Trader consensus favoring "No" at roughly 74% implied probability reflects the historical rarity of events meeting the market's high thresholds for resolution, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or major meteor impact. Official seismic networks including the USGS report typical global rates of only one or two magnitude 8+ quakes per decade, with 9.0+ events occurring far less frequently. Volcanic observatories note that VEI 6 eruptions average once per century or longer, while near-Earth object monitoring by NASA shows no known objects on collision courses in the near term. With 2026 now halfway through and no qualifying incidents recorded, current monitoring data and climatological baselines continue to support the market's positioning ahead of further updates from global agencies.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$221,654 Обс.
$221,654 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$221,654 Обс.
$221,654 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at roughly 74% implied probability reflects the historical rarity of events meeting the market's high thresholds for resolution, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or major meteor impact. Official seismic networks including the USGS report typical global rates of only one or two magnitude 8+ quakes per decade, with 9.0+ events occurring far less frequently. Volcanic observatories note that VEI 6 eruptions average once per century or longer, while near-Earth object monitoring by NASA shows no known objects on collision courses in the near term. With 2026 now halfway through and no qualifying incidents recorded, current monitoring data and climatological baselines continue to support the market's positioning ahead of further updates from global agencies.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$221,654Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at roughly 74% implied probability reflects the historical rarity of events meeting the market's high thresholds for resolution, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or major meteor impact. Official seismic networks including the USGS report typical global rates of only one or two magnitude 8+ quakes per decade, with 9.0+ events occurring far less frequently. Volcanic observatories note that VEI 6 eruptions average once per century or longer, while near-Earth object monitoring by NASA shows no known objects on collision courses in the near term. With 2026 now halfway through and no qualifying incidents recorded, current monitoring data and climatological baselines continue to support the market's positioning ahead of further updates from global agencies.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$221,654Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at roughly 74% implied probability reflects the historical rarity of events meeting the market's high thresholds for resolution, such as a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or major meteor impact. Official seismic networks including the USGS report typical global rates of only one or two magnitude 8+ quakes per decade, with 9.0+ events occurring far less frequently. Volcanic observatories note that VEI 6 eruptions average once per century or longer, while near-Earth object monitoring by NASA shows no known objects on collision courses in the near term. With 2026 now halfway through and no qualifying incidents recorded, current monitoring data and climatological baselines continue to support the market's positioning ahead of further updates from global agencies.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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