Traders assign a 98% implied probability against a U.S. default by 2027 because the debt limit was raised by $5 trillion in July 2025 to $41.1 trillion, leaving substantial headroom into mid-to-late 2027 before the Treasury would exhaust borrowing authority and extraordinary measures. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of any X-date in recent cycles, reflecting bipartisan recognition of the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow a missed Treasury payment on notes, bonds, or bills. With debt subject to the limit now near $40 trillion, scheduled fiscal debates and routine legislative action are expected to maintain payment continuity through the resolution window. A prolonged impasse extending beyond available cash reserves and accounting maneuvers remains the primary scenario that could still shift outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
2% шанс
$17,090 Обс.
$17,090 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
2% шанс
$17,090 Обс.
$17,090 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 98% implied probability against a U.S. default by 2027 because the debt limit was raised by $5 trillion in July 2025 to $41.1 trillion, leaving substantial headroom into mid-to-late 2027 before the Treasury would exhaust borrowing authority and extraordinary measures. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of any X-date in recent cycles, reflecting bipartisan recognition of the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow a missed Treasury payment on notes, bonds, or bills. With debt subject to the limit now near $40 trillion, scheduled fiscal debates and routine legislative action are expected to maintain payment continuity through the resolution window. A prolonged impasse extending beyond available cash reserves and accounting maneuvers remains the primary scenario that could still shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Обсяг
$17,090Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 98% implied probability against a U.S. default by 2027 because the debt limit was raised by $5 trillion in July 2025 to $41.1 trillion, leaving substantial headroom into mid-to-late 2027 before the Treasury would exhaust borrowing authority and extraordinary measures. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of any X-date in recent cycles, reflecting bipartisan recognition of the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow a missed Treasury payment on notes, bonds, or bills. With debt subject to the limit now near $40 trillion, scheduled fiscal debates and routine legislative action are expected to maintain payment continuity through the resolution window. A prolonged impasse extending beyond available cash reserves and accounting maneuvers remains the primary scenario that could still shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Обсяг
$17,090Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98% implied probability against a U.S. default by 2027 because the debt limit was raised by $5 trillion in July 2025 to $41.1 trillion, leaving substantial headroom into mid-to-late 2027 before the Treasury would exhaust borrowing authority and extraordinary measures. Congress has repeatedly suspended or increased the ceiling ahead of any X-date in recent cycles, reflecting bipartisan recognition of the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow a missed Treasury payment on notes, bonds, or bills. With debt subject to the limit now near $40 trillion, scheduled fiscal debates and routine legislative action are expected to maintain payment continuity through the resolution window. A prolonged impasse extending beyond available cash reserves and accounting maneuvers remains the primary scenario that could still shift outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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