Current market-implied odds for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 reflect the absence of extreme events meeting resolution thresholds through mid-year, with official monitoring from NOAA and USGS showing typical seasonal patterns rather than record-breaking activity. Early 2026 brought wildfires and flooding in California and parts of Europe and Asia, yet these fell short of criteria such as magnitude, category, or geographic impact thresholds often used in similar contracts. Hurricane and tropical cyclone seasons remain active, but model consensus from the National Hurricane Center indicates average intensification and landfall risks through December, consistent with historical baselines. Upcoming peak months and any revised seismic or ENSO data could shift sentiment if thresholds are approached, though current conditions support trader consensus favoring no resolution event.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$221,654 Обс.
$221,654 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$221,654 Обс.
$221,654 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current market-implied odds for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 reflect the absence of extreme events meeting resolution thresholds through mid-year, with official monitoring from NOAA and USGS showing typical seasonal patterns rather than record-breaking activity. Early 2026 brought wildfires and flooding in California and parts of Europe and Asia, yet these fell short of criteria such as magnitude, category, or geographic impact thresholds often used in similar contracts. Hurricane and tropical cyclone seasons remain active, but model consensus from the National Hurricane Center indicates average intensification and landfall risks through December, consistent with historical baselines. Upcoming peak months and any revised seismic or ENSO data could shift sentiment if thresholds are approached, though current conditions support trader consensus favoring no resolution event.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$221,654Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current market-implied odds for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 reflect the absence of extreme events meeting resolution thresholds through mid-year, with official monitoring from NOAA and USGS showing typical seasonal patterns rather than record-breaking activity. Early 2026 brought wildfires and flooding in California and parts of Europe and Asia, yet these fell short of criteria such as magnitude, category, or geographic impact thresholds often used in similar contracts. Hurricane and tropical cyclone seasons remain active, but model consensus from the National Hurricane Center indicates average intensification and landfall risks through December, consistent with historical baselines. Upcoming peak months and any revised seismic or ENSO data could shift sentiment if thresholds are approached, though current conditions support trader consensus favoring no resolution event.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$221,654Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current market-implied odds for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026 reflect the absence of extreme events meeting resolution thresholds through mid-year, with official monitoring from NOAA and USGS showing typical seasonal patterns rather than record-breaking activity. Early 2026 brought wildfires and flooding in California and parts of Europe and Asia, yet these fell short of criteria such as magnitude, category, or geographic impact thresholds often used in similar contracts. Hurricane and tropical cyclone seasons remain active, but model consensus from the National Hurricane Center indicates average intensification and landfall risks through December, consistent with historical baselines. Upcoming peak months and any revised seismic or ENSO data could shift sentiment if thresholds are approached, though current conditions support trader consensus favoring no resolution event.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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