**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from the relevant Khamenei account (67.5% for <5, 23.5% for 5-9) because the current Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has maintained a deliberately low public profile since assuming the role in March 2026.** Following the February 2026 assassination of his father, Mojtaba has issued only occasional written statements through official channels rather than frequent social media activity, with no video or audio appearances and limited visibility amid ongoing security concerns and institutional transitions. Recent updates through early August show no surge in output tied to immediate diplomatic, military, or domestic events that would drive higher volume, consistent with a pattern of measured, infrequent messaging. Higher brackets remain low-probability due to the absence of triggers like major escalations or scheduled addresses within the August 7–14 window.