Congress enacted a $5 trillion debt limit increase in July 2025 through budget reconciliation legislation, setting the ceiling at $41.1 trillion and providing fiscal runway expected to extend into 2027. Lawmakers have consistently raised or suspended the limit more than 100 times historically to prevent default, even amid partisan negotiations and projected deficits. With the current buffer in place and no immediate statutory deadline before mid-to-late 2027, traders assign the overwhelming majority of probability to continued legislative resolution rather than a breach of obligations. Ongoing net interest costs and mandatory spending sustain borrowing needs, yet institutional incentives and past precedent reinforce expectations that Congress will act in advance of any exhaustion of Treasury cash or extraordinary measures.