Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no Atlantic hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—will form by May 31, driven by unfavorable climatological conditions persisting into late spring. National Hurricane Center advisories through April 17 confirm no tropical cyclones active, with sea surface temperatures across the main development region remaining below the 26.5°C threshold essential for hurricane genesis amid elevated wind shear and dry mid-level air. Historically, no Atlantic hurricanes have formed before June 1 since reliable satellite-era records began, reinforcing the market-implied 95.5% probability for "No." Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous rapid warming in the subtropical Atlantic or an unforeseen low-shear disturbance by mid-May, though Colorado State University's April outlook anticipates below-normal overall activity under transitioning La Niña influences; watch NHC's resumed Tropical Weather Outlooks starting May 15 for updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$42,721 Обс.
$42,721 Обс.
May 31, 2026
$42,721 Обс.
$42,721 Обс.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no Atlantic hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—will form by May 31, driven by unfavorable climatological conditions persisting into late spring. National Hurricane Center advisories through April 17 confirm no tropical cyclones active, with sea surface temperatures across the main development region remaining below the 26.5°C threshold essential for hurricane genesis amid elevated wind shear and dry mid-level air. Historically, no Atlantic hurricanes have formed before June 1 since reliable satellite-era records began, reinforcing the market-implied 95.5% probability for "No." Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous rapid warming in the subtropical Atlantic or an unforeseen low-shear disturbance by mid-May, though Colorado State University's April outlook anticipates below-normal overall activity under transitioning La Niña influences; watch NHC's resumed Tropical Weather Outlooks starting May 15 for updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Обсяг
$42,721Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no Atlantic hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—will form by May 31, driven by unfavorable climatological conditions persisting into late spring. National Hurricane Center advisories through April 17 confirm no tropical cyclones active, with sea surface temperatures across the main development region remaining below the 26.5°C threshold essential for hurricane genesis amid elevated wind shear and dry mid-level air. Historically, no Atlantic hurricanes have formed before June 1 since reliable satellite-era records began, reinforcing the market-implied 95.5% probability for "No." Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous rapid warming in the subtropical Atlantic or an unforeseen low-shear disturbance by mid-May, though Colorado State University's April outlook anticipates below-normal overall activity under transitioning La Niña influences; watch NHC's resumed Tropical Weather Outlooks starting May 15 for updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Обсяг
$42,721Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that no Atlantic hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 74 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—will form by May 31, driven by unfavorable climatological conditions persisting into late spring. National Hurricane Center advisories through April 17 confirm no tropical cyclones active, with sea surface temperatures across the main development region remaining below the 26.5°C threshold essential for hurricane genesis amid elevated wind shear and dry mid-level air. Historically, no Atlantic hurricanes have formed before June 1 since reliable satellite-era records began, reinforcing the market-implied 95.5% probability for "No." Realistic shifts could arise from anomalous rapid warming in the subtropical Atlantic or an unforeseen low-shear disturbance by mid-May, though Colorado State University's April outlook anticipates below-normal overall activity under transitioning La Niña influences; watch NHC's resumed Tropical Weather Outlooks starting May 15 for updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання