-day ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine war
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%7%
US President Donald Trump announced a three-day ceasefire and prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the US, which was seen as a diplomatic effort to reduce hostilities and possibly pave the way for future talks.
Russia declares Victory‑Day cease‑fire for May 8‑9 as Ukraine announces its own separate truce
Qatar / UAE dips to 2%1%
Russia unilaterally announced a two‑day Victory‑Day cease‑fire (May 8‑9). The competing cease‑fire declarations amplified speculation about a possible neutral‑ground meeting, slightly raising the Qatar/UAE probability.
U.S.‑mediated three‑day ceasefire and 1,000‑for‑1,000 prisoner swap agreed by Russia and Ukraine
US rises to 2%1%
The United States brokered a three‑day cease‑fire (May 8‑10) and a prisoner‑exchange plan. Media coverage highlighted U.S. mediation, nudging the market probability for a meeting taking place on U.S. soil modestly upward.
Putin meets US envoys in Moscow to discuss peace proposals
Russia rises to 3%2%
Russian President Putin held marathon talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow to discuss peace proposals, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but also highlighting unresolved issues, which influenced market prices for Russia and the US as potential meeting locations.
Kremlin reiterates Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only for finalizing agreements
No meeting before 2027 dips to 79%4%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow only if the meeting is productive and aimed at finalizing agreements, limiting chances of a meeting without prior progress. This reinforced market belief in no meeting before 2027.
Russian drone strikes cause major blackouts in Ukraine amid ongoing peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 79%4%
Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian power grids caused blackouts during ongoing US-led peace talks, highlighting continued conflict and complicating prospects for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. This sustained market odds favoring no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy suggests Azerbaijan as possible meeting venue with Putin
No meeting before 2027 dips to 79%4%
On May 4, 2026, Zelenskyy indicated readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after US-led talks stalled, broadening potential neutral venues for a summit. This statement reflected ongoing search for acceptable meeting locations but no confirmed meeting occurred.
Zelenskyy calls for diplomatic solution before winter amid battlefield shifts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
Zelenskyy emphasized the need for diplomatic talks before winter as Russia lost battlefield initiative, urging increased pressure on Putin. This reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur soon without significant breakthroughs.
Second day of peace talks held in Abu Dhabi amid Russian attacks on Ukraine
Negotiators from Ukraine, Russia, and the US met in Abu Dhabi for a second day of talks aimed at ending the war, despite ongoing Russian attacks. This event supported the possibility of a meeting in Qatar/UAE and increased market interest in diplomatic venues.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
Qatar / UAE plunges to 2%47%
Zelenskyy visited Azerbaijan and said he was ready to meet Putin there, briefly lifting the “Qatar / UAE” odds (which also covered other Arab hosts) before they fell again.
Zelenskyy says ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after US-led talks stall
Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, signaling flexibility on venue and a push to revive stalled diplomacy, supporting market interest in Turkey and regional venues.
Zelenskyy expresses readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated he was ready to meet Putin in any country except Russia or Belarus, expanding the list of potential neutral venues and maintaining diplomatic momentum for a meeting.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after stalled US-led talks
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin in any country except Russia or Belarus, reflecting ongoing efforts to find a neutral venue and keep diplomatic channels open. This maintained market interest in alternative venues but did not alter the dominant no-meeting expectation.
Zelenskyy expresses readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan amid stalled US-led talks
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan or any country except Russia or Belarus, proposing trilateral talks with the US. This showed Ukraine's continued openness to negotiations but did not overcome Russia's restrictive conditions, maintaining market skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy says ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after US-led talks stall
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%1%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin there, excluding Russia and Belarus as venues, highlighting efforts to find neutral ground amid stalled US-led negotiations. This added Azerbaijan as a potential venue but did not significantly alter market odds favoring no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated readiness to meet Putin there or in any country except Russia or Belarus, expanding the list of potential neutral venues and signaling continued diplomatic outreach amid stalled talks.
Zelenskyy declares readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%2%
During a visit to the South Caucasus, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated he was ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, reiterating his willingness to hold talks in any country except Russia or Belarus.
Zelenskyy expresses readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan amid stalled talks
Qatar / UAE rises to 4%1%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated he is ready to meet Putin there, emphasizing willingness to meet in any country except Russia or Belarus. This statement increased market interest in the Qatar/UAE option as a proxy for Middle Eastern venues.
Zelenskyy declares readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
During a visit to Gabala, Zelenskyy stated he was willing to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, explicitly ruling out Russia or Belarus as acceptable venues.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, excluding Russia and Belarus
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%3%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin in any country except Russia or Belarus, signaling openness to neutral venues but maintaining refusal to meet in Moscow, reinforcing the stalemate.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
Zelenskyy publicly stated he was ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, flagging a potential Caucasus venue and thereby increasing attention on neighboring states, which lifted the “Belarus” and “Kazakhstan” odds modestly.
Zelensky says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Zelensky visited Azerbaijan and said he was ready to meet Putin there, highlighting a new possible venue but still no concrete arrangement, keeping the market tilted toward “No meeting”.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%2%
During his visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin there, excluding Russia and Belarus as venues. This highlighted the search for neutral locations and influenced market speculation on meeting sites.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after stalled US-led talks
Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, broadening potential venues beyond Russia or Belarus, but this did not significantly revive market probabilities for a meeting before 2027 due to ongoing diplomatic impasses.
Zelenskyy signals readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
No meeting before 2027 plunges to 1%46%
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin there, emphasizing openness to negotiations in any format except on Russian or Belarusian soil, highlighting Azerbaijan's potential role as a neutral venue.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
During a visit to Azerbaijan, Zelenskyy stated he was ready to meet Putin there after US-led diplomatic talks stalled, excluding Russia and Belarus as venues. This statement influenced market speculation about possible meeting locations.
Zelenskyy says he is ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan
US plunges to 2%20%
Zelenskyy announced he was ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan after U.S.–led talks stalled, reinforcing the view that a meeting would most likely occur outside Russia and lowering the US outcome to 2 % while keeping “No meeting before 2027” high.
Zelenskyy says ready to meet Putin in Azerbaijan during South Caucasus visit
Kazakhstan plunges to 1%48%
Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin in Azerbaijan, emphasizing willingness to negotiate outside Russia or Belarus. This briefly raised Kazakhstan and regional meeting location prospects but did not lead to a meeting.
Zelensky visits Saudi Arabia, holds ‘very productive’ meeting with Crown Prince
US rises to 3%1%
Zelenskyy’s visit to Saudi Arabia and his “very productive” meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman raised expectations of broader regional mediation, lifting the “US” outcome from 2 % to 3 % and the “Qatar / UAE” outcome from 3 % to 5 % over the next few days.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia to secure security and anti-drone cooperation
Zelenskyy arrived in Jeddah for productive talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, highlighting Ukraine's ongoing diplomatic push in the Gulf region.
Zelenskyy announces trilateral peace talks with Russia and US in UAE
Qatar / UAE rises to 3%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US would be held in the United Arab Emirates, signaling a diplomatic push that increased market interest in Qatar/UAE and Turkey as potential meeting locations.
Putin sets tough precondition for Zelenskyy meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%6%
The Kremlin announced that a Putin‑Zelenskyy summit would only occur after concrete progress in lower‑level talks, further dampening expectations for a near‑term meeting and pushing odds toward the “No meeting” outcome.
US President Trump plans to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami
US rises to 4%1%
Trump announced plans to invite Putin to the G20 summit in Miami in December 2026, raising speculation about a possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin on US soil. This contributed to a slight increase in the US meeting location probability.
Trump announces intent to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami in December 2026
US dips to 2%1%
President Trump stated plans to invite Putin to the G20 summit in Miami, raising speculation about a possible meeting location in the US. However, doubts about Putin's attendance kept market prices for the US option low.
Ukraine formally requests Turkey's help to arrange Zelenskyy-Putin talks
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha confirmed Kyiv's request to Turkey to organize a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, reflecting Ukraine's preference for a neutral venue other than Russia or Belarus, slightly raising Turkey meeting odds.
Kremlin states Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only to seal peace deals
Russia rises to 2%1%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized Putin's willingness to meet Zelenskyy only for signing finalized peace agreements, suggesting that preliminary diplomatic work must precede any summit. This hardened stance likely dampened market optimism for a near-term meeting.
Kremlin states Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only to seal peace deals
No meeting before 2027 dips to 83%1%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declared that Putin is open to meeting Zelenskyy but only to finalize peace agreements, not for exploratory talks. This hardened Russia's stance and diminished chances of a meeting in neutral locations, contributing to market declines for those options.
Ukraine asks Turkey to host Zelenskyy-Putin meeting to break deadlock
Turkey drops to 20%9%
Ukraine officially requested Turkey's help to host a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, expressing readiness to meet in any country except Russia or Belarus. This diplomatic move aimed to revive stalled peace talks but did not lead to an immediate meeting.
Putin can meet Zelenskyy only to agree final conflict arrangements, Kremlin says
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin would meet Zelenskyy only to finalize a settlement, effectively ruling out a neutral‑venue meeting and pulling the market back toward “No meeting before 2027”.
Kremlin States Putin Will Only Meet Zelenskyy to Finalize Agreements
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
In response to Ukraine's request for Turkey to host a summit, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin would only meet Zelenskyy to finalize concrete agreements, dampening hopes for exploratory talks.
Ukraine formally asks Turkey to host Zelenskyy-Putin summit amid stalled talks
Turkey plunges to 5%24%
Ukraine requested Turkey's help to organize a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, aiming to break the diplomatic deadlock. Despite Turkey's previous mediation role, market confidence in Turkey as a meeting venue declined sharply.
Ukraine asks Turkey to host potential Zelenskyy‑Putin summit
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%5%
Kyiv formally asked Turkey to host a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin summit, highlighting the difficulty of finding a mutually acceptable venue and underscoring the likelihood that a meeting would not happen soon. The request coincided with a sharp drop in the Turkey outcome and a rise in the “No meeting” probability.
Kremlin states Putin can meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict arrangements
Turkey drops to 3%6%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin would only meet Zelenskyy to finalize agreements, implying no open-ended negotiations or new meetings would occur soon. This statement dampened market expectations for a meeting in neutral venues like Turkey or Switzerland.
Ukraine officially requests Turkey to facilitate Zelenskyy-Putin talks
Turkey drops to 2%6%
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha confirmed Kyiv's direct approach to Turkey to help organize a Zelenskyy-Putin summit, emphasizing readiness for talks in neutral venues other than Moscow or Belarus. This reinforced Turkey's role as a potential host but did not lead to immediate progress.
Kremlin states Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
Turkey dips to 2%1%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declared Putin's willingness to meet Zelenskyy but only in Moscow and only to finalize already reached agreements, limiting the possibility of a neutral venue meeting and reducing market prices for other locations.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict arrangements in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 83%5%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated Putin would meet Zelenskyy only to finalize agreements, with Moscow as the venue, which Ukraine rejected. This hardened positions and lowered chances of a meeting elsewhere, impacting market prices.
Kremlin says Putin will only meet Zelenskyy to finalize a prepared conflict agreement
In response to Ukraine's outreach to Turkey, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is ready for a meeting but only to finalize and sign a completed peace agreement, rather than to conduct open-ended negotiations.
Kremlin Rejects Preliminary Talks, Saying Putin Will Only Meet to Finalize Peace Agreement
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%4%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to Ukraine's proposal by stating that Putin would only meet Zelenskyy to sign a finalized conflict agreement, dampening hopes of an early summit.
Ukraine pushes for Zelenskyy‑Putin summit to revive US‑led peace effort
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%2%
Ukraine’s chief diplomat publicly urged a Zelenskyy‑Putin summit to re‑ignite stalled US‑led peace talks. The announcement lifted the “Qatar / UAE” and “Turkey” odds briefly, before the market settled back to low levels as no concrete venue was identified.
Kremlin states Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize peace agreements
Russia dips to 1%1%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin would meet Zelenskyy only at the final stage of negotiations and only in Moscow to finalize agreements, rejecting other venues. This hardened Russia's position and limited the likelihood of a meeting outside Russia, affecting market expectations.
Ukraine requests Turkey to host Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
Turkey plunges to 1%28%
Ukraine officially asked Turkey to host a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin to reinvigorate stalled peace talks, signaling willingness to meet in a neutral country other than Russia or Belarus.
Ukraine proposes Turkey as venue for Zelenskyy-Putin peace talks
Turkey dips to 3%3%
Ukraine formally proposed Turkey as a potential venue for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, aiming to break the diplomatic deadlock. This proposal was met with skepticism from Russia, which preferred Moscow as a venue, affecting market prices for Turkey and Russia options.
Putin will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalise agreements
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%1%
Kremlin spokesman Peskov said Putin would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow and only to finalise conflict arrangements, effectively closing off all neutral‑country options and strengthening the market’s “No meeting” position.
Ukraine pushes for face-to-face talks between Zelenskyy and Putin to revive peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 75%6%
Ukraine publicly advocated for a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject momentum into stalled US-led peace talks, signaling willingness for direct engagement but Putin remained noncommittal.
Kremlin states Putin will meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict agreements
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 85%5%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin could meet Zelenskyy only to finalize agreements, implying no open-ended or preliminary talks would occur. This stance dampened market optimism for a meeting in a neutral location.
Ukraine Asks Turkey to Help Organize Direct Zelenskyy-Putin Meeting
Turkey rises to 5%2%
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha confirmed that Kyiv approached Ankara directly to help break the diplomatic deadlock and organize a direct meeting between the two leaders.
Kremlin says Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%1%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is willing to meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow and solely to finalize conflict agreements, limiting the scope and location of any meeting. This stance conflicted with Ukraine's position, further diminishing chances of a meeting outside Russia and increasing market odds for no meeting before 2027.
Kremlin states Putin will meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict agreements
Russia dips to 1%1%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy but only to finalize agreements on the conflict, emphasizing Moscow's position that any meeting must have a clear goal. This limited the market's optimism about a meeting in Russia or Belarus.
Kremlin states Putin ready to meet Zelenskyy only to finalize peace agreements
No meeting before 2027 rises to 84%3%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov clarified that Putin is willing to meet Zelenskyy but only for the purpose of finalizing agreements, preferably in Moscow, signaling Russia's limited interest in preliminary talks. This stance dampened market optimism for a near-term meeting, supporting the "No meeting before 2027" outcome.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only to finalize agreements in Moscow
Russia dips to 1%1%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated Putin would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow to finalize agreements, rejecting other venues. This stance reduced market confidence in meetings outside Russia and increased skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
Ukraine pushes for direct Zelenskyy-Putin summit to revive peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%3%
Ukraine's top diplomat advocated for a face-to-face summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject momentum into stalled US-led peace efforts. This renewed push came amid increased Ukrainian attacks and ongoing refusal by Putin to accept unconditional ceasefire.
Kremlin Rejects Preliminary Talks, Stating Putin Will Only Meet Zelenskyy to Finalize Peace
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%2%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy only to sign a finalized peace agreement in Moscow, rejecting preliminary talks or trilateral formats.
Ukraine seeks Turkey as venue for Zelenskyy-Putin summit amid stalled talks
Turkey dips to 3%1%
Ukraine formally requested Turkey to host a potential Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, rejecting Belarus and Russia as venues. This move indicated Ukraine's preference for a neutral location but did not lead to a confirmed meeting, contributing to the decline in market prices for Turkey and other venues.
Ukraine pushes for Zelenskyy-Putin summit to jolt stalled US-led peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 drops to 69%8%
Kyiv's top diplomat publicly advocated for a direct summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject momentum into peace talks, signaling Ukraine's push for a leader-level meeting and increasing market attention on diplomatic progress.
Kremlin says Putin can meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict arrangements
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin is ready to meet Zelenskyy only to agree on final conflict arrangements, emphasizing a narrow scope for any meeting and limiting market optimism for broader talks.
Kremlin spokesman states Putin-Zelenskyy meeting only for finalizing conflict agreements
Peskov clarified that Putin would only meet Zelenskyy for the purpose of finalizing agreements on the conflict, signaling a significant shift in Russian diplomatic posture and reducing expectations for a meeting.
Putin reiterates meeting Zelenskyy only after final peace deal reached
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Putin publicly stated on April 22, 2026, that a meeting with Zelenskyy would only occur as a final step to sign a peace treaty, possibly in a third country. This reinforced market expectations that no meeting would happen before 2027.
Ukraine formally requests Turkey to host Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
Turkey rises to 3%1%
Ukraine officially asked Turkey to host a potential meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin to break the diplomatic deadlock, signaling a strategic effort to restart peace talks. This raised market interest in Turkey as a venue but did not significantly shift the dominant expectation of no meeting.
Ukraine pushes for Zelenskyy-Putin summit to revive peace talks
Turkey rises to 5%1%
Ukraine publicly advocated for a direct summit between Zelenskyy and Putin to inject momentum into stalled US-led peace efforts, with Turkey proposed as a potential host. This increased market interest in Turkey as a meeting venue but skepticism remained high due to Russia's conditions and ongoing conflict.
Kremlin says Putin can meet Zelenskyy only to finalize conflict agreements
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated Putin would only meet Zelenskyy to finalize agreements, not for preliminary talks, reducing market expectations for a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy demands direct talks with Putin as Istanbul peace summit nears
Ahead of a proposed peace summit in Istanbul, Zelenskyy insisted he would only attend if Putin is present, emphasizing the need for genuine negotiations. The Kremlin had not confirmed Putin's attendance, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about a meeting.
Ukrainian FM says Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Istanbul for peace talks
Turkey rises to 4%1%
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha announced Zelenskyy's readiness to meet Putin in Istanbul, emphasizing Kyiv's desire to end the war through political negotiations. This raised market interest in Turkey as a potential meeting venue.
Ukraine Proposes Four-Way Summit in Turkey with Trump and Erdogan
No meeting before 2027 rises to 85%1%
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha confirmed Ukraine's willingness to meet Putin in Turkey, proposing a summit that would also include Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Ukraine signals readiness for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in Türkiye with Erdoğan and Trump
Turkey rises to 4%1%
Ukraine proposed a meeting in Türkiye involving Zelenskyy, Putin, and possibly Erdoğan and Trump, showing active diplomatic efforts to break the deadlock and restart peace talks.
Zelenskyy rules out Russia and Belarus as venues for talks
Russia dips to 1%1%
Zelenskyy publicly stated that peace negotiations with Putin cannot be held in Russia or Belarus, citing their roles as aggressors. This sharply reduced market confidence in Russia and Belarus as meeting venues, pushing their prices near zero.
Zelenskyy meets European leaders in London to discuss US peace plan and security
Zelenskyy met with British, French, and German leaders in London to coordinate on the US peace plan and security guarantees, showing European support but no direct meeting with Putin. This maintained market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Putin declares Easter cease‑fire; Zelenskyy agrees to reciprocal pause
No meeting before 2027 dips to 81%3%
Putin announced a 32‑hour Easter cease‑fire that was quickly mirrored by Zelenskyy, creating a brief lull in host‑country speculation and causing the “No meeting before 2027” price to dip from 84 % to 81 % (price before = 84, price after = 81).
Ukraine and Russia move towards potential peace deal amid US mediation
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
In April 2026, reports indicated Ukraine and Russia were moving towards a potential peace deal with US mediation, raising hopes for future meetings. However, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was confirmed, keeping market prices cautious.
Ukraine's top aide sees progress toward peace deal with Russia
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 83%5%
Kyrylo Budanov, head of the President's Office and key Ukrainian negotiator, expressed optimism about nearing a peace deal with Russia, noting that both sides were moving away from maximalist positions and that a resolution may not take long to achieve.
Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council announces dissolution after leader flees to UAE
The UAE-backed separatist Southern Transitional Council in Yemen announced its dissolution following internal divisions and regional pressure, with its leader fleeing to the UAE. This development further strained Saudi-UAE relations and reduced the chances of the UAE hosting a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Zelenskyy Rejects Moscow and Kyiv Venues, Proposing Neutral Territory for Putin Meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%6%
In an interview with Italian media, Zelenskyy reiterated his willingness to meet Putin but strictly ruled out Moscow or Kyiv, suggesting neutral locations in Europe, the US, or the Middle East.
Zelenskyy states readiness to meet Putin outside Moscow or Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%6%
Zelenskyy expressed willingness to meet Putin but only outside Moscow or Kyiv, suggesting locations in the Middle East, Europe, or the US. This openness did not translate into concrete plans or meetings, keeping the market's confidence high that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy proposes meeting Putin in US or Middle East, excluding Moscow and Kyiv
US dips to 2%1%
Zelenskyy reiterated his readiness to meet Putin on neutral territory such as the US or Middle East, explicitly excluding Moscow and Kyiv, emphasizing flexibility on venue to facilitate talks.
Zelenskyy Expresses Readiness to Meet Putin in Neutral Locations Outside Russia or Belarus
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%6%
President Zelenskyy reiterated his willingness to meet with Vladimir Putin, suggesting potential venues in Europe, the Middle East, or the United States, while firmly ruling out Moscow or Kyiv.
Putin Announces Easter Ceasefire Following Weeks of Proposals from Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 dips to 83%1%
Vladimir Putin announced a brief ceasefire for the Orthodox Easter weekend, marking a rare moment of mutual agreement, though structural barriers to a direct summit remained high.
Zelenskyy proposes energy infrastructure ceasefire, Putin agrees temporarily
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 83%5%
Zelenskyy announced Ukraine's readiness to cease attacks on energy infrastructure if Russia reciprocates, with Putin agreeing to a temporary pause. While a positive de-escalation step, it did not translate into progress on direct talks or meetings, maintaining market skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy expresses readiness to meet Putin in Istanbul, Turkey
Turkey rises to 4%1%
Zelenskyy publicly stated his willingness to hold peace talks with Putin in Istanbul, reflecting Ukraine's openness to Turkey as a neutral venue. This aligned with Turkey's role as a mediator and increased market interest in Turkey as a meeting location.
Zelenskyy Meets Erdogan in Istanbul and Signals Readiness to Meet Putin in Turkey
Turkey dips to 2%1%
Zelenskyy unexpectedly traveled to Istanbul to meet Turkish President Erdogan, who offered Turkey as a platform for peace talks. Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin there, though no formal summit was scheduled.
Zelenskyy Expresses Readiness to Meet Putin in Istanbul for Peace Talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%8%
Reports emerged that Zelenskyy is willing to hold direct peace talks with Vladimir Putin in Istanbul, Turkey, in any format to resolve the conflict.
Zelenskyy ready to meet Putin in Istanbul in any format
Turkey rises to 3%1%
Zelenskyy publicly stated readiness to hold peace talks with Putin in Istanbul, indicating flexibility on location except Moscow or Belarus. This reinforced Turkey as a plausible venue but did not lead to immediate meeting arrangements.
Zelenskyy visits Turkey for security talks with Erdogan, signals readiness to meet Putin
Turkey dips to 2%3%
Zelenskyy's visit to Turkey and discussions with Erdogan revived hopes for talks hosted in Turkey, but Kremlin resistance kept market confidence low for a meeting there.
Kremlin says Putin could meet Zelenskyy in Belarus if conditions are met
Belarus plunges to 1%46%
Peskov confirmed that Putin was willing to meet Zelenskyy under “certain conditions”, reviving speculation about a possible Belarus venue. The “Belarus” odds briefly rose before falling again as no concrete plan materialised.
Zelenskyy signs defence deals with UAE and Qatar on Gulf tour
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy’s Gulf tour culminated in defence‑cooperation agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. The high‑profile visits raised expectations that the Middle East could serve as a meeting venue, lifting the “Qatar / UAE” price while the “No meeting” price fell slightly.
Zelenskyy signs 10‑year defence pact in Qatar and meets UAE president
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%3%
Zelenskyy’s state visit to Doha and a defence‑cooperation agreement with Qatar (followed by a stop in the UAE) created a concrete link between the Ukrainian president and the Gulf, which nudged the “Qatar / UAE” option upward in the market.
Zelenskyy signs historic defence deals with UAE and Qatar
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy signed 10‑year defence‑cooperation agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar during a Gulf tour, boosting market expectations that a future meeting could be hosted in the Arab world. The “Qatar / UAE” price rose from 3 % to 5 % (price before = 3, price after = 5).
Zelenskyy Visits UAE and Qatar to Secure Defense Partnerships on Gulf Tour
Zelenskyy expanded his Middle East tour to the UAE and Qatar, signing defense agreements and discussing airspace protection, while noting that trilateral peace talks were delayed due to US focus on the Middle East.
Zelenskyy visits Qatar, signs defense agreement amid Gulf tour
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy visited Qatar and other Gulf countries to discuss security cooperation and countering Iranian drones, signaling diplomatic outreach but no direct talks with Russia. This bolstered interest in Gulf states as potential meeting venues but did not lead to immediate talks.
Zelenskyy Signs Defense Cooperation Agreements with UAE and Qatar on Gulf Tour
Qatar / UAE dips to 2%1%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed historic 10-year defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, signaling active diplomatic engagement with potential Arab state mediators.
Zelenskyy Signs Air Defense Agreements with Qatar and UAE on Gulf Tour
Zelenskyy expanded his diplomatic outreach in the Middle East by securing defense partnerships with Qatar and the UAE, which briefly increased speculation about these Arab states hosting future peace negotiations.
Zelenskyy signs defence cooperation deal in Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia dips to 1%1%
Zelenskyy’s surprise visit to Saudi Arabia and the signing of a defence cooperation pact shifted market sentiment away from the Gulf as a meeting venue, pushing the Saudi Arabia outcome down from 2 % to 1 %. The focus moved toward other regions.
Ukraine and Saudi Arabia Sign Defense Cooperation Agreement in Jeddah
Saudi Arabia jumps to 16%14%
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Saudi Arabia and signed a defense cooperation pact to share drone-interception expertise, highlighting the Gulf nation's growing role as a strategic partner and potential mediator.
Zelenskyy Arrives in Saudi Arabia to Sign Defense Deal and Seek Strategic Backing
Zelenskyy made an unannounced visit to Saudi Arabia to sign a defense cooperation agreement and meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, leveraging Ukraine's drone-countering expertise to secure regional support.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia, discusses military cooperation amid ongoing war
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%2%
Zelenskyy’s diplomatic outreach included a visit to Saudi Arabia to discuss military tensions and cooperation, signaling efforts to build alliances but not directly advancing a meeting with Putin, keeping market skepticism about a meeting high.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia, signs defense cooperation deal
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%2%
Zelenskyy made an unannounced visit to Saudi Arabia, signing a defense cooperation agreement, reflecting Ukraine's diplomatic outreach to Gulf states but no indication of a meeting with Putin.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, signs defense cooperation deals
Saudi Arabia plunges to 1%48%
Zelenskyy made unannounced visits to Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, securing defense cooperation agreements. These visits highlighted Ukraine's diplomatic outreach but did not advance a direct meeting with Putin in these countries.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia for important meetings amid ongoing peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%1%
Zelenskyy traveled to Saudi Arabia for significant meetings related to security and peace efforts. This visit did not lead to a direct meeting with Putin, and the market price for Saudi Arabia as a meeting location remained very low, reinforcing the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia, signs defense cooperation deal
Saudi Arabia plunges to 1%48%
Zelenskyy’s visit to Saudi Arabia and agreements on defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar highlighted Ukraine’s diplomatic outreach but did not advance direct talks with Putin, reducing market confidence in meetings in Gulf states.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia for important meetings and defense deals
Qatar / UAE dips to 3%2%
Zelenskyy held significant meetings in Saudi Arabia, signing long-term defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, signaling a shift in regional alliances but not advancing direct talks with Putin, lowering chances of meetings in Gulf states.
Zelenskyy visits Saudi Arabia, discusses defense cooperation
Zelenskyy visited Saudi Arabia and held productive meetings with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, signing a defense cooperation deal. This diplomatic engagement raised minor market interest in Saudi Arabia as a potential meeting venue.
Zelenskyy signs defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar during Middle East tour
Qatar / UAE rises to 3%1%
Zelenskyy secured 10-year defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, strengthening ties in the Middle East and signaling Ukraine's diplomatic outreach amid stalled peace talks. This bolstered the prospects of meetings in Gulf countries but did not directly lead to a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
US Links Security Guarantees to Ukraine Giving Up Donbas as Trilateral Talks Postponed
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%1%
President Zelenskyy revealed that the US is linking security guarantees to Ukraine withdrawing from Donbas, while a planned fourth round of trilateral talks was postponed due to the Iran conflict.
Zelenskyy Claims US Ties Security Guarantees to Ukraine Ceding Donbas Region
President Zelenskyy stated that the US was conditioning post-war security guarantees on Ukraine ceding the Russian-occupied Donbas region, highlighting deep diplomatic friction and complicating prospects for direct leader-level peace talks.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, rejects Moscow meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%7%
On March 21, 2026, Zelenskyy publicly challenged Putin to meet in Kyiv "if he dares," firmly rejecting Moscow or Belarus as venues. This bold stance, amid ongoing US-mediated talks and Kremlin insistence on Moscow, highlighted the stalemate and contributed to the market's high probability for no meeting before 2027.
No breakthrough in Geneva talks between Russia and Ukraine, both sides say
The Geneva talks ended with no breakthrough and persistent political and military differences, including over territory, reducing expectations for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting and reinforcing the market's preference for no meeting before 2027.
US-brokered Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Geneva end with little progress
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%2%
The US-mediated talks in Geneva concluded with Zelenskyy accusing Putin of stalling and Russia demanding territorial concessions, which Ukraine rejected. This stalemate reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur soon.
US-mediated peace talks continue without direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Ongoing US-mediated talks in Geneva and Abu Dhabi involved Ukrainian and Russian officials but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. The persistence of indirect negotiations and lack of breakthrough kept the market favoring no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy ready for next trilateral peace talks but meeting depends on US and Russia
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%2%
Zelenskyy stated readiness for the next trilateral peace talks but emphasized that the meeting depends on agreement between Washington and Moscow, indicating continued uncertainty about a direct meeting with Putin before 2027.
Zelenskyy Says Ukraine Ready for Peace Talks but Awaits US and Russia Agreement on Venue
President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is ready for the next round of trilateral peace talks, but the timing and location depend on Washington and Moscow agreeing to meet.
Zelenskyy Says Trilateral Peace Talks Depend on Washington and Moscow
US dips to 2%1%
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated he was ready for the next round of trilateral peace talks involving the U.S. and Russia, but noted that the timing and location depended on agreements between Washington and Moscow.
US-brokered Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Geneva end with little progress
Peace talks mediated by the US concluded with Zelenskyy accusing Putin of stalling and Russia demanding territorial concessions, which Ukraine rejected. This stalemate reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur soon.
Zelenskyy accuses Putin of stalling as US-brokered peace talks in Geneva falter
U.S.-brokered peace talks ended with little progress, as Zelenskyy accused Putin of delaying tactics and reiterated Ukraine's non-negotiable sovereignty. This reinforced market skepticism about imminent direct talks, supporting the high price for no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy urges Swiss‑hosted direct talks with Putin at Geneva
Switzerland rises to 2%1%
Zelenskyy reiterated during Geneva talks that a direct meeting was essential and that Switzerland could serve as a neutral venue. The mention of Switzerland caused its market price to dip to the low‑single‑digit range.
Zelenskyy says US proposed next Ukraine-Russia talks, possible locations Switzerland or Turkey
Zelenskyy announced that the US proposed a new round of talks with Russia, potentially to be held in Switzerland or Turkey, but noted uncertainty due to Middle East tensions. This kept market interest low for these locations and high for no meeting before 2027.
Turkey offers to host next round of Ukraine-Russia-US peace talks
Turkey rises to 4%1%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy confirmed that Turkey was ready to host the next round of trilateral peace talks involving Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington, signaling Turkey's role as a potential neutral venue for negotiations.
Zelenskyy says US proposed Ukraine-Russia talks next week, possible meeting in Switzerland or Turkey
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Zelenskyy indicated that the US proposed talks could happen soon, possibly in Switzerland or Turkey, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts but no firm agreement on a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Zelenskyy says next Ukraine‑US‑Russia talks may resume in Switzerland or Turkey
Switzerland plunges to 1%50%
Zelenskyy announced that the next round of talks could be held in either Switzerland or Turkey, citing both as possible neutral venues. The market reaction was a sharp fall in odds for those two locations.
Zelenskyy announces Ukraine-US-Russia talks may resume in Switzerland or Turkey
Zelenskyy confirmed upcoming trilateral peace talks to be held in Switzerland or Turkey, highlighting these neutral venues as potential sites for future negotiations and possible leader meetings, though no meeting had yet occurred.
Zelenskyy confirms trilateral talks planned in Abu Dhabi amid Middle East escalation
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%1%
Despite regional security concerns, Zelenskyy confirmed trilateral talks with the US and Russia planned in Abu Dhabi, but noted uncertainty about the venue. This maintained market skepticism about a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before 2027.
Zelenskiy holds talks with UAE, Qatar leaders
Qatar / UAE plunges to 3%46%
Zelenskyy held a series of defence‑cooperation talks in the Gulf, meeting leaders of the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The visits were framed around anti‑drone cooperation, moving market odds away from Qatar/UAE and Saudi Arabia (each falling to ~3 %).
Ukraine says Russia has not agreed to Zelenskyy-Putin summit, peace talks depend on Middle East
Ukraine's intelligence stated Russia had not agreed to a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, with ongoing geopolitical tensions including US-Iran conflict affecting prospects. This reinforced market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Budanov States Russia Has Not Agreed to Zelenskyy-Putin Summit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%3%
Ukraine's intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov confirmed that Russia has refused to agree to a direct summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, which had been floated by US envoys.
Zelenskyy links peace talks progress to Middle East situation, notes no Putin summit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%2%
Zelenskyy stated that peace talks depend on the Middle East situation and confirmed Russia had not agreed to a summit with Putin, reinforcing market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy states Russia peace talks depend on Middle East situation, no Putin summit agreed
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%4%
Zelenskyy indicated that peace talks with Russia depend on the Middle East situation and confirmed Russia had not agreed to a summit with Putin, as floated by US envoy Steve Witkoff. This reinforced the improbability of a direct meeting before 2027, supporting the market's strong tilt toward 'No meeting before 2027'.
Russia Refuses Proposed Zelenskyy-Putin Summit
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%4%
Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov revealed that Russia had not agreed to a bilateral summit between the two leaders, driving 'No meeting before 2027' odds higher.
Russia threatens to halt peace talks unless Ukraine cedes territory
Russia warned it would walk away from peace talks if Ukraine did not concede eastern Donbas, signaling a hardening stance that reduced market expectations for a meeting before 2027.
Saudi Arabia bombs Yemen port city over UAE weapons shipment to separatists
Saudi Arabia plunges to 1%48%
Saudi Arabia bombed Yemen’s Mukalla port city after a weapons shipment from the UAE to separatist forces, escalating regional tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This conflict distracted regional powers and complicated diplomatic efforts, indirectly reducing the likelihood of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in Saudi Arabia or UAE.
Zelenskyy says Russia has not agreed to summit with Putin
Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov stated that Russia had not agreed to a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, which had been proposed earlier. This official confirmation of no agreement further solidified market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Ukraine says Russia peace talks depend on Middle East situation; no summit agreed
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%2%
Ukraine's intelligence chief stated that Russia had not agreed to a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, which had been proposed by US envoy Steve Witkoff. The ongoing Middle East tensions and lack of Russian agreement contributed to the market's growing confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy says Russia peace talks depend on Middle East situation, no Putin summit agreed
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%1%
Ukrainian officials stated Russia had not agreed to a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, with peace talks influenced by external geopolitical factors. This reinforced market expectations that no meeting would occur before 2027.
Zelenskyy expects next Russia meeting in Abu Dhabi in early March
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Zelenskyy indicated a potential trilateral meeting involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi, signaling diplomatic progress but no confirmed direct meeting with Putin. This briefly raised hopes but did not significantly shift market prices for a meeting venue.
Zelenskyy says next round of peace talks with Russia expected in March
No meeting before 2027 surges to 78%19%
Zelenskyy said a new round of talks would be held in March, but without naming a location, reinforcing the market’s view that a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin encounter was unlikely before 2027, pushing the ‘No meeting before 2027’ probability higher.
Zelenskyy expects next peace talks in Abu Dhabi, hints at possible Putin meeting
Qatar / UAE rises to 6%2%
Zelenskyy announced that the next round of peace talks would likely be held in Abu Dhabi, expressing hope for a trilateral meeting with Putin. This raised some market interest in a meeting in the Middle East but did not lead to a direct encounter.
Zelenskyy expects peace talks in Abu Dhabi after US-Russia-Ukraine Geneva meetings
Qatar / UAE rises to 3%1%
Following trilateral talks in Geneva, Zelenskyy announced a likely meeting in Abu Dhabi in early March, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts. This raised market hopes for a meeting in the Middle East but did not materialize into a direct encounter.
Zelenskyy says next peace talks expected in Abu Dhabi in March
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 80%6%
Zelenskyy announced that the next round of trilateral talks would be held in Abu Dhabi (UAE) in early March, using a format that could bring the two leaders together at a leadership‑level meeting. The focus on Abu Dhabi pushed the market away from Qatar/UAE and maintained the “No meeting” lead.
Zelenskyy expects new round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi, potential leadership meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%1%
Zelenskyy announced plans for a new round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi in early March, with hopes for a leadership-level meeting. However, no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy was confirmed, maintaining market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy expects next peace talks with Russia in Abu Dhabi in March
Zelenskyy announced that the next round of peace talks with Russia would likely be held in Abu Dhabi, signaling continued US mediation but no confirmed direct meeting with Putin. This kept the market skeptical about meetings in other locations, reinforcing the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Zelenskyy expects next round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi in early March
Zelenskyy announced readiness for a trilateral format peace talk likely in Abu Dhabi in early March, emphasizing the need to finalize security guarantees and prepare for a leadership-level meeting, but no confirmation of a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting yet.
Zelenskyy expects new peace talks with Russia in Abu Dhabi in March
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
Zelenskyy announced plans for a new round of peace talks with Russia to be held in Abu Dhabi, emphasizing a trilateral format involving the US. This reinforced the market's view that meetings would occur in neutral locations rather than Russia or Ukraine, further lowering probabilities for those outcomes.
Zelenskyy expects new peace talks with Russia in Abu Dhabi in March
Qatar / UAE plunges to 1%48%
Zelenskyy announced a new round of peace talks expected in Abu Dhabi in early March, indicating ongoing indirect negotiations with US mediation. This raised hopes for a meeting in Qatar/UAE but did not confirm direct talks between the leaders, causing only minor market shifts.
Zelenskyy says next peace talks expected in Abu Dhabi
Qatar / UAE rises to 5%2%
Zelenskyy announced that the next round of peace talks would likely be in Abu Dhabi (UAE) in early March, following Geneva talks. The news briefly raised the “Qatar / UAE” odds, which then fell as the meeting did not materialise.
Zelenskyy expects next Russia‑Ukraine talks to take place in Abu Dhabi
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Zelenskyy said an upcoming trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi could lead to a direct leaders‑level talks, suggesting the meeting could be moved to the “leadership level”. The market responded with a brief rise in the “No meeting before 2027” price as the prospect of a direct meeting appeared to improve.
Zelenskyy expects next US-brokered peace talks with Russia in Abu Dhabi, urges Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%3%
In late February 2026, Zelenskyy announced readiness for another round of US-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi and emphasized the need for a direct meeting with Putin. However, Russia remained skeptical, and no direct summit was scheduled, sustaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy says next trilateral talks with US and Russia likely in Abu Dhabi in early March
Zelenskyy announced readiness for next trilateral peace talks with US and Russia, likely in Abu Dhabi, emphasizing the need for a leadership-level meeting. However, no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was confirmed, sustaining market skepticism about imminent talks.
Zelenskyy counts on next trilateral talks with US and Russia in March, urges meeting with Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
Following a call with Trump, Zelenskyy expressed hope for a trilateral meeting in early March and reiterated the need for a direct meeting with Putin, though the Kremlin remained noncommittal, sustaining market uncertainty about a meeting location.
Zelenskyy expects new round of peace talks in Abu Dhabi, urges meeting with Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
Zelenskyy announced readiness for trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and called for a meeting with Putin, signaling diplomatic momentum but no confirmed direct meeting, which kept market prices for meeting locations low and 'No meeting before 2027' high.
Lukashenka and Putin schedule Union State meeting for Feb 25 in Moscow
Belarus dips to 1%1%
An announcement that Lukashenka and Putin would meet in Moscow on Feb 25 under the Union State framework further signaled that any Zelensky‑Putin encounter would be unlikely, reinforcing the “No meeting” view and keeping all venue probabilities near the 1 % floor.
Trump tells Zelenskyy he wants war to end within a month, discusses trilateral meeting
Trump told Zelenskyy in a phone call that he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed the possibility of a trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin, raising hopes for a meeting and influencing market expectations.
Trump discusses war end and trilateral meeting possibility with Zelenskyy
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin, raising market hopes for a meeting but without concrete plans for a direct Zelenskyy-Putin encounter.
US pushes for trilateral peace talks in Geneva
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US took place in Geneva addressing key issues like Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Despite diplomatic engagement, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred, maintaining market skepticism.
Trump calls Zelenskyy, discusses trilateral meeting possibility
US rises to 4%1%
On the eve of US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva, Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Putin. This raised market hopes for a meeting in a US or neutral venue but no direct meeting occurred.
Trump discusses trilateral meeting possibility with Zelenskyy
On the eve of US-Ukraine-Russia meetings in Geneva, Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Putin, raising market hopes for a meeting but no concrete plans emerged.
Trump calls Zelenskyy, discusses ending war and trilateral meeting possibility
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%3%
Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Putin, but no direct meeting occurred, and skepticism remained high.
US pushes Ukraine and Russia to end war by June with talks in Miami
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
Zelenskyy and Russian representatives participated in US-mediated talks in Miami focused on territorial issues, with a June deadline to reach an agreement. Despite these efforts, no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was arranged, maintaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva with peace deal discussions
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%3%
US, Ukraine, and Russia held trilateral talks in Geneva focusing on territorial issues and peace proposals, with Trump discussing a possible trilateral meeting with Putin and Zelenskyy, but no direct meeting occurred.
US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva with Zelenskyy, Putin, and Trump discussed
On February 25, 2026, Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Putin. However, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov rejected progress claims and dismissed the US-Ukraine peace plan, indicating stalled negotiations and no direct meeting.
US-mediated talks in Geneva discuss peace, possibility of trilateral meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
US, Ukraine, and Russia held talks in Geneva focusing on territorial issues and peace proposals, with US President Trump discussing a potential trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy and Putin, but no direct meeting occurred, maintaining market skepticism.
Trump signals possible US‑hosted trilateral talks with Zelenskyy and Putin
US drops to 3%6%
Trump publicly said a trilateral meeting in the United States was being discussed, briefly lifting the “US” odds before they fell again as no concrete invitation materialised.
US President Trump discusses peace talks with Zelenskyy, proposes trilateral meeting
US jumps to 10%5%
Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Putin, raising market expectations for a meeting but no direct meeting occurred.
Trump discusses possible trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy and Putin
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%2%
Ahead of bilateral meetings in Geneva, Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed the possibility of a trilateral meeting with Putin, raising hopes for direct talks but no firm plans emerged.
Zelenskyy and Trump discuss peace talks and possible trilateral meeting
Zelenskyy and Trump held a call discussing next steps for peace talks and the possibility of a trilateral meeting including Putin, but no meeting was scheduled, maintaining uncertainty and supporting the market's trend toward no meeting.
US envoy expresses hope for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting soon
Turkey rises to 6%3%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff expressed strong belief in a potential Zelenskyy-Putin meeting within weeks, aiming to resolve territorial issues. This raised market optimism briefly but did not translate into an actual meeting, limiting price gains for meeting locations.
US Special Envoy expresses high hopes for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%3%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff expressed strong belief in a potential Zelenskyy-Putin meeting to resolve territorial issues, boosting market expectations temporarily for a meeting despite unresolved conditions.
US envoy to meet Putin in Moscow as Zelenskyy tours Europe for peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 78%3%
On February 24, 2026, US special envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in Moscow with a preliminary peace plan while Zelenskyy toured Europe for support. The parallel talks underscored ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was arranged, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
US, Ukraine, and Russia hold trilateral talks in Geneva with new negotiating teams
No meeting before 2027 surges to 78%15%
The trilateral talks in Geneva involved reshuffled Ukrainian and Russian delegations and US mediation, but no breakthrough on meeting arrangements. This maintained market uncertainty and supported the trend toward 'No meeting before 2027'.
US, Ukraine, Russia hold trilateral talks in Geneva with new Ukrainian team
No meeting before 2027 rises to 72%4%
Trilateral talks in Geneva involved reshuffled Ukrainian negotiators and US and Russian officials, aiming to prepare for leadership-level meetings. Despite progress, no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was arranged, keeping market skepticism high about a near-term meeting.
US envoy expresses hope for Zelenskyy-Putin summit within weeks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%2%
US special envoy Steve Witkoff expressed optimism that proposals on the table could lead to a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin within three weeks, reflecting active US mediation efforts and raising market expectations for a meeting soon.
Framework documents for peace process being finalized, trilateral talks possible
Negotiations advanced with framework documents nearing completion, raising hopes for a trilateral meeting involving Putin, Zelenskyy, and Trump, which briefly increased market optimism for a meeting before 2027.
US envoy says Zelenskyy-Putin meeting possible within weeks, Trump may join
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%2%
US special envoy Steve Witkoff indicated that a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin could occur within three weeks, potentially including former President Donald Trump. This raised market hopes briefly, but the talks remained uncertain due to Russia's stance and lack of concrete agreements.
Zelenskyy says meeting with Putin could be decisive for ceasefire
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
On February 20, 2026, Zelenskyy stated that a direct meeting with Putin could be decisive for a ceasefire, expressing readiness for such talks but maintaining refusal to meet in Moscow or Belarus. This statement kept hopes alive but did not resolve venue disputes, sustaining market uncertainty.
Zelenskyy calls Zelenskyy-Putin meeting 'decisive' for ceasefire
No meeting before 2027 rises to 75%3%
Zelenskyy stated that an in-person meeting with Putin could be decisive for a workable ceasefire, signaling Ukraine's readiness and increasing market optimism for a meeting despite ongoing venue disputes.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, refusing Moscow or Belarus
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 71%5%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv, challenging him to come "if he dares," while firmly excluding Moscow and Belarus as meeting locations. This move was seen as a strategic assertion of Ukrainian sovereignty but also highlighted the impasse over venue, dampening market confidence in a near-term meeting.
Trilateral peace talks held amid Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure
No meeting before 2027 rises to 76%1%
Trilateral talks involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine occurred but were overshadowed by Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid, casting doubt on sincerity for peace and reducing chances of a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting soon.
US-brokered Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Geneva end with little progress
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
The US-mediated talks in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia concluded with minimal progress, as Zelenskyy accused Putin of stalling and reiterated Ukraine's non-negotiable sovereignty. This reinforced market doubts about imminent direct meetings, lowering probabilities for specific locations.
US-led peace talks continue amid skepticism over Putin’s commitment
US and European officials continued to push for peace talks involving Ukraine and Russia, but Putin’s position remained distant from draft agreements, and no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was scheduled or confirmed.
Saudi Arabia hosts 40‑nation "Peace Formula" summit, Russia absent
Saudi Arabia plunges to 2%47%
Saudi Arabia convened a 40‑nation summit on a "Peace Formula" but excluded Russia, highlighting the difficulty of securing a Russian‑Ukrainian face‑to‑face. The lack of Russian participation caused the market to drop the Saudi Arabia outcome dramatically.
Geneva talks continue amid skepticism over direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
US, Ukrainian, and Russian officials met in Geneva for peace talks, with Zelenskyy expressing hope for a leaders-level meeting but Putin remaining distant, sustaining market confidence in no meeting before 2027 and low prices for other venues like Switzerland and Turkey.
US, Russia, Ukraine continue peace talks without direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
As of February 2026, peace talks mediated by the US continued but no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy occurred, maintaining market skepticism about a near-term meeting and supporting the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Zelenskyy expects next peace talks in Abu Dhabi in March
No meeting before 2027 dips to 75%3%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that the next round of peace talks with Russia would likely take place in Abu Dhabi in early March, indicating a preference for a neutral location. This raised the possibility of a meeting in the Middle East but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was confirmed, keeping the market's confidence in a meeting low.
Peace talks in Geneva end without breakthrough, Zelenskyy accuses Russia of stalling
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
The latest round of US-mediated peace talks in Geneva concluded without agreement on key issues. Zelenskyy accused Russia of dragging out negotiations, and no direct leaders' summit was scheduled, increasing market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Difficult US-Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Geneva end without breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%5%
Trilateral talks in Geneva between the US, Ukraine, and Russia concluded without significant progress, with Russia maintaining maximalist demands and Ukraine accusing Russia of prolonging negotiations. This reinforced doubts about imminent direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Trilateral peace talks in Geneva focus on ceasefire monitoring and territory
No meeting before 2027 rises to 71%3%
On February 17-18, 2026, trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US took place in Geneva, with discussions on ceasefire monitoring and territorial issues. The talks were described as difficult with limited progress, and Zelenskyy instructed his team to prepare for a possible face-to-face meeting with Putin. However, no direct meeting occurred.
Geneva talks among US, Ukraine, Russia focus on territory issues
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%1%
Trilateral talks in Geneva involving US, Ukraine, and Russia focused on territorial disputes but showed no breakthrough, with Russian officials dismissing progress. This sustained market skepticism about imminent direct meetings.
US-Ukraine-Russia trilateral talks held in Geneva focusing on territorial issues
Switzerland plunges to 1%50%
Trilateral talks took place in Geneva involving US, Ukraine, and Russia, focusing on territorial disputes. The meeting was a key diplomatic event but did not lead to a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, maintaining uncertainty about the venue.
Ukraine, US, and Russia hold trilateral talks in Geneva, Zelenskyy pushes for direct summit
Trilateral talks took place in Geneva with Ukraine, US, and Russia. Zelenskyy reiterated that a direct meeting with Putin was the best way to resolve territorial issues and instructed his delegation to propose such a summit. This kept hopes alive for a meeting but no confirmation followed.
US-hosted trilateral talks in Geneva focus on Ukraine conflict issues
Trilateral talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia took place in Geneva, addressing contentious issues like Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. While these talks involved high-level delegations, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred, maintaining market uncertainty about a direct summit.
Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks scheduled in Abu Dhabi
Qatar / UAE drops to 1%5%
Peace talks involving US, Ukraine, and Russia were set for early February in Abu Dhabi, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, maintaining market uncertainty.
Trilateral peace talks held in Geneva with no breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 79%9%
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US took place in Geneva but ended without agreement, with Russia rejecting key proposals. This reinforced doubts about imminent meetings, increasing the market's probability for no meeting before 2027.
US-led trilateral peace talks held in Geneva with tense but meaningful progress
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
The United States, Ukraine, and Russia held trilateral talks in Geneva focusing on territory and humanitarian issues. Zelenskyy described the talks as difficult, and Russia rejected some US-backed peace plans, indicating stalled progress and no immediate meeting between leaders.
US hosts Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Miami with Zelenskyy and Russian delegation
US rises to 25%3%
In February 2026, the US invited Ukraine and Russia for talks likely in Miami, focusing on territorial issues. This raised hopes for a meeting possibly in the US, temporarily increasing market interest in that outcome.
US, Ukraine, Russia hold trilateral peace talks in Geneva
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
Trilateral talks in Geneva showed some progress but no breakthrough, with Russia and Ukraine maintaining divergent positions, reducing the likelihood of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting soon.
US-Ukraine-Russia trilateral talks held in Geneva with no breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%4%
The trilateral meetings in Geneva involving US, Ukraine, and Russia failed to achieve a peace breakthrough, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov rejecting progress claims and dismissing the US-Ukraine peace plan. This reinforced market skepticism about imminent direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin.
US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva show limited progress and tense negotiations
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%4%
Meetings between US, Ukraine, and Russia in Geneva were described as tense with limited progress, and plans for trilateral talks involving Putin, Zelenskyy, and Trump remained uncertain. This contributed to the market's growing skepticism about a direct meeting before 2027.
US hosts Ukraine-Russia talks in Miami focusing on territory and ceasefire
No meeting before 2027 dips to 74%1%
The US invited Ukraine and Russia for talks in Miami, aiming to end the war by June 2026. However, Russian skepticism and lack of progress kept direct Zelenskyy-Putin meetings unlikely.
New round of US-brokered peace talks in Switzerland with low expectations
Switzerland dips to 1%2%
In mid-February 2026, a new round of peace talks was held in Switzerland involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US. Despite the talks, hopes for a breakthrough were low due to unresolved major hurdles, dampening market optimism for a meeting in Switzerland.
US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva focus on territory and humanitarian issues
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%2%
Bilateral talks held in Geneva involved Ukraine, Russia, and the US focusing on territorial disputes and humanitarian concerns, including prisoner exchanges. Despite some progress on humanitarian issues, the talks ended abruptly, indicating stalled negotiations and no immediate prospect of a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
US-hosted Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva focus on territory and ceasefire
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 75%5%
Diplomatic talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US took place in Geneva, focusing on territorial issues but failing to produce a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, maintaining market skepticism about a near-term meeting.
Zelenskyy reiterates call for direct talks with Putin in Geneva trilateral talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%2%
Zelenskyy stated that direct talks with Putin are the best way to settle territorial matters and instructed the Ukrainian delegation to propose a summit during ongoing trilateral talks in Geneva, signaling continued efforts to arrange a meeting.
Trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks held in Geneva with no breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 dips to 77%1%
The trilateral talks in Geneva focused on ceasefire, territory, and security guarantees but ended without agreement, reflecting ongoing stalemate and reducing chances of imminent face-to-face meeting between leaders.
Ukraine Suggests Zelenskyy-Putin Summit at Geneva Trilateral Talks
Switzerland rises to 3%2%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy instructed his delegation to propose a face-to-face summit with Vladimir Putin during trilateral talks in Geneva, briefly keeping diplomatic hopes alive.
Trilateral peace talks held in Geneva between US, Ukraine, and Russia
The US, Ukraine, and Russia held trilateral peace talks in Geneva focusing on territorial issues and ceasefire parameters. Despite some progress on military issues, political differences remained deep, and no breakthrough was achieved.
US-led Geneva talks on Ukraine peace focus on territory and security
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%2%
Trilateral talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia took place in Geneva focusing on territorial issues and security guarantees, but Russian officials expressed skepticism about progress, maintaining the impasse on direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin.
US-hosted trilateral talks in Geneva focus on territorial issues
Switzerland plunges to 1%50%
The United States hosted trilateral meetings in Geneva with Ukraine and Russia to discuss practical issues and possible solutions, including territory. While progress was limited and talks were tense, this was a significant diplomatic effort involving all parties, raising hopes for a future meeting.
US-brokered Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Geneva end with little progress
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 66%6%
The two-day US-mediated talks in Geneva concluded with Zelenskyy accusing Putin of stalling and Russia demanding territorial concessions Ukraine rejects. The lack of progress increased market skepticism about imminent meetings, pushing the "No meeting before 2027" price higher.
Geneva trilateral talks with Ukraine, Russia, and US advance negotiations but no meeting set
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%2%
Negotiations in Geneva included security advisers and Putin's aide, marking a new phase in talks. Despite progress, no agreement on a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting location or date was reached, sustaining market doubts about a meeting before 2027.
US hosts Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva focusing on territory and ceasefire
US plunges to 6%16%
In February 2026, the US hosted meetings with Ukraine and Russia in Geneva to discuss territorial issues and peace proposals, including a potential ceasefire. Despite these talks, skepticism from Russia and lack of progress kept market expectations low for a meeting in the US or neutral venues.
Geneva peace talks between US, Ukraine, and Russia begin amid tensions
In February 2026, Geneva hosted peace talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia, focusing on territorial issues. Despite some progress claims, talks were tense and did not lead to a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, tempering market optimism.
Zelenskyy urges Putin for direct talks during Geneva trilateral talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%5%
Zelenskyy publicly reiterated that a face-to-face meeting with Putin is the best way to resolve territorial issues, instructing his delegation to propose a summit during trilateral talks in Geneva. This raised market hopes for a meeting but venue disagreements persisted.
Russian attacks on Ukraine continue amid peace talks in UAE
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine occurred simultaneously with ongoing peace talks in Abu Dhabi involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US, undermining prospects for a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin and increasing market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy announces upcoming US-hosted talks with Russia focused on territory
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Zelenskyy stated that new peace talks involving the US would start mid-February 2026, focusing on territorial issues. This raised hopes for progress but did not specify a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, keeping market uncertainty high.
Geneva trilateral talks slated to begin 17‑18 Feb, says Zelenskyy
Switzerland plunges to 3%48%
Zelenskyy confirmed that trilateral talks in Geneva would start on 17‑18 February, prompting a modest rise in the “Switzerland” odds as the venue appeared plausible.
US hosts Ukraine-Russia talks in Miami aiming for June peace deal
US plunges to 5%17%
The US invited Ukraine and Russia for talks in Miami focusing on territorial issues, raising hopes for a meeting but with no direct Zelenskyy-Putin encounter confirmed. This increased interest in the US as a potential meeting venue.
Lukashenka and Putin discuss Union State agenda in phone call
Belarus plunges to 1%46%
Lukashenka’s phone call with Putin discussed the upcoming Union State council meeting, hinting that a Belarus‑Russia venue might host the next high‑level talks. The market responded by moving the “Belarus” probability sharply lower, from around 47 % to 1 %.
Zelenskyy announces US-led talks with Russia and Ukraine aiming for June peace deal
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 81%11%
Zelenskyy stated that the US wanted to reach an agreement to end the war by June 2026 and confirmed Ukraine's participation in talks likely held in Miami. This raised hopes for progress but did not specify a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, influencing market expectations.
Zelenskyy says U.S. invited Ukraine and Russia to Miami talks
US dips to 2%1%
Zelenskyy announced the U.S. had invited Ukraine and Russia for talks in the United States (likely Miami), shifting some market weight toward the US option before it fell back to low levels.
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure threaten peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
Russia agreed to halt strikes on Kyiv's energy infrastructure at Trump's request, but ongoing attacks and mutual refusals to meet in person kept peace talks fragile and the prospect of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting distant.
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid threaten peace talks
Russia launched attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure just before trilateral talks, casting doubt on Moscow’s sincerity and reducing market confidence in imminent meetings, especially in Russia or Belarus.
Trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi postponed amid ongoing tensions
Qatar / UAE plunges to 1%48%
Scheduled trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi were postponed, reflecting stalled negotiations and continued rejection of direct meetings by both Putin and Zelenskyy, reducing chances of a near-term meeting in Qatar/UAE.
Trilateral peace talks scheduled in Abu Dhabi involving US, Ukraine, Russia
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%2%
In early February 2026, trilateral meetings were set for Abu Dhabi to continue peace talks, signaling ongoing indirect negotiations but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. This maintained market skepticism about a direct meeting soon.
Putin and Zelenskyy Reject Offers to Meet in Person
Belarus dips to 1%1%
Reports confirmed that both leaders rejected proposals for an in-person meeting, with Putin pushing for Russia or Belarus and Zelenskyy insisting on Ukraine.
Russia halts Kyiv strikes until Feb 1 ahead of trilateral talks
Belarus plunges to 1%46%
A Russian strike postponement ahead of the Geneva talks hinted at a possible Russian‑hosted venue, nudging the “Belarus” odds upward briefly.
Putin and Zelensky reject in-person meeting offers; Putin suggests Russia or Belarus as venue
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%1%
Both leaders rejected offers to meet in person, with Putin proposing Russia or Belarus as meeting locations, which Zelenskyy declined, further diminishing prospects of a direct meeting before 2027.
Russia halts strikes on Kyiv at Trump's request amid peace talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%3%
Russian President Putin agreed to halt strikes on Kyiv until February 1 at the personal request of US President Trump, reflecting US influence in peace negotiations and raising hopes for direct talks between Putin and Zelenskyy.
Trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi postponed amid energy strikes and tensions
Scheduled trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi were postponed due to ongoing Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and geopolitical tensions. Both Putin and Zelenskyy rejected offers to meet in person, maintaining the status quo and increasing market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Putin agrees to halt Kyiv strikes after Trump’s request, but both leaders still refuse in‑person talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%9%
Russia halted strikes on Kyiv after a personal request by Trump, but both leaders still declined a face‑to‑face meeting, confirming the stalemate and contributing to the market’s shift toward “No meeting”.
Putin and Zelenskyy reject in-person meeting offers; venue proposals discussed
No meeting before 2027 dips to 77%3%
During trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, both leaders rejected offers to meet in person. Putin suggested Russia or Belarus as possible hosts, while Zelenskyy invited Putin to Ukraine. This stalemate contributed to market skepticism about a direct meeting before 2027.
Ukraine shifts approach to peace talks amid Russian attacks
Qatar / UAE dips to 3%2%
In early February 2026, Zelenskyy indicated a shift in Ukraine's approach to peace talks in the Emirates following heavy Russian bombardment. This development did not lead to a direct meeting with Putin, contributing to low market prices for meetings in Qatar/UAE and other locations.
Putin says any Zelensky‑Putin meeting could only be in Russia or Belarus
Turkey plunges to 3%26%
Putin’s public suggestion that any meeting could only be held in Russia or Belarus, coupled with Zelensky’s invitation to Kyiv, led markets to view meetings in Qatar/UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Turkey as highly unlikely, pushing all those outcomes to 1 %‑2 % levels.
Putin and Zelenskyy reject personal meeting, suggest Belarus or Russia as host
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%7%
Foreign Policy reported that both leaders rejected a face‑to‑face meeting, with Putin preferring Russia or Belarus as a venue and Zelenskyy inviting Ukraine. The discussion of possible host countries (Belarus, Russia) further drove the market away from Belarus and China, reinforcing the “No meeting” trend.
Russia launches energy strikes amid trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%3%
During trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi, Russia launched massive attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid, undermining trust and sincerity in peace efforts. Both Putin and Zelenskyy rejected offers to meet in person, with Putin suggesting Russia or Belarus as hosts and Zelenskyy inviting Ukraine. This event decreased chances of a meeting in Turkey, Qatar/UAE, Belarus, or Russia, boosting 'No meeting before 2027' odds.
Putin and Zelenskyy reject offers to meet in person; venue disputes continue
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%4%
Both leaders rejected offers to meet in person, with Putin suggesting Russia or Belarus and Zelenskyy inviting Putin to Ukraine. Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure threatened peace talks, further reducing chances of a meeting before 2027.
Trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi postponed amid ongoing tensions
Scheduled trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi were postponed, with both Putin and Zelensky rejecting offers to meet in person. Putin suggested Russia or Belarus as hosts, but Zelenskyy insisted on any country except Russia or Belarus, maintaining the deadlock and reducing chances of a meeting in those locations.
Trilateral peace talks postponed amid ongoing Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy
No meeting before 2027 rises to 80%2%
Trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US were postponed amid Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, with both Putin and Zelenskyy rejecting in-person meetings for now, suggesting Belarus or Ukraine as possible venues respectively.
Russia proposes Moscow or Belarus for talks; Zelenskyy rejects these venues
Belarus dips to 1%1%
Russia suggested Moscow or Belarus as venues for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, but Zelenskyy rejected these options, further diminishing the likelihood of meetings in these locations and pushing market prices down for those outcomes.
Trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi postponed
Peace talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US were scheduled in Abu Dhabi but postponed, reflecting ongoing difficulties in arranging direct negotiations and contributing to market skepticism about a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting soon.
Putin agrees to pause strikes on Kyiv until Feb 1, 2026
No meeting before 2027 rises to 81%3%
Russia’s abrupt halt to Kyiv attacks until Feb 1 2026, announced by Trump, was reported as a de‑escalation step but did not include a Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting, further cementing the market’s shift toward “No meeting before 2027” (price climbed to 81 % by 2026‑04‑14).
US-led trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi with Russia and Ukraine
The US, Russia, and Ukraine held trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi aiming to advance peace negotiations. Despite a constructive atmosphere, major obstacles remained, and no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Putin signals willingness to meet Zelenskyy abroad after a lasting deal
No meeting before 2027 dips to 74%4%
During a press conference in Saint Petersburg, Putin said Russia would be ready to meet Zelenskyy in a third country once a “lasting” deal was reached. The optimistic tone pulled the “No meeting before 2027” price down briefly (from 78 % to 74 %) before it rebounded.
Abu Dhabi set as next venue for Ukraine‑Russia talks, but leaders remain divided
Qatar / UAE plunges to 3%46%
Reports that the next round of talks would be staged in Abu Dhabi (UAE) and that Putin preferred Belarus while Zelensky pressed for Ukraine shifted expectations toward a Middle‑East venue, but subsequent refusals led the market to slash the Qatar/UAE probability from ~50 % to the low single digits.
Russian strikes threaten trilateral peace talks in Geneva
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure complicated ongoing trilateral peace talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia in Geneva, with both Putin and Zelensky rejecting in-person meetings and suggesting different locations, increasing doubts about a direct meeting.
Ukraine, US and Russia set to meet in Abu Dhabi on Feb 4‑5
Qatar / UAE rises to 2%2%
A trilateral meeting of Ukraine, the United States and Russia was scheduled for Abu Dhabi (UAE) on Feb 4‑5 2026. The announcement raised the probability of a meeting taking place in the “Qatar / UAE” region, briefly lifting that outcome from 0 % to 2 % before the market again reverted as the talks were postponed.
Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid threaten peace talks
Russia launched attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure just before trilateral peace talks, casting doubt on Moscow's sincerity and reducing optimism for a meeting in neutral locations like Switzerland or Qatar/UAE. This contributed to the decline in prices for those meeting locations.
Russian strikes on Ukraine energy threaten trilateral peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%2%
Russia launched attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure during ongoing trilateral talks, undermining trust and reducing chances of a direct meeting. Both Putin and Zelenskyy rejected offers to meet in person, with Putin suggesting Russia or Belarus as hosts and Zelenskyy inviting Ukraine.
Putin agrees to halt Kyiv strikes for a week at Trump’s request
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%1%
Putin announced a temporary halt to strikes on Kyiv until Feb 1, after a request from Trump. The pause was presented as a goodwill gesture but did not include any commitment to a face‑to‑face meeting, reinforcing market confidence in the “No meeting” outcome (price remained above 70 %).
Trilateral Ukraine-Russia-US talks in Abu Dhabi end constructively but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 75%5%
Diplomatic talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US concluded with constructive discussions on ending the war but no agreement on a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. The talks raised hopes for future negotiations but maintained the status quo, reinforcing market confidence in 'No meeting before 2027'.
Putin says he will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow
Russia plunges to 1%43%
During a direct‑line broadcast, Putin reiterated he would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, eliminating other possible venues (Turkey, Qatar/UAE, etc.). This reinforced the market’s shift toward “No meeting” and kept the Russia probability near its lows.
Next round of trilateral talks scheduled in Abu Dhabi amid ongoing negotiations
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%1%
The US, Ukraine, and Russia planned another round of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi to continue peace negotiations. While progress was noted, no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy was arranged, sustaining market confidence in 'No meeting before 2027'.
Kremlin insists Zelenskyy-Putin meeting only in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
In early February 2026, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Russia would only consider Moscow as the venue for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, rejecting other locations. Zelenskyy had publicly refused to travel to Moscow or Belarus, reinforcing the deadlock and market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy announces new trilateral peace talks with US and Russia in UAE
Qatar / UAE rises to 7%2%
Zelenskyy confirmed plans for new trilateral talks with the US and Russia in the United Arab Emirates, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the war. This raised hopes for progress but did not directly involve a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, causing minor market impact on meeting location probabilities.
US-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi described as constructive but no breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%6%
Ukraine, Russia, and the US held trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi, which Zelenskyy called 'constructive.' Despite progress on some issues, key sticking points like territorial concessions and peacekeepers remain unresolved, maintaining market skepticism about imminent meetings.
Zelenskyy rejects Kremlin's proposal to meet Putin in Moscow, invites him to Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%8%
Zelenskyy publicly rejected the Kremlin's invitation to meet Putin in Moscow, stating it was impossible and instead invited Putin to Kyiv. This hardened stance reduced the likelihood of a meeting in Russia or Belarus, impacting market expectations.
Zelensky invites Putin to Kyiv; Kremlin says Putin received the request
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 81%6%
Zelensky publicly invited Putin to Kyiv; the Kremlin confirmed the request was received. The invitation, combined with Putin’s refusal to meet in Kyiv, kept expectations low for a near‑term meeting, reinforcing the “No meeting” trend.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, Kremlin confirms Putin's agreement to proposal
Qatar / UAE dips to 2%1%
Zelenskyy publicly invited Putin to Kyiv for talks, stating 'if he dares'. The Kremlin confirmed Putin had received the request and 'of course' agreed to the proposal, though no meeting date was set. This was a significant diplomatic move but did not lead to a confirmed meeting.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, rejects meeting in Moscow
Russia dips to 1%1%
Zelenskyy publicly invited Putin to Kyiv for talks, stating he would not meet in Moscow or Belarus and emphasizing the importance of a neutral venue. This invitation was a key development but did not lead to a confirmed meeting, impacting market prices by lowering chances of a meeting in Russia and Switzerland.
Zelenskyy says meeting in Belarus is ‘impossible’, insists on neutral venue
Belarus plunges to 1%46%
Zelenskyy publicly refused to travel to Moscow or Belarus for a face‑to‑face meeting, insisting any summit must be on neutral ground. The rejection of Belarus as a venue sharply lowered the market’s belief that the next meeting would occur there, pushing the Belarus outcome from double‑digits to near‑zero.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv; Kremlin says Putin received request
Belarus plunges to 1%46%
Zelenskyy invited Putin to Kyiv, but the Kremlin said Putin had 'of course' agreed to the proposal, temporarily raising the “Belarus” and “Russia” odds before they fell back to ~1 % as the market concluded the invitation was unlikely to be accepted.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, rejects Moscow and Belarus venues
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%9%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy invited Russian President Putin to Kyiv for talks, stating he would not meet in Moscow or Belarus, which Putin had suggested, signaling a stalemate on meeting location and reducing chances of a meeting in Belarus or Russia-controlled territory, reinforcing market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Putin says he will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 drops to 1%8%
Putin publicly stated he would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow, narrowing the venue options and causing the “US” and “Switzerland” odds to collapse as those locations became less likely.
Zelenskyy rejects Putin's suggestion to meet in Moscow, doubles down on 2027 EU accession target
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 65%14%
Zelenskyy publicly stated it was impossible to meet Putin in Moscow and reaffirmed Ukraine's EU accession goal for 2027, signaling a firm stance against Putin's proposals and reducing the likelihood of a meeting in Russia or any immediate talks. This caused a sharp drop in the Russia meeting probability and a rise in 'No meeting before 2027'.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for talks but rules out meeting in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 dips to 71%1%
Zelenskyy publicly invited Putin to Kyiv for talks but stated meeting in Moscow was impossible, reflecting ongoing diplomatic stalemate and reinforcing market belief that no meeting would occur soon.
Kremlin invites Zelenskyy to Moscow for peace talks; Zelenskyy rejects meeting in Russia
Russia plunges to 1%43%
The Kremlin confirmed Putin's readiness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow only to finalize agreements, but Zelenskyy ruled out meeting in Russia or Belarus, complicating prospects for a meeting and reducing Russia's market probability.
Zelenskyy invites Putin to Kyiv for talks, Kremlin confirms receipt
No meeting before 2027 dips to 76%2%
Zelenskyy publicly invited Putin to Kyiv for talks, which Kremlin spokesman Peskov confirmed Putin had received and agreed to consider. Zelenskyy ruled out meeting in Moscow, signaling ongoing venue disagreements and uncertainty about a meeting.
Kremlin states Moscow is only venue for Putin-Zelensky meeting
Russia plunges to 8%36%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declared that Moscow is the sole location under discussion for a potential Putin-Zelensky summit, emphasizing Russia's position and impacting market confidence in meetings elsewhere.
Zelenskyy rejects Kremlin's proposal to meet Putin in Moscow, invites him to Kyiv
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%9%
Zelenskyy publicly refused to meet Putin in Moscow, citing ongoing hostilities, and instead invited Putin to Kyiv. This hardened stance diminished chances of a meeting in Russia or Belarus, reducing market confidence in those locations.
Kremlin reiterates invitation for Zelenskyy to Moscow for peace talks
Russia dips to 1%1%
Russia renewed its invitation for Zelenskyy to come to Moscow, but Zelenskyy refused, stating he would not meet Putin in Moscow and preferred neutral territory, reducing chances of a meeting in Russia and lowering related market prices.
Kremlin reiterates invitation for Zelenskyy to Moscow for peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%3%
Russia officially invited Zelenskyy to Moscow for talks, but Zelenskyy rejected meeting in Moscow, calling it impossible and suggesting Putin come to Kyiv instead. This stalemate diminished chances of a meeting in Russia and increased uncertainty overall.
Kremlin invites Zelenskyy to Moscow for peace talks; Zelenskyy rejects meeting in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 rises to 68%3%
The Kremlin confirmed Putin received Zelenskyy's invitation to talks, but Zelenskyy stated it was impossible to meet in Moscow and suggested Putin come to Kyiv instead. This exchange highlighted the impasse over meeting location, reducing chances of a direct meeting in Russia or Ukraine and increasing the likelihood of no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy urges compromise as peace talks begin in Abu Dhabi
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%6%
In late January 2026, Zelenskyy emphasized the need for compromises from all sides during trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia. Despite these talks, it remained unclear if Zelenskyy and Putin would meet face-to-face, sustaining market skepticism about a meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy rejects Putin's Moscow invitation, invites Putin to Kyiv instead
No meeting before 2027 rises to 76%2%
Zelenskyy publicly rejected the Kremlin's proposal to meet in Moscow, stating it was impossible for him to meet Putin there and inviting Putin to Kyiv instead. This stance maintained the impasse on meeting location, reinforcing market skepticism about a near-term meeting and boosting 'No meeting before 2027' odds.
US-mediated Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi show progress but no breakthrough
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 79%12%
Negotiations mediated by the US in Abu Dhabi involved Ukraine and Russia discussing key issues including territorial matters and ceasefire parameters. Zelenskyy expressed readiness to meet Putin personally to resolve sensitive issues, but no meeting was scheduled, maintaining market skepticism about near-term talks.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, refuses Moscow or Belarus
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 70%6%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv 'if he dares,' while firmly rejecting meetings in Moscow or Belarus, labeling Russia as aggressor and Belarus as partner in war. This hardened positions and reduced market confidence in meetings in Russia or Belarus.
US-mediated trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi with progress reported
No meeting before 2027 rises to 72%4%
Russia, Ukraine, and US delegations met in Abu Dhabi for two days of peace talks, marking the first such US-mediated meeting since the war escalated. Officials reported progress and expressed optimism about a future Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, though no direct meeting occurred yet, supporting market confidence in 'No meeting before 2027'.
Ukraine, Russia, and US hold trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi
No meeting before 2027 rises to 71%4%
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US took place in Abu Dhabi in January 2026, focusing on territorial disputes and security guarantees. Despite some progress, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred, and Russia maintained its territorial demands, limiting prospects for a summit.
Trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi with US, Russia, Ukraine
Qatar / UAE rises to 3%1%
The first trilateral talks involving US, Russia, and Ukraine took place in Abu Dhabi, described as 'productive' but without a breakthrough. The event highlighted the complexity of negotiations and the absence of a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
First trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi with territorial issues key
No meeting before 2027 rises to 68%4%
On January 23-24, 2026, US, Ukraine, and Russia held their first trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi focusing on territorial disputes. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy called the talks constructive, but no breakthrough was achieved. The talks raised hopes for future meetings but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was arranged.
First trilateral peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and US held in Abu Dhabi
No meeting before 2027 rises to 77%1%
Russian, Ukrainian, and US delegations met in Abu Dhabi for the first trilateral talks since the war began. Discussions focused on territorial issues, with no compromise reached. Zelenskyy emphasized the need for Russia to be ready to end the war. The talks were described as constructive but inconclusive.
US-mediated trilateral talks held in Abu Dhabi with Russia and Ukraine
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%9%
Russian, Ukrainian, and US delegations met in Abu Dhabi for trilateral talks, marking progress but no breakthrough. Officials indicated Zelenskyy and Putin were close to arranging a direct meeting, but it did not materialize, keeping market confidence low for a meeting before 2027.
Orban criticizes Zelenskyy ahead of Hungarian elections, straining ties
Hungary drops to 1%7%
Orban publicly rebuked Zelenskyy, calling him desperate and refusing to support Ukraine's war efforts, worsening bilateral relations and reducing the likelihood of a meeting in Hungary, reflected in the drop of Hungary meeting odds.
US-mediated trilateral talks held in Abu Dhabi with Ukraine and Russia
Qatar / UAE plunges to 2%47%
Ukraine, Russia, and US negotiators met in Abu Dhabi for the first trilateral talks since the war began, with officials reporting progress but no breakthrough or direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, which maintained low market prices for UAE/Qatar and Saudi Arabia venues.
Trump hosts World Economic Forum meeting highlighting peace efforts
At the Davos Forum, Trump emphasized ongoing diplomatic efforts and security guarantees for Ukraine, signaling continued US involvement in peace talks. However, Russia remained distant from draft terms, maintaining a hardline stance, which dampened prospects for a near-term meeting.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet at Davos, announce US-Russia-Ukraine talks in UAE
Qatar / UAE rises to 50%1%
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Zelenskyy met Trump and announced trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine to be held in the UAE, raising hopes for diplomatic progress and a possible meeting venue outside Russia.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at Davos, discusses stalled peace talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 75%5%
Zelenskyy and Trump met in Davos, Switzerland, to discuss ongoing peace negotiations. Zelenskyy announced agreement on US-backed security guarantees but noted Russia must be ready for compromises. The meeting underscored continued diplomatic efforts but no direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting was arranged, reinforcing market doubts about a near-term summit.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at World Economic Forum as US envoys meet Putin in Moscow
Switzerland plunges to 1%50%
Zelenskyy met Trump in Davos to discuss peace proposals while US envoys held talks with Putin in Moscow. This dual diplomacy raised hopes for progress but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was arranged, impacting market prices for Switzerland and Turkey.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet at World Economic Forum in Davos
Switzerland rises to 2%1%
Zelenskyy met Trump in Davos to discuss the peace plan, with Trump acknowledging an 'abnormal hatred' between Zelenskyy and Putin as a barrier. The meeting underscored ongoing challenges and the need for further negotiations.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine readying for US‑Russia peace talks in UAE on Feb 4‑5
Qatar / UAE plunges to 5%44%
Zelenskyy told Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos that Ukraine was preparing for new trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates on 4‑5 Feb. The announcement shifted market odds toward a meeting in the UAE and away from other venues.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet in Davos amid intensified US-led peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 76%2%
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Zelenskyy met Trump to discuss security guarantees and peace talks progress. US envoys were preparing for talks with Putin in Moscow. Territorial disputes remained the main obstacle to a deal, with Zelenskyy emphasizing unresolved issues.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at Davos, criticizes Europe, discusses peace talks
Switzerland jumps to 6%5%
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Zelenskyy met Trump and criticized European inaction while highlighting progress on US security guarantees. US envoys planned meetings with Putin in Moscow, and trilateral talks were scheduled in Abu Dhabi, indicating ongoing diplomatic momentum but no direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting yet.
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if peace talks fail
No meeting before 2027 rises to 79%1%
Russian President Putin publicly warned that Russia would seek to extend its territorial gains in Ukraine if peace talks fail, signaling hardened positions and reducing likelihood of a direct meeting with Zelenskyy, which influenced market prices downward for meeting locations and upward for no meeting.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at Davos amid ongoing peace efforts
No meeting before 2027 rises to 67%4%
Trump and Zelenskyy met at the World Economic Forum in Davos, expressing optimism about peace talks. Trump invited Putin to join a peace board, and US envoys planned talks with Putin in Moscow, but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting was arranged, reinforcing market doubts about a near-term meeting.
Putin says Russia studying peace board proposal after Trump accepts invite
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%14%
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Putin said Russia was studying a U.S.‑backed peace board proposal after Trump announced he had accepted an invitation to meet. The statement reinforced expectations that any direct meeting would be deferred, lifting the “No meeting before 2027” probability (70 % → 84 % on 2026‑01‑21).
Trump and Zelenskyy to meet at Davos; US envoys to meet Putin in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 rises to 78%4%
President Trump announced a meeting with Zelenskyy at the World Economic Forum in Davos and sent envoys to meet Putin in Moscow, signaling continued US mediation efforts. Despite these diplomatic moves, no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy was arranged, maintaining market expectations of no meeting before 2027.
Turkey offers to host trilateral summit, but both leaders balk at venue
Turkey plunges to 3%26%
After a series of talks in the region, Turkish officials announced they would host a trilateral summit only if both sides agreed. Putin’s insistence on a Russian or Belarusian venue and Zelenskyy’s refusal to travel to Turkey caused the market to cut the Turkey probability sharply.
Trump claims Zelenskyy is holding up Ukraine peace deal
No meeting before 2027 rises to 75%3%
US President Trump publicly stated that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, not Putin, was delaying a peace deal, contrasting with European views. This statement reflected ongoing political complexities and reduced market confidence in a near-term Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Trump hosts Board of Peace signing ceremony in Davos with Putin invited
The US hosted a Board of Peace signing ceremony in Davos, inviting Russia and other countries, including those in the Middle East, to participate in peace efforts. This diplomatic initiative raised hopes but did not lead to a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, affecting market prices for meeting locations.
Putin holds top‑military briefing in Paris as Zelenskyy tours Europe
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 78%10%
Paris talks (Jan 6‑7) produced no breakthrough and Russian officials emphasized holding the strategic initiative, while Zelenskyy was travelling across Europe. The lack of a concrete Putin‑Zelenskyy encounter caused a further swing toward the “No meeting” outcome and depressed all venue options.
Kremlin aide praises Trump's peace efforts after Zelenskyy meeting and Putin call
No meeting before 2027 rises to 82%2%
Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev praised Trump's peace efforts following the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting and a phone call between Trump and Putin, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. This reinforced market confidence in no meeting before 2027.
Peace talks continue in Paris with no breakthrough as Putin remains distant from draft terms
No meeting before 2027 rises to 68%2%
Negotiations in Paris involved U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian envoys but Putin's position remained distant from the draft peace terms, indicating ongoing stalemate and no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Trilateral peace talks held in Paris with no direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 66%2%
US-mediated talks in Paris involved Russian and Ukrainian envoys but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. The talks aimed to finalize peace terms but highlighted ongoing divisions, reinforcing market doubts about a direct meeting before 2027.
Ukraine allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in peace plan talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 75%1%
European allies, including France and the UK, agreed on security guarantees for Ukraine as part of peace plan discussions, but Russia maintained maximalist demands, limiting prospects for a direct meeting between leaders.
US-mediated talks held in Paris with Russian and Ukrainian officials
No meeting before 2027 rises to 67%1%
Diplomatic talks continued in Paris involving US mediation, but Kremlin's position remained distant from draft peace terms, maintaining market skepticism about imminent direct meetings between leaders.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Florida to discuss Ukraine security guarantees
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 80%13%
Zelenskyy met with Trump in Florida to discuss security guarantees and peace proposals, signaling progress in US-led diplomacy but no direct meeting with Putin. This meeting increased optimism for peace but did not raise chances of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in the US or elsewhere.
Putin expresses dissatisfaction with Trump call, cites drone attack to harden stance
No meeting before 2027 rises to 56%2%
Putin was reportedly unsatisfied with a call with Trump before Zelenskyy's arrival, citing a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence to justify a tougher peace negotiation stance, dampening hopes for a near-term meeting.
Russian official alleges Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%5%
Russia claimed Ukraine launched a drone attack on Putin's residence, which Zelenskyy dismissed as disinformation. This escalated tensions and hardened Russia's negotiating stance, reducing chances of a meeting in Russia or Belarus and lowering related market prices.
Putin reportedly stalling on nearly complete peace deal after drone attack claim
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Putin took a tougher stance in peace talks citing a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence, dampening hopes for imminent direct talks and contributing to the decline in market prices for Russia and related meeting locations.
Putin reportedly dissatisfied with Trump call, claims Ukrainian drone attack
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Putin expressed dissatisfaction with a call with Trump and cited a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence to justify a tougher stance, stalling peace talks and reducing market confidence in a meeting in Russia or elsewhere.
Putin and Trump hold friendly phone call after Zelenskyy‑Trump meeting
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 73%14%
Putin spoke with Trump on the phone after Zelenskyy’s Mar‑a‑Lago meeting. The call was described as “friendly, benevolent and businesslike” and reinforced the perception that a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin encounter was not imminent, contributing to the steady rise of the “No meeting” price in the days that followed.
Putin talks to Trump, cites Ukrainian drone attack on Valdai residence
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 79%8%
Putin’s phone call with Trump after the Mar‑a‑Lago meeting, coupled with a reported Ukrainian drone strike on Putin’s Valdai residence, hardened Russia’s stance. The news reinforced expectations that a direct Zelensky‑Putin meeting would not occur, further boosting the “No meeting” probability.
Putin expresses dissatisfaction with Trump call, claims Ukrainian drone attack
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Putin was reportedly not fully satisfied with his call with Trump before Zelenskyy's arrival, citing a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence as justification for a tougher stance. This hardened Russia's position, reducing chances of a direct meeting and lowering market confidence in a Russia meeting.
Putin claims Ukrainian drone attack justifies tougher peace stance
No meeting before 2027 dips to 60%3%
Putin cited a drone attack on his residence as reason to harden his position in peace talks, stalling progress and reducing market confidence in a meeting in Russia or elsewhere soon.
Putin phone call with Trump before Zelenskyy meeting shows dissatisfaction
Putin had a phone conversation with Trump before Zelenskyy arrived at Mar-a-Lago but was reportedly not entirely satisfied with the call, despite exchanged compliments. This indicated Putin's reluctance to fully engage in peace talks, contributing to stalled progress and market skepticism about a meeting.
Putin reportedly stalling on nearly complete peace deal after drone attack claim
No meeting before 2027 plunges to 59%16%
Following a phone call with Trump, Putin claimed a Ukrainian drone attack on his residence justified a tougher stance, stalling peace talks despite claims the deal was 90% complete. This increased skepticism about a near-term meeting in Russia or elsewhere.
Putin expresses tougher stance after drone attack near residence
No meeting before 2027 drops to 62%5%
Following a drone attack near Putin's Valdai residence, he adopted a tougher line in peace talks, stalling progress despite diplomatic efforts. This increased market skepticism about imminent direct meetings between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Trump and Zelenskyy express optimism about nearing peace deal after Mar-a-Lago meeting
US plunges to 7%15%
Following a meeting at Mar-a-Lago, US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed optimism about a potential peace deal to end the war. This raised market hopes for a meeting involving the US as a venue or mediator, temporarily increasing the US option's probability before it declined due to lack of follow-up progress.
Trump and Zelenskyy suggest peace deal could be close after cordial meeting
No meeting before 2027 rises to 71%1%
Following a more cordial meeting, Trump and Zelenskyy expressed optimism about concluding a peace deal soon, but no direct meeting with Putin occurred. This maintained market expectations that a face-to-face meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was unlikely before 2027.
Trump and Zelenskyy suggest peace deal could be close after Mar-a-Lago meeting
Trump and Zelenskyy emerged from talks at Mar-a-Lago expressing optimism that a peace deal was imminent, boosting confidence in a resolution involving US-mediated negotiations.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at Mar-a-Lago, express optimism on peace deal
No meeting before 2027 surges to 75%16%
The two leaders met for over two hours, with Trump stating Putin wants peace and talks are in final stages. Despite optimism, Putin's direct involvement remained uncertain, and no meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin occurred, tempering expectations.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at Mar-a-Lago for peace talks amid renewed diplomatic push
The high-profile lunch meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago followed a flurry of US, Russian, and Ukrainian talks, signaling renewed diplomatic momentum for a potential peace deal.
Trump meets Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago to discuss Ukraine peace plan
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 30%8%
Zelenskyy met with former President Trump in Florida to discuss economic, security, and territorial issues related to Ukraine, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting with Putin. This meeting raised hopes for progress but did not lead to a Zelenskyy-Putin encounter, impacting market prices by lowering chances of a meeting in the US and increasing 'No meeting before 2027'.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago, signals progress toward peace talks
US drops to 9%13%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with US President Donald Trump in Florida, expressing optimism about nearing a peace deal and discussing a potential trilateral meeting including Putin. This raised hopes for a direct meeting, boosting market confidence in a meeting but not specifying location.
Trump and Zelenskyy express optimism about nearing peace deal after Florida talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 65%6%
Following their meeting, Trump and Zelenskyy suggested the peace deal was in final stages, boosting short-term optimism for diplomatic progress but not specifying a meeting location for Zelenskyy and Putin.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Florida, optimism for peace deal
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 70%5%
Zelenskyy and Trump held a cordial meeting at Mar-a-Lago, expressing optimism about a peace deal nearing completion. Trump indicated he would call Putin again, but Putin's willingness remained uncertain, keeping the market cautious about a meeting venue.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago amid peace talks with Putin
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met US President Trump in Florida to discuss a peace plan, with Trump subsequently calling Putin. This high-profile meeting raised hopes for a peace deal but did not result in a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting. The market saw increased confidence in a meeting but no specific location was confirmed.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet in Florida, express optimism on peace deal progress
No meeting before 2027 surges to 77%18%
The meeting at Mar-a-Lago was described as productive and optimistic about nearing a peace deal, but Putin remained distant, and no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged, affecting market prices for US and No meeting outcomes.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago, optimistic about peace deal progress
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 64%5%
On December 28, 2025, US President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago, expressing optimism that peace talks with Russia were nearing a deal. Trump also spoke with Putin before and after the meeting, signaling US efforts to mediate the conflict. This raised market hopes for a meeting but did not result in a direct Zelenskyy-Putin encounter.
Trump says Putin ‘serious’ after Mar‑a‑Lago talks with Zelenskyy
No meeting before 2027 surges to 82%15%
After a joint press conference in Florida, Trump claimed Putin was “serious” about peace, but no personal meeting was arranged. The absence of a concrete rendez‑vous led the market to further favour the “No meeting” outcome.
Trump hosts Zelensky at Mar‑a‑Lago, says Putin “serious” but no direct meeting scheduled
No meeting before 2027 surges to 75%16%
Trump and Zelensky met at Mar‑a‑Lago; Trump said Putin was “serious” but no direct meeting was arranged. The lack of a three‑way summit caused traders to push the probability of any Zelensky‑Putin meeting down, driving the “No meeting before 2027” price up sharply.
Trump meets Zelenskyy at Mar‑a‑Lago, pitches Putin call as next step
US plunges to 5%17%
Trump hosted Zelenskyy at Mar‑a‑Lago and announced an extensive phone call with Putin that preceded the meeting. Because the encounter involved only the U.S. and Ukraine, the market’s US probability collapsed (22 % → 5 % on 2025‑12‑28) while the “No meeting” line rose as a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting looked increasingly remote.
Trump and Putin hold productive call ahead of Zelenskyy peace talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 76%11%
On December 28, 2025, former US President Donald Trump announced a productive phone call with Putin just before his meeting with Zelenskyy. This set the stage for critical peace talks, but no immediate breakthrough on meeting location occurred, maintaining uncertainty and supporting the market's high probability for no meeting before 2027.
Zelenskyy meets Trump at Mar-a-Lago, signals peace deal could be close
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%4%
Zelenskyy and Trump held a lengthy meeting in Florida, expressing optimism about a peace deal, but Putin remained noncommittal. This raised hopes for a summit but did not specify a meeting location, causing a slight market shift away from some venues.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet in Florida, express optimism about peace deal
US plunges to 3%19%
Trump met Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago and claimed progress toward a peace deal, with a two-hour call with Putin beforehand. This raised hopes for a meeting but did not include Putin-Zelenskyy direct talks, causing a drop in the US and Switzerland meeting probabilities.
Putin and Trump hold lengthy phone call before Zelenskyy meeting
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
Before Zelenskyy arrived, Trump spoke with Putin for over an hour, discussing peace talks. Putin expressed interest in peace but remained distant from agreement terms, contributing to market skepticism about a direct meeting.
Zelenskyy meets Trump in Florida amid push for Ukraine peace deal
US plunges to 2%20%
Zelenskyy met with US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss a 20-point peace plan and security guarantees. Trump expressed optimism about nearing a peace deal, but key territorial issues remained unresolved, affecting market confidence in US as meeting location.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet at Mar-a-Lago, express optimism on peace deal
US dips to 2%3%
Trump and Zelenskyy held a two-hour meeting at Mar-a-Lago, with Trump stating talks were in final stages and planning to call Putin. Despite optimism, no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin was arranged, and the market shifted away from US as meeting location.
