**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 92.3% due to the exceptional rarity of Mw 9.0+ events on the moment magnitude scale.** These megathrust earthquakes require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones, with global recurrence intervals typically spanning decades to centuries based on paleoseismic and instrumental records. Only five such events have occurred since 1900—the 1960 Valdivia (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 1952 Kamchatka (9.0), 2004 Sumatra (9.1), and 2011 Tohoku (9.1)—with the most recent being the 2025 Kamchatka Mw 8.8. Recent activity has stayed below the threshold, and no official monitoring data from USGS or similar agencies indicate elevated short-term risk in the remaining months of 2026. Realistic challenges include the inherent unpredictability of fault behavior, where an unexpected full-margin rupture on a high-slip zone could occur without clear precursors, though such scenarios remain statistically remote given the brief time window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
7% шанс
$311,780 Обс.
$311,780 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
7% шанс
$311,780 Обс.
$311,780 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 92.3% due to the exceptional rarity of Mw 9.0+ events on the moment magnitude scale.** These megathrust earthquakes require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones, with global recurrence intervals typically spanning decades to centuries based on paleoseismic and instrumental records. Only five such events have occurred since 1900—the 1960 Valdivia (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 1952 Kamchatka (9.0), 2004 Sumatra (9.1), and 2011 Tohoku (9.1)—with the most recent being the 2025 Kamchatka Mw 8.8. Recent activity has stayed below the threshold, and no official monitoring data from USGS or similar agencies indicate elevated short-term risk in the remaining months of 2026.
Realistic challenges include the inherent unpredictability of fault behavior, where an unexpected full-margin rupture on a high-slip zone could occur without clear precursors, though such scenarios remain statistically remote given the brief time window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Обсяг
$311,780Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 92.3% due to the exceptional rarity of Mw 9.0+ events on the moment magnitude scale.** These megathrust earthquakes require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones, with global recurrence intervals typically spanning decades to centuries based on paleoseismic and instrumental records. Only five such events have occurred since 1900—the 1960 Valdivia (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 1952 Kamchatka (9.0), 2004 Sumatra (9.1), and 2011 Tohoku (9.1)—with the most recent being the 2025 Kamchatka Mw 8.8. Recent activity has stayed below the threshold, and no official monitoring data from USGS or similar agencies indicate elevated short-term risk in the remaining months of 2026.
Realistic challenges include the inherent unpredictability of fault behavior, where an unexpected full-margin rupture on a high-slip zone could occur without clear precursors, though such scenarios remain statistically remote given the brief time window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Обсяг
$311,780Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 92.3% due to the exceptional rarity of Mw 9.0+ events on the moment magnitude scale.** These megathrust earthquakes require simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zones, with global recurrence intervals typically spanning decades to centuries based on paleoseismic and instrumental records. Only five such events have occurred since 1900—the 1960 Valdivia (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 1952 Kamchatka (9.0), 2004 Sumatra (9.1), and 2011 Tohoku (9.1)—with the most recent being the 2025 Kamchatka Mw 8.8. Recent activity has stayed below the threshold, and no official monitoring data from USGS or similar agencies indicate elevated short-term risk in the remaining months of 2026. Realistic challenges include the inherent unpredictability of fault behavior, where an unexpected full-margin rupture on a high-slip zone could occur without clear precursors, though such scenarios remain statistically remote given the brief time window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання