Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 10-kiloton-or-greater meteor strike, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake through mid-April, per USGS and NOAA records. Recent forecasts from Colorado State University and AccuWeather predict below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity due to transitioning weak La Niña conditions to neutral, reducing intensification risks on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Globally, seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no precursors for extreme events, with M8.5+ quakes averaging once per decade historically. Key uncertainties persist into June-November hurricane season and year-end, with NHC updates and NASA near-Earth object surveillance pivotal for shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$204,562 Обс.
$204,562 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$204,562 Обс.
$204,562 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 10-kiloton-or-greater meteor strike, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake through mid-April, per USGS and NOAA records. Recent forecasts from Colorado State University and AccuWeather predict below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity due to transitioning weak La Niña conditions to neutral, reducing intensification risks on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Globally, seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no precursors for extreme events, with M8.5+ quakes averaging once per decade historically. Key uncertainties persist into June-November hurricane season and year-end, with NHC updates and NASA near-Earth object surveillance pivotal for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$204,562Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 10-kiloton-or-greater meteor strike, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake through mid-April, per USGS and NOAA records. Recent forecasts from Colorado State University and AccuWeather predict below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity due to transitioning weak La Niña conditions to neutral, reducing intensification risks on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Globally, seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no precursors for extreme events, with M8.5+ quakes averaging once per decade historically. Key uncertainties persist into June-November hurricane season and year-end, with NHC updates and NASA near-Earth object surveillance pivotal for shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$204,562Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 72.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall, 10-kiloton-or-greater meteor strike, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake through mid-April, per USGS and NOAA records. Recent forecasts from Colorado State University and AccuWeather predict below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity due to transitioning weak La Niña conditions to neutral, reducing intensification risks on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Globally, seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no precursors for extreme events, with M8.5+ quakes averaging once per decade historically. Key uncertainties persist into June-November hurricane season and year-end, with NHC updates and NASA near-Earth object surveillance pivotal for shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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