Current low inflows from the record-poor 2025-2026 snowpack, combined with elevated evaporation under persistent megadrought conditions, keep Great Salt Lake levels near 4,189.7 ft as of late September 2026, driving trader focus on whether the seasonal minimum will stabilize at 4,189.5–4,189.6 ft or dip lower. USGS monitoring shows a downward trend, with human diversions reducing inflows by an estimated 11 ft historically and warming temperatures accelerating losses; conservation measures have prevented a new record low so far. Key variables include late-fall precipitation, tributary streamflow, and evaporation rates through year-end, with model consensus pointing to modest further decline absent significant storms. Trader-implied odds reflect this balance of ongoing arid conditions against targeted inflow gains.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
4,189.7 ft or more 31%
Below 4,189.3 ft 25%
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft 20%
4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft 0
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jan 1, 2027
Below 4,189.3 ft
25%
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft
20%
4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft
42%
4,189.7 ft or more
38%
4,189.7 ft or more 31%
Below 4,189.3 ft 25%
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft 20%
4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft 0
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jan 1, 2027
Below 4,189.3 ft
$0 Обс.
25%
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft
$0 Обс.
20%
4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft
$60 Обс.
42%
4,189.7 ft or more
$42 Обс.
38%
This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdbCurrent low inflows from the record-poor 2025-2026 snowpack, combined with elevated evaporation under persistent megadrought conditions, keep Great Salt Lake levels near 4,189.7 ft as of late September 2026, driving trader focus on whether the seasonal minimum will stabilize at 4,189.5–4,189.6 ft or dip lower. USGS monitoring shows a downward trend, with human diversions reducing inflows by an estimated 11 ft historically and warming temperatures accelerating losses; conservation measures have prevented a new record low so far. Key variables include late-fall precipitation, tributary streamflow, and evaporation rates through year-end, with model consensus pointing to modest further decline absent significant storms. Trader-implied odds reflect this balance of ongoing arid conditions against targeted inflow gains.
This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb
Ринок відкрито: Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Обсяг
$102Дата завершення
Jan 2, 2027Ринок відкрито
Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdbCurrent low inflows from the record-poor 2025-2026 snowpack, combined with elevated evaporation under persistent megadrought conditions, keep Great Salt Lake levels near 4,189.7 ft as of late September 2026, driving trader focus on whether the seasonal minimum will stabilize at 4,189.5–4,189.6 ft or dip lower. USGS monitoring shows a downward trend, with human diversions reducing inflows by an estimated 11 ft historically and warming temperatures accelerating losses; conservation measures have prevented a new record low so far. Key variables include late-fall precipitation, tributary streamflow, and evaporation rates through year-end, with model consensus pointing to modest further decline absent significant storms. Trader-implied odds reflect this balance of ongoing arid conditions against targeted inflow gains.
This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes".
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb
The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies.
If any data remains unpublished or unfinalized, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after December 31, 2026; it will then resolve based on the finalized data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to USGS differing from other sources.
If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 4,189.3 ft".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the USGS Daily Values service for site 10010000; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The service is available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb
Обсяг
$102Дата завершення
Jan 2, 2027Ринок відкрито
Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM ETCurrent low inflows from the record-poor 2025-2026 snowpack, combined with elevated evaporation under persistent megadrought conditions, keep Great Salt Lake levels near 4,189.7 ft as of late September 2026, driving trader focus on whether the seasonal minimum will stabilize at 4,189.5–4,189.6 ft or dip lower. USGS monitoring shows a downward trend, with human diversions reducing inflows by an estimated 11 ft historically and warming temperatures accelerating losses; conservation measures have prevented a new record low so far. Key variables include late-fall precipitation, tributary streamflow, and evaporation rates through year-end, with model consensus pointing to modest further decline absent significant storms. Trader-implied odds reflect this balance of ongoing arid conditions against targeted inflow gains.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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