Traders assign a 75% probability to No for a major natural disaster in 2026 because extreme events meeting the resolution criteria—such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake, volcanic eruption of VEI 6 or greater, or a meteor strike exceeding 250 kilotons—occur infrequently on historical timescales. Official monitoring by the USGS and global seismic networks shows no current indicators of such high-magnitude activity building in active fault zones or volcanic systems, while NOAA and NASA data track no near-Earth objects posing imminent collision risk this year. Model consensus from long-term catalogs places the annual baseline probability well below 30%, supporting the current market-implied odds amid stable conditions through mid-2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$221,615 Обс.
$221,615 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$221,615 Обс.
$221,615 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 75% probability to No for a major natural disaster in 2026 because extreme events meeting the resolution criteria—such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake, volcanic eruption of VEI 6 or greater, or a meteor strike exceeding 250 kilotons—occur infrequently on historical timescales. Official monitoring by the USGS and global seismic networks shows no current indicators of such high-magnitude activity building in active fault zones or volcanic systems, while NOAA and NASA data track no near-Earth objects posing imminent collision risk this year. Model consensus from long-term catalogs places the annual baseline probability well below 30%, supporting the current market-implied odds amid stable conditions through mid-2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$221,615Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 75% probability to No for a major natural disaster in 2026 because extreme events meeting the resolution criteria—such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake, volcanic eruption of VEI 6 or greater, or a meteor strike exceeding 250 kilotons—occur infrequently on historical timescales. Official monitoring by the USGS and global seismic networks shows no current indicators of such high-magnitude activity building in active fault zones or volcanic systems, while NOAA and NASA data track no near-Earth objects posing imminent collision risk this year. Model consensus from long-term catalogs places the annual baseline probability well below 30%, supporting the current market-implied odds amid stable conditions through mid-2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$221,615Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 75% probability to No for a major natural disaster in 2026 because extreme events meeting the resolution criteria—such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake, volcanic eruption of VEI 6 or greater, or a meteor strike exceeding 250 kilotons—occur infrequently on historical timescales. Official monitoring by the USGS and global seismic networks shows no current indicators of such high-magnitude activity building in active fault zones or volcanic systems, while NOAA and NASA data track no near-Earth objects posing imminent collision risk this year. Model consensus from long-term catalogs places the annual baseline probability well below 30%, supporting the current market-implied odds amid stable conditions through mid-2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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