The United States has not conducted a nuclear explosive test since 1992, upholding a de facto moratorium despite not ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, with the National Nuclear Security Administration relying on stockpile stewardship, subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site, and computer simulations to certify warheads. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing on par with adversaries like Russia and China fueled speculation, but Department of Energy officials emphasized non-explosive activities, prompting congressional pushback including Sen. Jacky Rosen's April 13, 2026, site visit highlighting health risks from past tests. FY2026 NNSA budget allocates $4.2 billion for science, technology, and test readiness amid accusations of Chinese covert low-yield tests. Traders weigh rhetorical escalation against technical, political barriers and Nevada delegation opposition, with no scheduled detonations announced.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯдерне випробування США...?
Ядерне випробування США...?
$639,432 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
1%
September 30, 2026
8%
December 31, 2026
13%
$639,432 Обс.
June 30, 2026
$23,204 Обс.
1%
September 30, 2026
$2,149 Обс.
8%
December 31, 2026
$3,860 Обс.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has not conducted a nuclear explosive test since 1992, upholding a de facto moratorium despite not ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, with the National Nuclear Security Administration relying on stockpile stewardship, subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site, and computer simulations to certify warheads. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing on par with adversaries like Russia and China fueled speculation, but Department of Energy officials emphasized non-explosive activities, prompting congressional pushback including Sen. Jacky Rosen's April 13, 2026, site visit highlighting health risks from past tests. FY2026 NNSA budget allocates $4.2 billion for science, technology, and test readiness amid accusations of Chinese covert low-yield tests. Traders weigh rhetorical escalation against technical, political barriers and Nevada delegation opposition, with no scheduled detonations announced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$639,432Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has not conducted a nuclear explosive test since 1992, upholding a de facto moratorium despite not ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, with the National Nuclear Security Administration relying on stockpile stewardship, subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site, and computer simulations to certify warheads. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing on par with adversaries like Russia and China fueled speculation, but Department of Energy officials emphasized non-explosive activities, prompting congressional pushback including Sen. Jacky Rosen's April 13, 2026, site visit highlighting health risks from past tests. FY2026 NNSA budget allocates $4.2 billion for science, technology, and test readiness amid accusations of Chinese covert low-yield tests. Traders weigh rhetorical escalation against technical, political barriers and Nevada delegation opposition, with no scheduled detonations announced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$639,432Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has not conducted a nuclear explosive test since 1992, upholding a de facto moratorium despite not ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, with the National Nuclear Security Administration relying on stockpile stewardship, subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site, and computer simulations to certify warheads. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing on par with adversaries like Russia and China fueled speculation, but Department of Energy officials emphasized non-explosive activities, prompting congressional pushback including Sen. Jacky Rosen's April 13, 2026, site visit highlighting health risks from past tests. FY2026 NNSA budget allocates $4.2 billion for science, technology, and test readiness amid accusations of Chinese covert low-yield tests. Traders weigh rhetorical escalation against technical, political barriers and Nevada delegation opposition, with no scheduled detonations announced.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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