The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, with continuing revenue then covering only 78 percent of scheduled benefits. The combined Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, unchanged from last year, after which 83 percent of benefits would be payable. The outlook worsened due to lower fertility rates, reduced net immigration, and revenue losses from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in 2025. As of September 2026, bipartisan proposals to raise the payroll tax cap on high earners have gained attention as potential offsets to the roughly $31 trillion 75-year shortfall, though no major reforms have advanced. Any legislative changes before 2032 could alter depletion timing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSocial Security Insolvent by...?
Social Security Insolvent by...?
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2028
December 31, 2027
11%
December 31, 2028
17%
$394 Обс.
December 31, 2027
$349 Обс.
11%
December 31, 2028
$45 Обс.
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, with continuing revenue then covering only 78 percent of scheduled benefits. The combined Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, unchanged from last year, after which 83 percent of benefits would be payable. The outlook worsened due to lower fertility rates, reduced net immigration, and revenue losses from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in 2025. As of September 2026, bipartisan proposals to raise the payroll tax cap on high earners have gained attention as potential offsets to the roughly $31 trillion 75-year shortfall, though no major reforms have advanced. Any legislative changes before 2032 could alter depletion timing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$394Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2029Ринок відкрито
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, with continuing revenue then covering only 78 percent of scheduled benefits. The combined Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, unchanged from last year, after which 83 percent of benefits would be payable. The outlook worsened due to lower fertility rates, reduced net immigration, and revenue losses from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in 2025. As of September 2026, bipartisan proposals to raise the payroll tax cap on high earners have gained attention as potential offsets to the roughly $31 trillion 75-year shortfall, though no major reforms have advanced. Any legislative changes before 2032 could alter depletion timing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$394Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2029Ринок відкрито
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than prior estimates, with continuing revenue then covering only 78 percent of scheduled benefits. The combined Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034, unchanged from last year, after which 83 percent of benefits would be payable. The outlook worsened due to lower fertility rates, reduced net immigration, and revenue losses from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted in 2025. As of September 2026, bipartisan proposals to raise the payroll tax cap on high earners have gained attention as potential offsets to the roughly $31 trillion 75-year shortfall, though no major reforms have advanced. Any legislative changes before 2032 could alter depletion timing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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