The market's strong 91% trader consensus against a Vatican III in 2026 stems from the complete lack of official signals or preparatory steps under Pope Leo XIV, who instead has centered his papacy on deepening reception of Vatican II through ongoing catecheses and synodality initiatives. Recent Vatican documents marking the 60th anniversary of *Nostra Aetate* reinforce dialogue and implementation of existing conciliar teachings rather than convening a new ecumenical council, while the roadmap toward an Ecclesial Assembly in 2028 channels reform energy into structured local and continental stages. Historical precedent shows such global gatherings require years of advance planning, making a sudden 2026 launch improbable absent major unforeseen developments like a dramatic papal initiative or crisis shifting priorities.