Iranian lawmakers submitted formal proposals in August 2026 to withdraw from the NPT, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and sanctions pressure as justification under Article X. These moves follow Iran's 2025 suspension of IAEA inspector access and verification activities, which already severely curtailed international monitoring of its enrichment program and stockpiles without triggering formal exit procedures. Analysts note repeated parliamentary discussions of withdrawal have never advanced to government policy, with internal divisions and strategic preference for nuclear ambiguity over an explicit break that would signal weapons intent and require three months' notice to the UN Security Council. This pattern of leverage-seeking rhetoric amid stalled diplomacy supports trader consensus against an actual departure before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
9% шанс
$393,486 Обс.
$393,486 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
9% шанс
$393,486 Обс.
$393,486 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian lawmakers submitted formal proposals in August 2026 to withdraw from the NPT, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and sanctions pressure as justification under Article X. These moves follow Iran's 2025 suspension of IAEA inspector access and verification activities, which already severely curtailed international monitoring of its enrichment program and stockpiles without triggering formal exit procedures. Analysts note repeated parliamentary discussions of withdrawal have never advanced to government policy, with internal divisions and strategic preference for nuclear ambiguity over an explicit break that would signal weapons intent and require three months' notice to the UN Security Council. This pattern of leverage-seeking rhetoric amid stalled diplomacy supports trader consensus against an actual departure before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$393,486Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian lawmakers submitted formal proposals in August 2026 to withdraw from the NPT, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and sanctions pressure as justification under Article X. These moves follow Iran's 2025 suspension of IAEA inspector access and verification activities, which already severely curtailed international monitoring of its enrichment program and stockpiles without triggering formal exit procedures. Analysts note repeated parliamentary discussions of withdrawal have never advanced to government policy, with internal divisions and strategic preference for nuclear ambiguity over an explicit break that would signal weapons intent and require three months' notice to the UN Security Council. This pattern of leverage-seeking rhetoric amid stalled diplomacy supports trader consensus against an actual departure before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$393,486Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Iranian lawmakers submitted formal proposals in August 2026 to withdraw from the NPT, citing U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and sanctions pressure as justification under Article X. These moves follow Iran's 2025 suspension of IAEA inspector access and verification activities, which already severely curtailed international monitoring of its enrichment program and stockpiles without triggering formal exit procedures. Analysts note repeated parliamentary discussions of withdrawal have never advanced to government policy, with internal divisions and strategic preference for nuclear ambiguity over an explicit break that would signal weapons intent and require three months' notice to the UN Security Council. This pattern of leverage-seeking rhetoric amid stalled diplomacy supports trader consensus against an actual departure before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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