Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability of 40% to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting sustained earnings growth, AI-driven productivity gains, and resilient corporate balance sheets amid moderate GDP expansion. Recent inflation readings and labor market data have supported expectations for a stable Federal Reserve policy path, keeping Treasury yields from spiking and bolstering equity valuations. Upcoming catalysts such as the September FOMC decision and third-quarter earnings releases could refine these odds if growth or rate trajectories shift materially. Market-implied levels also price in historical base rates for late-cycle rallies, though elevated valuations and external risks introduce downside scenarios below 7,000.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
>$8,000 44%
$7,500-$8,000 23%
$7,000-$7,500 19%
$6,500-$7,000 10%
$41,109 Обс.
$41,109 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
6%
$6,000-$6,500
7%
$6,500-$7,000
10%
$7,000-$7,500
19%
$7,500-$8,000
23%
>$8,000
41%
>$8,000 44%
$7,500-$8,000 23%
$7,000-$7,500 19%
$6,500-$7,000 10%
$41,109 Обс.
$41,109 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$21,017 Обс.
6%
$6,000-$6,500
$2,365 Обс.
7%
$6,500-$7,000
$4,557 Обс.
10%
$7,000-$7,500
$2,607 Обс.
19%
$7,500-$8,000
$4,204 Обс.
23%
>$8,000
$6,359 Обс.
41%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability of 40% to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting sustained earnings growth, AI-driven productivity gains, and resilient corporate balance sheets amid moderate GDP expansion. Recent inflation readings and labor market data have supported expectations for a stable Federal Reserve policy path, keeping Treasury yields from spiking and bolstering equity valuations. Upcoming catalysts such as the September FOMC decision and third-quarter earnings releases could refine these odds if growth or rate trajectories shift materially. Market-implied levels also price in historical base rates for late-cycle rallies, though elevated valuations and external risks introduce downside scenarios below 7,000.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Ринок відкрито: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Обсяг
$41,109Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability of 40% to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting sustained earnings growth, AI-driven productivity gains, and resilient corporate balance sheets amid moderate GDP expansion. Recent inflation readings and labor market data have supported expectations for a stable Federal Reserve policy path, keeping Treasury yields from spiking and bolstering equity valuations. Upcoming catalysts such as the September FOMC decision and third-quarter earnings releases could refine these odds if growth or rate trajectories shift materially. Market-implied levels also price in historical base rates for late-cycle rallies, though elevated valuations and external risks introduce downside scenarios below 7,000.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Обсяг
$41,109Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability of 40% to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting sustained earnings growth, AI-driven productivity gains, and resilient corporate balance sheets amid moderate GDP expansion. Recent inflation readings and labor market data have supported expectations for a stable Federal Reserve policy path, keeping Treasury yields from spiking and bolstering equity valuations. Upcoming catalysts such as the September FOMC decision and third-quarter earnings releases could refine these odds if growth or rate trajectories shift materially. Market-implied levels also price in historical base rates for late-cycle rallies, though elevated valuations and external risks introduce downside scenarios below 7,000.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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