Polymarket traders price a fragmented year-end 2026 S&P 500 close, with under $6,000 leading at 31.5% implied probability amid March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—delaying Fed funds rate cuts from the current 3.5%-3.75% range and stoking recession fears despite the index's recent climb to 7,126. Closely trailing at 23% is $7,000-$7,500, buoyed by CY2026 earnings growth forecasts of 17.4% and AI-driven productivity gains, as echoed in Goldman Sachs' 7,600 target. Competitive dynamics hinge on inflation persistence versus corporate resilience, with Middle East de-escalation (e.g., Strait of Hormuz reopening) and upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) plus Q1 earnings as pivotal catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 18%
$6,000-$6,500 14%
$19,167 Обс.
$19,167 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
32%
$6,000-$6,500
14%
$6,500-$7,000
18%
$7,000-$7,500
23%
$7,500-$8,000
10%
>$8,000
11%
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 18%
$6,000-$6,500 14%
$19,167 Обс.
$19,167 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$11,576 Обс.
32%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,351 Обс.
14%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,869 Обс.
18%
$7,000-$7,500
$923 Обс.
23%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,654 Обс.
10%
>$8,000
$1,794 Обс.
11%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a fragmented year-end 2026 S&P 500 close, with under $6,000 leading at 31.5% implied probability amid March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—delaying Fed funds rate cuts from the current 3.5%-3.75% range and stoking recession fears despite the index's recent climb to 7,126. Closely trailing at 23% is $7,000-$7,500, buoyed by CY2026 earnings growth forecasts of 17.4% and AI-driven productivity gains, as echoed in Goldman Sachs' 7,600 target. Competitive dynamics hinge on inflation persistence versus corporate resilience, with Middle East de-escalation (e.g., Strait of Hormuz reopening) and upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) plus Q1 earnings as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Ринок відкрито: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Обсяг
$19,167Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a fragmented year-end 2026 S&P 500 close, with under $6,000 leading at 31.5% implied probability amid March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—delaying Fed funds rate cuts from the current 3.5%-3.75% range and stoking recession fears despite the index's recent climb to 7,126. Closely trailing at 23% is $7,000-$7,500, buoyed by CY2026 earnings growth forecasts of 17.4% and AI-driven productivity gains, as echoed in Goldman Sachs' 7,600 target. Competitive dynamics hinge on inflation persistence versus corporate resilience, with Middle East de-escalation (e.g., Strait of Hormuz reopening) and upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) plus Q1 earnings as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Обсяг
$19,167Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a fragmented year-end 2026 S&P 500 close, with under $6,000 leading at 31.5% implied probability amid March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—delaying Fed funds rate cuts from the current 3.5%-3.75% range and stoking recession fears despite the index's recent climb to 7,126. Closely trailing at 23% is $7,000-$7,500, buoyed by CY2026 earnings growth forecasts of 17.4% and AI-driven productivity gains, as echoed in Goldman Sachs' 7,600 target. Competitive dynamics hinge on inflation persistence versus corporate resilience, with Middle East de-escalation (e.g., Strait of Hormuz reopening) and upcoming April CPI (May 12 release) plus Q1 earnings as pivotal catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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