No leads at 87% implied probability because no qualifying events have occurred through early September 2026. NOAA and NHC records show no Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls amid neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions and persistent wind shear that have kept Atlantic activity below climatological norms. USGS data indicate no earthquakes reaching magnitude 8.5, while global volcanic monitoring reports no VEI 6 or higher eruptions. Meteor impact records similarly remain clear of 10 kt+ events. These absences align with historical patterns where such extreme thresholds occur infrequently, though the final months of the Atlantic hurricane season and ongoing seismic surveillance represent the primary remaining variables that could alter outcomes before year-end resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
13% шанс
$245,819 Обс.
$245,819 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
13% шанс
$245,819 Обс.
$245,819 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No leads at 87% implied probability because no qualifying events have occurred through early September 2026. NOAA and NHC records show no Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls amid neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions and persistent wind shear that have kept Atlantic activity below climatological norms. USGS data indicate no earthquakes reaching magnitude 8.5, while global volcanic monitoring reports no VEI 6 or higher eruptions. Meteor impact records similarly remain clear of 10 kt+ events. These absences align with historical patterns where such extreme thresholds occur infrequently, though the final months of the Atlantic hurricane season and ongoing seismic surveillance represent the primary remaining variables that could alter outcomes before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$245,819Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No leads at 87% implied probability because no qualifying events have occurred through early September 2026. NOAA and NHC records show no Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls amid neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions and persistent wind shear that have kept Atlantic activity below climatological norms. USGS data indicate no earthquakes reaching magnitude 8.5, while global volcanic monitoring reports no VEI 6 or higher eruptions. Meteor impact records similarly remain clear of 10 kt+ events. These absences align with historical patterns where such extreme thresholds occur infrequently, though the final months of the Atlantic hurricane season and ongoing seismic surveillance represent the primary remaining variables that could alter outcomes before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$245,819Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...No leads at 87% implied probability because no qualifying events have occurred through early September 2026. NOAA and NHC records show no Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls amid neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions and persistent wind shear that have kept Atlantic activity below climatological norms. USGS data indicate no earthquakes reaching magnitude 8.5, while global volcanic monitoring reports no VEI 6 or higher eruptions. Meteor impact records similarly remain clear of 10 kt+ events. These absences align with historical patterns where such extreme thresholds occur infrequently, though the final months of the Atlantic hurricane season and ongoing seismic surveillance represent the primary remaining variables that could alter outcomes before year-end resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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