**OpenAI’s September 1 blog post on Astra’s “critical” cybersecurity capabilities under its Preparedness Framework is the dominant catalyst driving the market’s heavy weighting toward an immediate release.** The post confirmed the model’s advanced exploit-finding and autonomous hacking potential—the first OpenAI system to hit this threshold—while stating that additional safeguards had been implemented, training had resumed on August 28, and Astra would be “available soon” with restricted cyber features initially limited to Daybreak Blue testers. This language, paired with the company’s explicit preparation for launch and system card disclosure, shifted trader sentiment sharply forward, producing the 43.4% probability on September 3 and 23.6% on or before September 2. The low odds on later September dates or “no release by September 30” (7.5%) reflect the absence of any announced delay and the market’s reading of “soon” as days rather than weeks, consistent with historical patterns around OpenAI frontier releases once safety reviews conclude. Key swing factors remain any last-minute regulatory scrutiny or further internal pauses, but the recent resumption of work and public transparency update have anchored near-term consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOpenAI's Astra released on...?
OpenAI's Astra released on...?
On or prior to September 2 8.0%
No release by September 30 8%
September 4 4.0%
September 27 3.5%
НОВЕ
$25,064 Обс.
НОВЕ
$25,064 Обс.
Sep 2, 2026
On or prior to September 2
24%
September 3
43%
September 4
25%
September 5
1%
September 6
1%
September 7
3%
September 8
2%
September 9
2%
September 10
2%
September 11
1%
September 12
1%
September 13
3%
September 14
1%
September 15
1%
September 16
1%
September 17
1%
September 18
1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
1%
September 22
1%
September 23
1%
September 24
1%
September 25
3%
September 26
1%
September 27
4%
September 28
3%
September 29
1%
September 30
1%
No release by September 30
8%
On or prior to September 2 8.0%
No release by September 30 8%
September 4 4.0%
September 27 3.5%
НОВЕ
$25,064 Обс.
НОВЕ
$25,064 Обс.
Sep 2, 2026
On or prior to September 2
$1,356 Обс.
24%
September 3
$1,402 Обс.
43%
September 4
$1,117 Обс.
25%
September 5
$565 Обс.
1%
September 6
$525 Обс.
1%
September 7
$520 Обс.
3%
September 8
$520 Обс.
2%
September 9
$520 Обс.
2%
September 10
$440 Обс.
2%
September 11
$733 Обс.
1%
September 12
$733 Обс.
1%
September 13
$657 Обс.
3%
September 14
$733 Обс.
1%
September 15
$1,150 Обс.
1%
September 16
$855 Обс.
1%
September 17
$855 Обс.
1%
September 18
$755 Обс.
1%
September 19
$755 Обс.
1%
September 20
$855 Обс.
1%
September 21
$712 Обс.
1%
September 22
$755 Обс.
1%
September 23
$712 Обс.
1%
September 24
$1,511 Обс.
1%
September 25
$712 Обс.
3%
September 26
$712 Обс.
1%
September 27
$1,433 Обс.
4%
September 28
$712 Обс.
3%
September 29
$755 Обс.
1%
September 30
$765 Обс.
1%
No release by September 30
$1,239 Обс.
8%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**OpenAI’s September 1 blog post on Astra’s “critical” cybersecurity capabilities under its Preparedness Framework is the dominant catalyst driving the market’s heavy weighting toward an immediate release.** The post confirmed the model’s advanced exploit-finding and autonomous hacking potential—the first OpenAI system to hit this threshold—while stating that additional safeguards had been implemented, training had resumed on August 28, and Astra would be “available soon” with restricted cyber features initially limited to Daybreak Blue testers. This language, paired with the company’s explicit preparation for launch and system card disclosure, shifted trader sentiment sharply forward, producing the 43.4% probability on September 3 and 23.6% on or before September 2.
The low odds on later September dates or “no release by September 30” (7.5%) reflect the absence of any announced delay and the market’s reading of “soon” as days rather than weeks, consistent with historical patterns around OpenAI frontier releases once safety reviews conclude. Key swing factors remain any last-minute regulatory scrutiny or further internal pauses, but the recent resumption of work and public transparency update have anchored near-term consensus.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ET
Обсяг
$25,064Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**OpenAI’s September 1 blog post on Astra’s “critical” cybersecurity capabilities under its Preparedness Framework is the dominant catalyst driving the market’s heavy weighting toward an immediate release.** The post confirmed the model’s advanced exploit-finding and autonomous hacking potential—the first OpenAI system to hit this threshold—while stating that additional safeguards had been implemented, training had resumed on August 28, and Astra would be “available soon” with restricted cyber features initially limited to Daybreak Blue testers. This language, paired with the company’s explicit preparation for launch and system card disclosure, shifted trader sentiment sharply forward, producing the 43.4% probability on September 3 and 23.6% on or before September 2.
The low odds on later September dates or “no release by September 30” (7.5%) reflect the absence of any announced delay and the market’s reading of “soon” as days rather than weeks, consistent with historical patterns around OpenAI frontier releases once safety reviews conclude. Key swing factors remain any last-minute regulatory scrutiny or further internal pauses, but the recent resumption of work and public transparency update have anchored near-term consensus.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$25,064Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**OpenAI’s September 1 blog post on Astra’s “critical” cybersecurity capabilities under its Preparedness Framework is the dominant catalyst driving the market’s heavy weighting toward an immediate release.** The post confirmed the model’s advanced exploit-finding and autonomous hacking potential—the first OpenAI system to hit this threshold—while stating that additional safeguards had been implemented, training had resumed on August 28, and Astra would be “available soon” with restricted cyber features initially limited to Daybreak Blue testers. This language, paired with the company’s explicit preparation for launch and system card disclosure, shifted trader sentiment sharply forward, producing the 43.4% probability on September 3 and 23.6% on or before September 2. The low odds on later September dates or “no release by September 30” (7.5%) reflect the absence of any announced delay and the market’s reading of “soon” as days rather than weeks, consistent with historical patterns around OpenAI frontier releases once safety reviews conclude. Key swing factors remain any last-minute regulatory scrutiny or further internal pauses, but the recent resumption of work and public transparency update have anchored near-term consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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