Russian forces have intensified pressure on the Orikhiv axis in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with reports of local advances and a possible breakthrough in early August 2026 following the 2025 capture of nearby settlements such as Huliapole. Russian units have employed glide bombs, including heavy FAB-3000 strikes, alongside infantry tactics involving civilian disguises to reduce detection by Ukrainian drones. Ukrainian forces have reported inflicting losses and conducting limited counter-moves in the sector, though the front remains contested amid broader Russian efforts to improve positions across southern Ukraine. Trader assessments of capture timelines reflect these incremental battlefield shifts, Ukrainian defensive resilience, and the absence of major escalations or external interventions that could alter momentum before any specified resolution date.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
$92,771 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
5%
December 31
29%
$92,771 Обс.
September 30
$50,475 Обс.
5%
December 31
$42,296 Обс.
29%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have intensified pressure on the Orikhiv axis in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with reports of local advances and a possible breakthrough in early August 2026 following the 2025 capture of nearby settlements such as Huliapole. Russian units have employed glide bombs, including heavy FAB-3000 strikes, alongside infantry tactics involving civilian disguises to reduce detection by Ukrainian drones. Ukrainian forces have reported inflicting losses and conducting limited counter-moves in the sector, though the front remains contested amid broader Russian efforts to improve positions across southern Ukraine. Trader assessments of capture timelines reflect these incremental battlefield shifts, Ukrainian defensive resilience, and the absence of major escalations or external interventions that could alter momentum before any specified resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$92,771Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have intensified pressure on the Orikhiv axis in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with reports of local advances and a possible breakthrough in early August 2026 following the 2025 capture of nearby settlements such as Huliapole. Russian units have employed glide bombs, including heavy FAB-3000 strikes, alongside infantry tactics involving civilian disguises to reduce detection by Ukrainian drones. Ukrainian forces have reported inflicting losses and conducting limited counter-moves in the sector, though the front remains contested amid broader Russian efforts to improve positions across southern Ukraine. Trader assessments of capture timelines reflect these incremental battlefield shifts, Ukrainian defensive resilience, and the absence of major escalations or external interventions that could alter momentum before any specified resolution date.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the train station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train station location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png
Train station location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png
Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Обсяг
$92,771Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 21, 2026, 1:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have intensified pressure on the Orikhiv axis in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with reports of local advances and a possible breakthrough in early August 2026 following the 2025 capture of nearby settlements such as Huliapole. Russian units have employed glide bombs, including heavy FAB-3000 strikes, alongside infantry tactics involving civilian disguises to reduce detection by Ukrainian drones. Ukrainian forces have reported inflicting losses and conducting limited counter-moves in the sector, though the front remains contested amid broader Russian efforts to improve positions across southern Ukraine. Trader assessments of capture timelines reflect these incremental battlefield shifts, Ukrainian defensive resilience, and the absence of major escalations or external interventions that could alter momentum before any specified resolution date.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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