Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO by December 31, 2027, with no listing priced at a 32% implied probability amid internal tensions between CEO Sam Altman—pushing for a Q4 2026 debut—and CFO Sarah Friar, who flags the timeline as overly aggressive given massive compute spending projections ($121 billion by 2028), delayed profitability until potentially 2029, and slowing revenue growth. The firm's March 2026 $122 billion funding round cemented an $852 billion post-money valuation, fueling bets on 750 billion–1 trillion (25.5%) or 500–750 billion (24%) closing market caps if it lists, though Florida's attorney general probe and Anthropic's narrowing revenue gap heighten competitive and regulatory risks. Key swing factors include Q4 filing progress and investor scrutiny on moat sustainability.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNo IPO by December 31, 2027 31%
750B–1T 23%
1T–1.25T 14%
1.25T–1.5T 11%
$14,113 Обс.
$14,113 Обс.
<500B
7%
500–750B
25%
750B–1T
23%
1T–1.25T
17%
1.25T–1.5T
11%
1.5T+
16%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
31%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 31%
750B–1T 23%
1T–1.25T 14%
1.25T–1.5T 11%
$14,113 Обс.
$14,113 Обс.
<500B
7%
500–750B
25%
750B–1T
23%
1T–1.25T
17%
1.25T–1.5T
11%
1.5T+
16%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
31%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO by December 31, 2027, with no listing priced at a 32% implied probability amid internal tensions between CEO Sam Altman—pushing for a Q4 2026 debut—and CFO Sarah Friar, who flags the timeline as overly aggressive given massive compute spending projections ($121 billion by 2028), delayed profitability until potentially 2029, and slowing revenue growth. The firm's March 2026 $122 billion funding round cemented an $852 billion post-money valuation, fueling bets on 750 billion–1 trillion (25.5%) or 500–750 billion (24%) closing market caps if it lists, though Florida's attorney general probe and Anthropic's narrowing revenue gap heighten competitive and regulatory risks. Key swing factors include Q4 filing progress and investor scrutiny on moat sustainability.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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