The developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures rapidly rising above +0.5°C thresholds according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, stands as the primary near-term catalyst elevating trader expectations for a June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly near or above 1.15°C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming at roughly 0.2°C per decade, combined with residual heat from the strong 2023–2024 El Niño and the transition from neutral conditions, supports anomalies clustered around 1.15–1.24°C, while model spread in El Niño intensification rates and short-term atmospheric variability introduce the observed dispersion across adjacent bins. Official agencies such as the WMO and Copernicus note that June outcomes hinge on precise land-ocean contrasts and any late-month cooling influences, with updated seasonal model ensembles expected to refine these probabilities ahead of final data releases.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 47%
1.25–1.29ºC 43%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
1.15–1.19ºC 33%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
31%
1.10–1.14ºC
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
33%
1.20–1.24ºC
30%
1.25–1.29ºC
32%
>1.29ºC
28%
>1.29ºC 47%
1.25–1.29ºC 43%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
1.15–1.19ºC 33%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$5 Обс.
31%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 Обс.
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 Обс.
33%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 Обс.
30%
1.25–1.29ºC
$64 Обс.
32%
>1.29ºC
$352 Обс.
28%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures rapidly rising above +0.5°C thresholds according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, stands as the primary near-term catalyst elevating trader expectations for a June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly near or above 1.15°C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming at roughly 0.2°C per decade, combined with residual heat from the strong 2023–2024 El Niño and the transition from neutral conditions, supports anomalies clustered around 1.15–1.24°C, while model spread in El Niño intensification rates and short-term atmospheric variability introduce the observed dispersion across adjacent bins. Official agencies such as the WMO and Copernicus note that June outcomes hinge on precise land-ocean contrasts and any late-month cooling influences, with updated seasonal model ensembles expected to refine these probabilities ahead of final data releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Обсяг
$593Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures rapidly rising above +0.5°C thresholds according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, stands as the primary near-term catalyst elevating trader expectations for a June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly near or above 1.15°C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming at roughly 0.2°C per decade, combined with residual heat from the strong 2023–2024 El Niño and the transition from neutral conditions, supports anomalies clustered around 1.15–1.24°C, while model spread in El Niño intensification rates and short-term atmospheric variability introduce the observed dispersion across adjacent bins. Official agencies such as the WMO and Copernicus note that June outcomes hinge on precise land-ocean contrasts and any late-month cooling influences, with updated seasonal model ensembles expected to refine these probabilities ahead of final data releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$593Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures rapidly rising above +0.5°C thresholds according to NOAA and IRI forecasts, stands as the primary near-term catalyst elevating trader expectations for a June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly near or above 1.15°C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Long-term anthropogenic warming at roughly 0.2°C per decade, combined with residual heat from the strong 2023–2024 El Niño and the transition from neutral conditions, supports anomalies clustered around 1.15–1.24°C, while model spread in El Niño intensification rates and short-term atmospheric variability introduce the observed dispersion across adjacent bins. Official agencies such as the WMO and Copernicus note that June outcomes hinge on precise land-ocean contrasts and any late-month cooling influences, with updated seasonal model ensembles expected to refine these probabilities ahead of final data releases.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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