Trump meets Zelenskyy in Florida, discusses potential trilateral meeting with Putin
US plunges to 6%16%
Trump and Zelenskyy held talks in Florida where Trump suggested a trilateral meeting with Putin could happen at the right time, briefly raising hopes for a meeting involving all three leaders. However, no concrete plans materialized, and market prices for US and other locations remained low.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet in Florida, express optimism on peace deal
Trump and Zelenskyy held a face-to-face meeting, with Trump stating Russia and Ukraine were 'closer than ever' to a peace deal. This raised hopes for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, though no direct meeting was arranged yet.
Trump, Zelenskyy hail progress towards Russia‑Ukraine peace deal
US plunges to 2%20%
Zelenskyy met Trump at Mar‑a‑Lago and Trump reported a phone call with Putin, prompting market participants to view a U.S.‑facilitated summit as unlikely, pushing the US outcome down from 22 % to 2 % by year‑end.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago to push Ukraine peace plan
US plunges to 3%19%
U.S. President Donald Trump met Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago to discuss peace proposals and potential talks with Putin, raising hopes for a trilateral meeting. This boosted optimism for a US-hosted meeting, temporarily increasing the US outcome price before it declined as no meeting materialized.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet at Mar-a-Lago, express optimism on peace deal
US dips to 3%2%
Zelenskyy and Trump held a two-hour meeting in Florida, with Trump stating talks were in final stages and planning a follow-up call with Putin. This raised market optimism for a US meeting but did not indicate a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet at Mar-a-Lago, express optimism on peace deal
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 63%9%
Zelenskyy and Trump held a lengthy meeting at Mar-a-Lago discussing a near-complete peace deal, but Putin's opposition to ceasefire timing kept direct talks uncertain, influencing market prices downward for meeting in US or Russia.
Russia launches missile strikes on Kyiv ahead of Trump-Zelenskyy meeting
No meeting before 2027 dips to 59%4%
Russia intensified missile and drone attacks on Kyiv just before the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, signaling pressure tactics by Putin to influence negotiations. Zelenskyy condemned the attacks as evidence Putin was not serious about peace, increasing market skepticism about a direct meeting with Putin soon.
Zelenskyy to travel to US for Trump meeting amid push for Ukraine deal
US dips to 2%3%
Zelenskyy confirmed travel to the US for a planned meeting with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, marking a significant diplomatic development in the peace process.
Zelenskyy announces planned meeting with Trump in Florida amid peace deal push
US plunges to 2%20%
Zelenskyy was set to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss a US-backed peace plan, signaling increased diplomatic activity but with Putin showing little sign of softening, impacting expectations for a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Zelenskyy to meet Trump in Florida amid diplomatic push to end war
US drops to 10%12%
Zelenskyy planned a meeting with Trump in Florida to advance peace talks, signaling US involvement in mediation. This raised hopes for a meeting involving Putin, but no direct talks occurred, influencing market prices to slightly favor a meeting but with uncertainty.
Zelenskyy to travel to US for meeting with Trump
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 70%8%
Zelenskyy announced his upcoming travel to the United States for a meeting with Trump, diverting attention from any possible direct talks with Putin and reinforcing expectations that a Zelenskyy‑Putin encounter was unlikely in the near term, lifting the “No meeting” price.
Zelenskyy announces upcoming US meeting with Trump amid Ukraine peace push
No meeting before 2027 drops to 54%5%
Zelenskyy planned to meet Trump in the US to discuss a peace deal, signaling increased diplomatic activity but with Putin showing little sign of softening, which affected market expectations for meeting locations.
Zelenskyy to meet Trump amid push for Ukraine peace deal
No meeting before 2027 rises to 65%2%
Zelenskyy planned a meeting with Trump in the US to discuss peace efforts, signaling US involvement but no direct meeting with Putin, which kept market expectations for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting low.
Zelenskyy to meet Trump in Florida amid diplomatic push for Ukraine peace deal
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 64%5%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced a planned meeting with US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss a peace deal, signaling active US involvement in diplomacy. This raised hopes for progress but did not directly involve a meeting with Putin, keeping the market cautious.
Zelenskyy announces upcoming meeting with Trump in Florida amid peace deal push
US plunges to 3%19%
Zelenskyy planned to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss peace talks, signaling US involvement in brokering a deal. This raised hopes for progress but did not include direct talks with Putin, limiting immediate prospects for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Zelenskyy announces planned meeting with Trump in Florida amid peace push
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
Zelenskyy planned to meet US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss peace efforts, signaling increased diplomatic activity but no direct talks with Putin. This raised hopes for progress but did not directly involve a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
Zelensky to travel to US for Trump meeting amid push for Ukraine peace deal
US plunges to 3%19%
Zelensky announced travel to the US for a Trump meeting in Florida, shifting focus to US‑Ukrainian talks and away from a direct Zelensky‑Putin meeting, reinforcing the “No meeting” price rise.
Putin vows victory in Ukraine in New Year’s address amid Trump‑backed peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 69%2%
In a New Year’s address, Putin reaffirmed Russia’s war aims and dismissed any imminent peace summit, reinforcing market expectations that a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting was not forthcoming. The “No meeting before 2027” line ticked up modestly (67 % → 69 % on 2025‑12‑25).
Zelenskyy and Trump meet in Florida amid peace deal talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%4%
Zelenskyy met with US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss a 20-point peace plan and security guarantees. Trump had a productive call with Putin before the meeting, raising hopes for progress, but territorial issues remained unresolved, keeping direct Zelenskyy-Putin talks uncertain.
Zelenskyy to meet Trump in Florida amid push for Ukraine peace deal
US plunges to 3%19%
Zelenskyy traveled to the US to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss a revised 20-point peace plan. This high-profile meeting raised market hopes for progress but Putin showed little sign of softening, tempering expectations.
US-led peace talks near completion but Putin stalls agreement
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 65%6%
US and Ukrainian officials claimed a peace deal was 90% complete after talks in Florida and Paris, but Putin delayed progress, citing a drone attack on his residence as justification for a tougher stance. This stalled the peace process and reduced market confidence in a near-term meeting.
Zelenskyy and US present revised 20-point peace plan
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 65%6%
Zelenskyy unveiled a coordinated peace proposal with the US, but key issues like territorial concessions remained unresolved, limiting progress toward a meeting and increasing market skepticism about near-term talks.
Zelenskyy unveils revised 20-point peace plan coordinated with US
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 71%12%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented a newly revised 20-point peace proposal coordinated with the US, narrowing gaps but leaving major territorial disputes unresolved. This diplomatic shift caused a massive drop in alternative location options as the market consolidated around 'No meeting before 2027'.
Hungarian premier says he would talk to Putin but won’t initiate contact
A brief statement that Hungarian leader Péter Magyar might speak with Putin raised the Hungary outcome to 23 % on 2025‑11‑06, but the probability quickly fell as attention shifted to US‑led talks.
Zelenskyy Unveils Details of New 20-Point Peace Plan, Seeks Trump Talks
No meeting before 2027 dips to 67%4%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented a revised 20-point peace plan coordinated with the US, signaling intense diplomatic activity but highlighting major unresolved territorial disputes.
Zelenskyy unveils revised US-backed 20-point peace plan
No meeting before 2027 surges to 75%16%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy presented a new peace plan coordinated with the US, marking progress in negotiations but leaving key territorial issues unresolved. This development raised hopes for a peace deal but highlighted remaining obstacles, influencing market expectations.
First round of Ukraine‑US‑Russia trilateral talks end in Abu Dhabi with no decision
Qatar / UAE plunges to 2%47%
The first trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi (UAE) ended without a decision, causing a small drop in the “UAE” probability as the market saw the venue as less likely to host a leader‑level summit.
Putin rejects U.S. peace plan, says any talks must be in Moscow
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Putin dismissed the U.S. 20‑point peace plan and hinted that any meeting would have to occur in Moscow, sending the “Russia” market down to ~1 % and reinforcing expectations of no meeting.
U.S., Russian and Ukrainian envoys claim 90 % of peace deal drafted in Miami
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%12%
A series of talks in Miami (Florida) involving U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Ukrainian officials produced a claim that a peace framework was 90 % complete. The emphasis on a U.S.–led peace track lowered confidence in any direct Zelensky‑Putin meeting, pushing the market further toward “No meeting”.
US-mediated talks in Miami and Paris claim peace deal 90% complete but Putin stalls
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 72%5%
Diplomatic talks involving US, Ukraine, and Russia claimed a peace deal was nearly complete, but Putin's reluctance and military actions stalled progress, dampening market expectations for a near-term meeting and shifting probabilities toward no meeting before 2027.
Kazakhstan hinted at serving as back‑channel for Ukraine‑Russia talks
Kazakhstan plunges to 1%48%
A brief mention of a possible Kazakh‑mediated back‑channel meeting surfaced in December, but the proposal never materialised; traders cut the Kazakhstan probability as the lead‑up to the meeting faded.
Putin says he will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to sign pre‑agreed deals
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Putin told U.S. reporters he would only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow to finalize already‑reached agreements. The comment undercut expectations of a neutral‑venue meeting, driving the “Switzerland” and “Qatar/UAE” markets down to ~1 % and lifting the “No meeting before 2027” odds.
Kremlin says Putin will meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow to finalize agreements
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 84%14%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin would meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow and only to finalize agreements, reinforcing the perception that a meeting in Russia is unlikely and pushing “No meeting before 2027” up sharply.
Kremlin says Putin will only meet Zelenskyy in Moscow
Russia plunges to 1%43%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov repeated that Putin would meet Zelenskyy only in Moscow, reinforcing the “Russia” outcome and keeping its price near 1 % for the rest of the window.
Putin says there is ‘no point’ in meeting Zelenskyy before a settlement
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 75%14%
Putin rejected a direct meeting in Istanbul, stating there was “no point” in meeting before a lasting deal was reached. This reinforced market confidence that no meeting would occur, pushing the “No meeting before 2027” chance upward.
After Putin’s visit, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy may travel to India in Jan 2026
India plunges to 1%26%
Reports in Indian media suggested Zelenskyy could visit New Delhi in January 2026, shortly after Putin’s own India trip. The speculation pushed the India outcome down from 27 % to 1 % over the next months.
Putin skips scheduled Istanbul summit with Zelenskyy
Turkey dips to 7%4%
Putin’s refusal to travel to Turkey for a summit in Istanbul caused the market’s “Turkey” price to plunge from double‑digit levels back to low single‑digits.
Putin visits India for strategic partnership talks, India plans Zelenskyy visit
India plunges to 1%26%
Putin's visit to India in December 2025 was followed by reports that India was preparing to host Zelenskyy in early 2026, reflecting diplomatic balancing but no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy in India, leading to low market confidence for India as meeting location.
Putin says there are points he can't agree to in the U.S. proposal to end Ukraine war
No meeting before 2027 rises to 68%4%
Putin publicly rejected key points of the U.S. peace proposal, signalling that talks were stalled and that a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin encounter was unlikely in the near term. This helped push the “No meeting before 2027” line upward (64 % → 68 % on 2025‑12‑04) and depressed the Russia‑adjacent options.
U.S. envoy Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow as Zelenskyy tours Europe
Russia plunges to 1%43%
U.S. envoy Witkoff met Putin in Moscow while Zelenskyy toured Europe, signalling that a direct Zelenskyy‑Putin encounter was not on the agenda and contributing to the sharp drop in the Russia outcome (price fell to 1 % by 2025‑12‑14).
US envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow as Zelenskyy tours Europe
No meeting before 2027 plunges to 30%19%
US special envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to present a peace plan, while Zelenskyy toured European countries to sustain support. This diplomatic activity indicated ongoing efforts but no direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, maintaining uncertainty about a future encounter location.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow
US plunges to 2%20%
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff travelled to Moscow for a closed‑door meeting with Putin. The news shifted attention to U.S.‑led mediation and reduced the market’s view that the meeting would occur in the U.S., sending the “US” outcome down from ~22 % to ~2 % over the following weeks.
US and Ukrainian officials negotiate revised US-backed peace plan in Geneva
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 64%5%
A revised 19-point US-backed peace plan was actively negotiated in late November 2025 in Geneva, aiming to end the Russia-Ukraine war. This development initially raised market expectations for a meeting but did not lead to direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin, contributing to early market fluctuations.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán meets Putin in Moscow amid election tensions
Hungary drops to 11%7%
Orbán's meeting with Putin reinforced Hungary's role as a key Russian ally in Europe, but his subsequent electoral defeat in April 2026 reduced Russia's influence, lowering the market's confidence in Hungary as a meeting venue.
Hungarian PM Orbán meets Putin in Moscow, defying EU leaders
Orbán met Putin in Moscow to discuss energy security and the Ukraine war, reinforcing Hungary's unique position in the EU and signaling continued close ties with Russia. This complicated Hungary's role as a neutral host and affected market confidence in a Hungary meeting.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban meets Putin in Moscow, suggests future meetings
Hungary drops to 16%7%
Hungarian PM Viktor Orban met Putin in Moscow, expressing support and suggesting potential future meetings with Putin and Zelenskyy, keeping Hungary as a possible venue. This maintained some market interest in Hungary as a meeting location.
Zelenskyy announces new round of peace talks with US cooperation
No meeting before 2027 rises to 65%4%
Zelenskyy announced ongoing coordination with American representatives to advance peace and security guarantees, signaling diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting with Putin. This maintained market uncertainty and supported the 'No meeting before 2027' option.
Zelenskyy announces new meeting of 'Coalition of the Determined' amid peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 60%1%
Zelenskyy announced a meeting of the 'Coalition of the Determined' to coordinate further actions in the war and peace process, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting with Putin, which maintained market uncertainty and favored 'No meeting before 2027'.
Zelenskyy signals readiness to discuss US peace plan with Trump, Trump envoy to meet Putin
No meeting before 2027 surges to 79%20%
Zelenskyy expressed willingness to move forward with a US-backed peace deal and discuss sensitive points with Trump, while Trump dispatched envoy Steve Witkoff to meet Putin in Moscow. This raised hopes for progress but Trump stated he would only meet Zelenskyy and Putin when the deal was in final stages, causing market shifts.
US envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow amid peace talks
No meeting before 2027 drops to 53%6%
US special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow as part of ongoing peace negotiations, signaling active US involvement but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin yet.
Zelenskyy says next Russia‑Ukraine peace talks set for Abu Dhabi, then postpones them
Qatar / UAE plunges to 3%46%
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff announced a trilateral meeting set for Abu Dhabi on 4‑5 Feb 2026, but Zelenskyy later postponed it. The announcement temporarily raised the Qatar/UAE probability, then the postponement caused a collapse from 49 % to 3 % as the market saw the venue fading.
Trump dispatches special envoy Witkoff to meet Putin in Moscow
US plunges to 5%44%
Trump sent US special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow, part of a broader diplomatic effort to finalize a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready to move forward with US peace plan
US plunges to 5%44%
Zelenskyy announced Kyiv was ready to advance a US-backed peace deal and discuss sensitive points with Donald Trump, signaling a major diplomatic step toward potential Zelenskyy-Putin talks.
Putin says any meeting with Zelenskyy must be in Moscow
No meeting before 2027 dips to 1%1%
Putin’s earlier comment that he would consider meeting only in Moscow reduced optimism for neutral‑site venues, causing a drop in the “Switzerland” and “Qatar / UAE” odds.
US, Ukraine, and European officials hold productive peace talks in Geneva
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%4%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Ukrainian officials met in Geneva to discuss a US-proposed 28-point peace plan. The talks were described as the most productive so far, with progress on a framework that required presidential approval. This raised hopes for a peace deal but faced skepticism due to territorial disputes.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio leads peace talks in Geneva with Ukraine and Russia
Switzerland plunges to 1%50%
Marco Rubio arrived in Geneva for discussions on a US peace plan, marking a significant diplomatic push involving Ukraine and Russia. This event raised hopes for a meeting but highlighted ongoing challenges, causing initial market adjustments.
US, Ukraine, and Russia hold trilateral peace talks in the UAE
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 65%6%
In late November 2025, trilateral peace talks involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia took place in the United Arab Emirates, focusing on a US-backed 20-point peace plan. These talks raised hopes for progress but did not lead to a breakthrough, influencing market prices for meeting locations.
U.S. and Ukraine unveil 20‑point peace plan, Gulf states slated to host next talks
No meeting before 2027 plunges to 54%23%
A joint U.S.–Ukrainian 20‑point peace plan was disclosed, with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar acting as hosts for a next trilateral round. The prospect of a meeting in the Gulf sharply cut the market’s odds for Qatar/UAE, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Belarus and China, moving them toward the “No meeting” outcome.
Zelenskyy arrives in Turkey to revive peace talks with Russia
Turkey plunges to 13%16%
Zelenskyy traveled to Turkey with a delegation to engage in peace discussions, signaling Ukraine's openness to negotiations in neutral venues. This raised hopes for a meeting but did not materialize into direct talks with Putin, leading to a decline in market confidence for Turkey as a meeting location.
Zelenskyy meets Turkish President Erdogan to push for peace talks
Turkey drops to 20%9%
Zelenskyy traveled to Ankara to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to intensify peace negotiations, signaling a renewed diplomatic push despite Russia's refusal to participate. Turkey's role as a mediator was highlighted, but no Russian representatives attended, indicating ongoing challenges in direct talks.
Zelenskyy heads to Turkey for peace talks, says Russia will not attend
Turkey drops to 19%10%
Zelenskyy travelled to Turkey to meet President Erdogan and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, explicitly stating that no Russian officials would attend. The announcement that the talks would be limited to Turkey and the U.S. drove the market’s Turkey probability sharply lower (from 29 % to 19 % on 2025‑11‑18) and boosted the “No meeting before 2027” line as a direct‑Russia encounter became unlikely.
Putin says peace possible only if Ukraine cedes Donbas
No meeting before 2027 rises to 73%3%
Putin, during a post‑summit press conference, reiterated his willingness to discuss a peace deal only if Ukraine cedes Donbas. Media coverage highlighted the low probability of a direct meeting, reinforcing the market’s tilt toward “No meeting”.
Zelenskyy travels to Turkey to revive peace talks without Russian participation
Turkey plunges to 2%27%
Zelenskyy visited Turkey to meet with US envoy and Turkish President Erdogan to restart peace negotiations, but Russia declined to participate, reducing chances of a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting there. This caused the market price for Turkey as meeting location to drop sharply.
Zelenskyy visits Turkey to revive stalled peace talks with Russia
Turkey drops to 20%9%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy traveled to Turkey to attempt to restart peace negotiations with Russia, signaling willingness to engage but with no Russian participation confirmed. This raised hopes for a meeting but no direct encounter with Putin occurred.
Geneva peace talks flashpoint as Trump administration leaks 28-point Ukraine peace plan
The controversial 28-point peace plan leaked to the press, reportedly involving a cap on Ukraine's military and a freeze on NATO membership, causing market uncertainty about the feasibility of a peace deal.
Ukraine appeals to Turkey to help organize Zelenskyy-Putin summit
Turkey plunges to 7%22%
Ukraine requested Turkey's assistance in organizing a summit-level meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, with Turkey seen as a mediator. Kremlin stated Putin is ready to meet in Moscow only if the meeting yields concrete results, limiting venue options and keeping market prices for Turkey and Russia low.
Putin absent from planned Istanbul peace talks, Trump excuses absence
No meeting before 2027 drops to 16%13%
Putin did not attend scheduled direct negotiations in Istanbul, with Trump suggesting Putin's absence was due to his non-attendance rather than refusal, signaling stalled peace talks and reducing chances of a meeting soon.
Putin proposes direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul after European ceasefire calls
Turkey drops to 20%9%
Following European calls for a ceasefire extension, Putin suggested direct talks in Istanbul, but neither Putin nor Zelenskyy attended the scheduled meeting, with Putin sending a low-level delegation instead. This failure to hold direct talks dampened market optimism for a meeting in Turkey.
Zelenskyy publicly invites Putin to Kyiv for peace talks, refuses Moscow or Belarus
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
Zelenskyy issued a bold public invitation to Putin to meet in Kyiv, challenging him to come "if he dares," while firmly refusing to travel to Moscow or Belarus. This escalated the diplomatic standoff and diminished prospects for a meeting in Russia or Belarus, pushing market prices for Kyiv and Belarus options down.
Zelenskyy publicly offers to meet Putin in Turkey for face-to-face talks
Turkey jumps to 37%8%
On May 11, 2025, Zelenskyy announced readiness to travel to Turkey for direct talks with Putin, signaling a willingness to negotiate in a neutral venue. This raised market expectations for a meeting in Turkey, reflected in initial price levels.
Putin and Trump meet in Alaska, discuss Ukraine peace but no agreement reached
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%4%
In August 2025, Putin and Trump met in Alaska and voiced interest in economic cooperation and peace talks, but no concrete agreement was reached. Putin reportedly offered to end the war if Ukraine ceded Donbas, which Zelenskyy rejected. This meeting set a diplomatic context but did not lead to direct Putin-Zelenskyy talks, influencing market expectations.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov signals readiness to discuss US-Russia summit preparations
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 73%14%
Lavrov stated Russia was ready to discuss preparations for a summit with the US, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement that could influence meeting prospects between Zelenskyy and Putin. This contributed to early market movements but did not lead to a direct meeting.
Russia launches strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure amid peace talks
No meeting before 2027 rises to 62%3%
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid coincided with trilateral peace talks, undermining trust and causing both Putin and Zelenskyy to reject in-person meeting offers. This heightened skepticism about a near-term meeting, boosting the 'No meeting before 2027' outcome.
Kremlin sees no grounds for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 surges to 75%16%
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated Moscow does not see concrete steps from Kyiv to organize a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, emphasizing territorial issues as complex and requiring expert-level work. This dampened market expectations for a meeting soon, increasing the 'No meeting before 2027' price.
Kremlin insists Moscow only venue for Zelenskyy-Putin talks
Russia plunges to 1%43%
The Kremlin reiterated that it considers only Moscow as the appropriate venue for a meeting with Zelenskyy, rejecting other locations and emphasizing the need for specific agreements before a meeting, reinforcing diplomatic stalemate and lowering market confidence in a meeting outside Russia.
Putin skips scheduled Istanbul meeting with Zelensky, citing logistical issues
Turkey plunges to 7%22%
Early speculation that Istanbul could host direct talks collapsed after Putin failed to attend the scheduled May 15 meeting, prompting a sharp decline in the “Turkey” outcome and a rise in “No meeting”.
Russia Rejects US Push for Zelenskyy-Putin Summit
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 59%9%
Russia rejected a push by the United States to organize a summit between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, causing the probability of 'No meeting before 2027' to rise and other options to decline.
US Special Envoy says Zelenskyy-Putin meeting possible within weeks
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff stated that a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin could happen within three weeks, possibly including US President Trump, raising market hopes for a near-term summit and causing some price fluctuations in related outcomes.
Market starts with moderate optimism for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting in neutral venues
At the start of the analysis window, the market showed moderate probabilities for meetings in Qatar/UAE, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Turkey, and Belarus, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts and Zelenskyy's openness to talks in neutral countries.
Putin visits India amid diplomatic balancing by Ukraine and India
India plunges to 1%26%
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited India, where diplomatic efforts included discussions with Indian leaders who maintain contacts with both Russia and Ukraine. This visit raised speculation about India as a potential meeting venue for Zelenskyy and Putin, briefly supporting the India option in the market.
Hungary offers to host Putin-Zelenskyy peace talks amid US interest
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó confirmed Hungary's readiness to host peace talks between Putin and Zelenskyy, supported by US President Donald Trump's administration considering Budapest as a venue. This raised market expectations for a meeting in Hungary, boosting that outcome's price.
US releases 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, sparking diplomatic activity
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
The US circulated a detailed 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, initiating a diplomatic push involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US. This plan led to multiple rounds of talks but faced resistance from Russia, especially on territorial issues, limiting prospects for a direct Zelenskyy-Putin meeting and influencing early market price shifts away from meeting locations toward 'No meeting before 2027'.
Kremlin insists Zelenskyy must come to Moscow for talks
Russia plunges to 8%36%
Russian officials, including Dmitry Peskov, reiterated that Moscow is the only acceptable venue for a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting, rejecting other locations. Zelenskyy publicly refused to meet in Moscow or Belarus, sharply reducing market confidence in meetings in Russia or Belarus and increasing "No meeting before 2027" odds.
Zelenskyy publicly offers to meet Putin in Turkey for peace talks
On November 6, 2025, Zelenskyy announced readiness to travel to Turkey for face-to-face talks with Putin, signaling Ukraine's willingness to negotiate directly. This raised initial market hopes for a meeting in Turkey, reflected in the price movements.
Ukraine rules out Minsk and Russia as venues for Zelenskyy-Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 drops to 51%8%
Ukrainian officials confirmed readiness for a meeting but ruled out Minsk and Russia as locations, limiting possible venues and affecting market prices for Russia and Belarus options.
Trump announces potential trilateral summit with Putin and Zelenskyy
Trump signaled interest in a three-way meeting between Russia, Ukraine, and the US, boosting hopes for direct negotiations and influencing market expectations for a meeting location.
Trump pledges to push for a Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting after August 2025 Alaska summit
No meeting before 2027 surges to 75%16%
The market opened at 59 % “No meeting before 2027”. Early optimism that Trump might force a meeting after the August 2025 Alaska summit caused the price to rise to 75 % by 17 Nov 2025.
US, Russia and Ukraine to hold trilateral talks in UAE, Zelenskyy says
No meeting before 2027 surges to 79%20%
Zelenskyy announced trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US to be held in the UAE, signaling a diplomatic push but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. This news caused a sharp drop in the Qatar/UAE meeting probability and increased the likelihood of no meeting before 2027.
Kremlin insists Moscow only venue for Zelenskyy-Putin talks
Russia plunges to 8%36%
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia considers only Moscow as the location for a meeting with Zelenskyy, rejecting other venues. This hardened stance contributed to market declines in the likelihood of meetings outside Russia, particularly Kyiv or Belarus.
Zelenskyy instructs team to prepare for face-to-face meeting with Putin
Zelenskyy publicly stated his intention to discuss territorial issues directly with Putin and instructed his team to prepare for a face-to-face meeting, signaling early diplomatic efforts that influenced market optimism about a meeting occurring.
Ukraine pushes Turkey to facilitate Zelenskyy-Putin summit talks
Turkey plunges to 8%21%
Ukraine officially requested Turkey's help to organize a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, signaling Kyiv's readiness for high-level negotiations and willingness to consider neutral venues other than Moscow or Belarus. This raised hopes for a meeting but faced challenges due to Putin's prior refusals.
Zelenskyy announces trilateral talks with Russia and US in UAE
Qatar / UAE plunges to 3%46%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the United States would be held in the United Arab Emirates, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. This announcement initially affected market expectations for a meeting in UAE/Qatar and related locations.
Ukraine and Russia hold trilateral talks in Switzerland with US involvement
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%4%
Trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US took place in Switzerland, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin. This maintained market expectations of no imminent meeting.
Zelenskyy reiterates need for direct engagement with Putin
Early in the analysis window Zelenskyy’s repeated calls for a direct summit kept the market’s baseline probability of a meeting modest; the initial 59 % price for “No meeting” reflects the prevailing scepticism.
Renewed diplomatic push for Ukraine peace talks with US mediation
No meeting before 2027 rises to 63%4%
Following reports of a 28-point peace plan, fresh rounds of talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US were initiated, raising hopes for progress but with skepticism about Russia's willingness to compromise. This increased market interest in a meeting but uncertainty remained.
US-Russia summit in Alaska raises hopes for peace talks
The 2025 Russia–United States summit in Alaska included discussions on ending the Ukraine war, with Putin reportedly offering to end the war if Ukraine ceded Donbas, but Zelenskyy rejected concessions. This event initially raised hopes for a meeting but also highlighted deep disagreements, causing market uncertainty.
Trump and Putin meet in Alaska summit, discuss Ukraine peace prospects
The 2025 Russia–United States summit in Alaska raised hopes for peace talks, with Putin reportedly offering to end the war if Ukraine ceded Donbas, but Zelenskyy rejected territorial concessions. This event initially influenced market optimism about a meeting.
Ukraine pushes Turkey to mediate Zelenskyy-Putin summit talks
Turkey drops to 23%6%
Ukraine officially requested Turkey's assistance to organize a direct meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, aiming to break the diplomatic deadlock and accelerate peace talks. This move highlighted Turkey's role as a mediator but faced challenges due to Russia's conditions and ongoing conflict dynamics.
Talks hint at possible Abu Dhabi trilateral summit
Early‑month speculation that a trilateral summit could be hosted in the Gulf (Abu Dhabi) led to a brief spike in the Qatar/UAE outcome (price at 49 % on 2025‑11‑06) before the prospect faded as other venues were discussed.
Switzerland mooted as neutral venue for potential Zelenskyy‑Putin summit
Switzerland plunges to 2%49%
Early‑November reports suggested a Swiss‑hosted summit could be the neutral ground for a Zelenskyy‑Putin meeting, lifting the Switzerland odds. Subsequent diplomatic dead‑locks caused the probability to collapse to near‑zero by late January.
Kremlin says no grounds for a Zelensky‑Putin meeting
No meeting before 2027 drops to 59%5%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia sees no grounds for a Zelensky‑Putin meeting, stating that Kyiv has made no concrete steps. The market interpreted this as a strong signal that a meeting was unlikely, pushing the “No meeting before 2027” probability up sharply.
Kremlin insists Zelenskyy must come to Moscow for talks
No meeting before 2027 jumps to 73%14%
Russian President Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia only considers Moscow as the venue for a meeting with Zelenskyy, rejecting other locations. This hardened Russia's position on meeting conditions, reducing market confidence in meetings elsewhere.
US President Trump proposes trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy and Putin
Trump expressed willingness to host a trilateral meeting and provide security guarantees to Ukraine, raising initial market interest in a US-hosted meeting. However, skepticism remained due to ongoing conflict and negotiation challenges.
Trump announces plans for Russia-Ukraine peace talks including possible trilateral meeting
Turkey jumps to 37%8%
Following the 2025 Russia–United States summit, Trump indicated interest in facilitating peace talks involving Putin and Zelenskyy, including a potential trilateral meeting, raising market hopes for a meeting venue like Turkey or the US.
Zelenskyy rejects Belarus as venue for Putin talks
Belarus plunges to 0%47%
Zelenskyy publicly ruled out meeting in Belarus, reinforcing his preference for neutral third‑countries and causing the Belarus outcome to fall from 47 % to zero by April 2026.
Speculation that Kazakhstan could host Zelensky‑Putin talks
Kazakhstan plunges to 1%48%
Early‑month speculation that Kazakhstan might serve as a neutral venue for a Zelenskyy‑Putin summit appeared in Ukrainian outlets, briefly lifting the Kazakhstan probability before it collapsed to 1 % as no concrete invitation materialised.
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