Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, which occur globally roughly once per 30–100 years according to USGS seismic catalogs—none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. Current conditions show no precursors in major subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai, or Sumatra, where annual probabilities remain below 0.3% per USGS hazard models; Cascadia's 10–15% chance over 50 years equates to under 0.3% annually. Recent 2026 developments, including February stress tests revealing Cascadia's quiescence and April structural imaging, refine long-term risks without signaling short-term rupture. With eight months remaining, USGS real-time monitoring via global networks underscores baseline low odds absent anomalous strain buildup.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$179,333 Обс.
$179,333 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$179,333 Обс.
$179,333 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, which occur globally roughly once per 30–100 years according to USGS seismic catalogs—none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. Current conditions show no precursors in major subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai, or Sumatra, where annual probabilities remain below 0.3% per USGS hazard models; Cascadia's 10–15% chance over 50 years equates to under 0.3% annually. Recent 2026 developments, including February stress tests revealing Cascadia's quiescence and April structural imaging, refine long-term risks without signaling short-term rupture. With eight months remaining, USGS real-time monitoring via global networks underscores baseline low odds absent anomalous strain buildup.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Обсяг
$179,333Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, which occur globally roughly once per 30–100 years according to USGS seismic catalogs—none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. Current conditions show no precursors in major subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai, or Sumatra, where annual probabilities remain below 0.3% per USGS hazard models; Cascadia's 10–15% chance over 50 years equates to under 0.3% annually. Recent 2026 developments, including February stress tests revealing Cascadia's quiescence and April structural imaging, refine long-term risks without signaling short-term rupture. With eight months remaining, USGS real-time monitoring via global networks underscores baseline low odds absent anomalous strain buildup.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Обсяг
$179,333Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such megathrust events, which occur globally roughly once per 30–100 years according to USGS seismic catalogs—none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. Current conditions show no precursors in major subduction zones like Cascadia, Nankai, or Sumatra, where annual probabilities remain below 0.3% per USGS hazard models; Cascadia's 10–15% chance over 50 years equates to under 0.3% annually. Recent 2026 developments, including February stress tests revealing Cascadia's quiescence and April structural imaging, refine long-term risks without signaling short-term rupture. With eight months remaining, USGS real-time monitoring via global networks underscores baseline low odds absent anomalous strain buildup.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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