**Trader consensus on the U.S. effective tariff rate on Chinese goods as of December 31, 2026, remains tightly clustered around the 5–25% range because of the fragile bilateral truce reached in late 2025 and extended through November 10, 2026.** That arrangement capped additional duties near 20% after earlier spikes above 100% were rolled back following Supreme Court rulings on emergency authorities and subsequent Section 301 actions. Recent developments include July 2026 implementation of a 12.5% forced-labor tariff, reports of a planned 7.5% overcapacity duty that would restore the 20% ceiling, and ongoing talks between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials on reciprocal reductions for roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods. The September 24 White House meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi is the immediate catalyst, as outcomes on truce extension, further Section 301 findings, or limited MFN-level cuts could shift the weighted average rate into the lower or mid-20% buckets by year-end. Sectoral duties on steel, EVs, semiconductors, and critical minerals add layering that keeps the precise December 31 figure uncertain.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено25–35% 29%
5–15% 27%
35%+ 26%
<5% 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
<5%
16%
5–15%
27%
15–25%
14%
25–35%
29%
35%+
26%
25–35% 29%
5–15% 27%
35%+ 26%
<5% 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
<5%
$0 Обс.
16%
5–15%
$0 Обс.
27%
15–25%
$0 Обс.
14%
25–35%
$0 Обс.
29%
35%+
$20 Обс.
26%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.**Trader consensus on the U.S. effective tariff rate on Chinese goods as of December 31, 2026, remains tightly clustered around the 5–25% range because of the fragile bilateral truce reached in late 2025 and extended through November 10, 2026.** That arrangement capped additional duties near 20% after earlier spikes above 100% were rolled back following Supreme Court rulings on emergency authorities and subsequent Section 301 actions. Recent developments include July 2026 implementation of a 12.5% forced-labor tariff, reports of a planned 7.5% overcapacity duty that would restore the 20% ceiling, and ongoing talks between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials on reciprocal reductions for roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods. The September 24 White House meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi is the immediate catalyst, as outcomes on truce extension, further Section 301 findings, or limited MFN-level cuts could shift the weighted average rate into the lower or mid-20% buckets by year-end. Sectoral duties on steel, EVs, semiconductors, and critical minerals add layering that keeps the precise December 31 figure uncertain.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.**Trader consensus on the U.S. effective tariff rate on Chinese goods as of December 31, 2026, remains tightly clustered around the 5–25% range because of the fragile bilateral truce reached in late 2025 and extended through November 10, 2026.** That arrangement capped additional duties near 20% after earlier spikes above 100% were rolled back following Supreme Court rulings on emergency authorities and subsequent Section 301 actions. Recent developments include July 2026 implementation of a 12.5% forced-labor tariff, reports of a planned 7.5% overcapacity duty that would restore the 20% ceiling, and ongoing talks between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials on reciprocal reductions for roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods. The September 24 White House meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi is the immediate catalyst, as outcomes on truce extension, further Section 301 findings, or limited MFN-level cuts could shift the weighted average rate into the lower or mid-20% buckets by year-end. Sectoral duties on steel, EVs, semiconductors, and critical minerals add layering that keeps the precise December 31 figure uncertain.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 22, 2026, 4:05 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the U.S. effective tariff rate on Chinese goods as of December 31, 2026, remains tightly clustered around the 5–25% range because of the fragile bilateral truce reached in late 2025 and extended through November 10, 2026.** That arrangement capped additional duties near 20% after earlier spikes above 100% were rolled back following Supreme Court rulings on emergency authorities and subsequent Section 301 actions. Recent developments include July 2026 implementation of a 12.5% forced-labor tariff, reports of a planned 7.5% overcapacity duty that would restore the 20% ceiling, and ongoing talks between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials on reciprocal reductions for roughly $30 billion in non-critical goods. The September 24 White House meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi is the immediate catalyst, as outcomes on truce extension, further Section 301 findings, or limited MFN-level cuts could shift the weighted average rate into the lower or mid-20% buckets by year-end. Sectoral duties on steel, EVs, semiconductors, and critical minerals add layering that keeps the precise December 31 figure uncertain.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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